On the eve of the meeting of the Board of Directors of Tim of today, which will probably ask the two teams competing for the Network (the one formed by CDP e Macquarie And that of KKR), to increase offers, the MY BAG sent an unequivocal signal (-4,43%) to Tim's top management but above all to its restless shareholders, from the French Vivendi (23,8%) and the very Italian Cassa depositi e prestiti (9,81%).
TIM: THE SELL-OFF, THE RELAUNCH OF THE TWO OFFERS AND THE DREAMS OF VIVENDI
What does the sell-off that once again overwhelmed Tim's stock mean a few hours after his board meeting? That the market does not see clearly in the future of the first Italian telephone company, that the way of selling the network remains difficult but that the alternatives are even more so. It is clear that Tim's top management expects something more from the two consortiums that would like the Network but it must be recognized that the offers have increased from 14 billion in July 2022 to around 20 billion today and that, although insufficient compared to Vivendi's requests , reward the constant pressing of the company's management. Can more be done? Maybe, but the current offers are already in line with the analysts' average values and miracles don't seem to be the order of the day. Perhaps an improvement in the offers is possible but it is unlikely that it will meet Vivendi's expectations which, after having lost over 3 billion in its investment in Tim, now would like to recover at least in part from the capital losses by demanding 31 billion for the Network that nobody is for now ready to acknowledge him.
Obviously, only if the offers were raised, would Tim's board of directors grant exclusivity to those who offer the most and give the most guarantees for the defense of work and development. But what happens if neither of the two offers is ultimately deemed fair? Of course, the title would continue to roll down the Stock Exchange but the redemption would not be around the corner anyway.
TIM: WHAT IF THE NETWORK SALES FAILS?
Barring twists and turns, there are basically three alternatives to the sale of the Network:
1) you sell the most valuable asset – ie Tim Brazil– . but it would be a boomerang because Brazil is a mine of profits that would fail in house sales;
2) the company is recapitalised with a capital increase of at least 5 billion which would allow the top management to refinance the debt but which few shareholders would like to own;
3) faced with the increasingly low value of the stock on the Stock Exchange, the French of Vivendi, who already hold 23,7% of the company, could let themselves be seduced by the idea of launching aOpa on Tim at extraordinarily convenient prices, considering that today the Tim share is worth 0,25 euro. But there is a problem that goes beyond the capital needed to support the takeover bid: would the Meloni government ever be willing to give the green light to a large foreign group to conquer a strategic asset like Tim or would it trigger Golden Power?
As can be seen, the situation is very messy but if the Government, which loves economic sovereignty so much, does not strike a blow, Tim becomes an inextricable puzzle from which only losers without winners would emerge. The moment of truth is near and Tim has been far too battered after his privatization but nobody would forgive completely ruining a strategic asset like his Network.
