The markets are cooling down after a positive week. The positive streak of Wall Street and the European Stock Exchanges is interrupted, the same happened this morning in Asia. Shanghai slows down (-0,8%). Tokyo (-1%) and the Korean Kospi (-1,45%) are doing worse.
There was also an about-face on the currency market, the dollar has lost about 0,5% against the Japanese yen in the last few hours.
Weak Wall Street: Dow Jones -0,41%, S&P 500 -0,27%. The Nasdaq moved little -0.09%.
COCA COLA (-8,4%) GOES ACROSS WALL STREET
The first victim of the slowdown in consumption was Coca Cola, down by 8,4% compared to very cautious estimates for 2019.
Amazon (-1,1%) discounts the decision to cancel the construction of the new New York headquarters in the face of hostility from residents, who fear soaring real estate prices.
Brent oil climbed this morning for the fourth consecutive day to 64,8 dollars a barrel, up 0,5%. According to Merrill Lynch it starts at an average price of $70.
ANOTHER REJECTION FOR MAY, THE STERLING RISES
The euro-sterling cross trades at 0,882, on the highs of the last month. Yesterday evening there was yet another rejection of May in the English Parliament. His motion was scuttled by 303 to 258 due to a revolt by Eurosceptics from the Conservative Party. May said the plan doesn't change, but the mandate to negotiate with the EU doesn't exist at the moment.
The temperature of the global economy has cooled almost suddenly. Zero growth for the German economy, which narrowly avoids falling into a technical recession. Sharp and unexpected setback for American consumption: -1,2% in December, the worst figure in the last ten years. Inflation has died down in China (+1,7% per annum for consumption, in January only +0,1% for wholesale). The world is acknowledging that the economic situation, conditioned by the expectation of the trade war, is much less brilliant than expected.
FURURES BET ON RATES CUT
The stock exchanges are preparing to present the bill: futures, which until a few weeks ago discounted a couple of rate increases, are now expecting a cut. And in the meantime, the world's major managers are keeping themselves liquid, waiting to understand how far the intervention of the central banks will go. In February, according to what emerges from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey, the overweight in cash is at its highest since January 2009. At the same time, exposure to stock exchanges is at its lowest since September 2016. Choices of the Greats.
TRUMP TRY AGAIN WITH THE WALL
Today President Xi will receive Trump's emissaries at the end of the round of tariff negotiations: the possibility of a postponement of the US ultimatum rises, but for now there is no confirmation from the White House. Meanwhile, finally, the new US budget is getting under way and there is no risk of a new administration stoppage, probably the main cause of the slowdown in consumption before Christmas. But the tug of war on the Wall continues: Trump is preparing to invoke the national emergency to invoke the construction. The warning of the speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has already gone out: be careful Donald, she will mean that, in the event of an election, a democratic president will prohibit, on the basis of the same principle, the sale of arms to private individuals.
EVEN THE MARKET SQUARE MISSES
The freeze in consumption in the United States in December also had its effects on the European side of the Atlantic. In the afternoon, almost all the other European stock exchanges reversed course,
Piazza Affari -0,78% also interrupted its upward streak in the afternoon, closing at 19.834 points.
Frankfurt archives a negative session, -0,72% on the day of the publication of the data on the GDP of Germany: in the fourth quarter of 2018 the change was equal to zero, compared to the third quarter, slightly worse than the consensus estimates (+0,1 %) but, in the absence of the minus sign, after -0,2% in the third quarter, the technical recession was avoided.
Paris (-0,23%), Madrid (-0,23%) and Zurich (-0,28%) are also down. London is flat.
THE SPREAD RISES TO 270 POINTS
A break session for the Italian secondary which consolidates the recent recovery, while the German paper regains its appeal as a safe haven asset.
The spread between the Italian 270-year bond and the German equivalent widened slightly to 295 basis points, a handful of cents over the recent lows but still far from the peak of XNUMX reached last Friday.
The BTP weakened to 2,79% (+4 basis points).
CDP TAKEN IT ALL: TIM TODAY, SALINI TOMORROW
In a market devoid of particular ideas for the stock market, the return of the State Master stands out.
First the announcement by Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio that the Treasury, together with the railways, could raise more than 50% of Alitalia, then the confirmation of a role for CDP in the Salini-Astaldi operation. Finally, in the evening, the statement arrived with which the Cassa Depositi e Prestiti announces that it has authorized the purchase of additional Telecom Italia shares (yesterday -1,39% to 0,48 euro), a move "consistent with the institutional mission to support national strategic infrastructures". The CDP could buy up to 10% of Tim with the dual objective of backing up Vivendi's offensive and encouraging an agreement between the former incumbent and Open Fiber, a subsidiary of Enel and the same CDP: the news caused a splash the Tim share by more than 6% in the mid-morning session of Friday 15 February, above 0,51 euro per share.
Yesterday however in Piazza Affari the day was marked by the breakup of Salini Impregilo (+10,5%) after the latter presented an offer to enter the capital of Astaldi (+15%) through a capital increase of 225 million euros. The strengthening of the assets refers to a company without debt, long-term investors should participate in the operation (see CDP). If the creditors give their approval, at the end of the capital increase, Salini would have 65% of Astaldi cleared of debts.
BANKS IN DOWN, BPM BANK UNDER FIRE
Worth noting is the weakness of the banking sector -1,6%, in line with the trend of the European stoxx -1,1%, which is allowing itself a pause for reflection after the rally of recent days.
Banco Bpm -2,8%, which had gained by
more in recent days. Unicredit also down -2,2%. The terms of the one billion euro bond issued yesterday maturing in 2029 have been defined: yield 4,87%, callable after five years. Understanding -1,4%.
The utilities did better: Snam +0,17% and Terna +0,19%, on which Berenberg respectively raised the target price to 4,4 euros from 3,9 and to 5,4 euros from 5. Hold judgment confirmed for both.
JUVENTUS STILL AT THE TOP TOGETHER WITH CAMPARI
The best stock in the main basket was Juventus (+2,8%), after the successful debut on the capital market with the placement of a 175 million euro bond, five-year maturity, 3,5% yield.
Also in evidence is Campari +1,2% after reaching a new historical record of 8,22 euros. The stock, one of the brightest blue chips in the last 12 months with (+32%) benefited from Nestlé's results, which had positive effects on the entire European food and beverage sector.
Negative luxury: Salvatore Ferragamo -3,3% is the worst in the main list. Morningstar has decided to cut the judgment to Sell from Hold, target price unchanged at 15,80 euros. Moncler is also bad (-1%).
INTERPUMP AND GEFRAN, ACCOUNTS IN HEALTH
The market response to the positive results of some pocket multinationals should be noted. Rising accounts for Interpump (+5,9%). Gefran, leader in the design and production of systems and components for the automation and control of industrial processes, closed up 3,2% at 8,19 euros. Fincantieri +1,7%. The French government has come out in favor of selling the controlling stake in Chantiers de l'Atlantique, the old STX France, to the Italian company.
Article updated at 11.15am on Friday 15 February.
