"An offer to be handled with care" is the happy definition with which Fabio Pavan, an analyst at Mediobanca Securities, classifies KKR's "expression of interest" on Telecom Italia. In short, it is too early to say yes or no, but the feeling is that the initiative of the private equity fund has in any case triggered an unstoppable process of change for the former telecommunications incumbent, starting from the management up to the shareholding structure.
As confirmed by theexplosion of volumes exchanged from the start. In three hours of trading, almost 1 billion shares changed hands, or more than 6% of the share capital. The stock took off right from the start, shooting up to around 0,44 euros, with an increase of around 28% on Friday's prices but below the price of 0,505 euros offered by KKR. It is a level lower but not much lower than the proposal of the US private sector, almost a basis for negotiating possible alternatives. For analysts of Intermonte Sim, for example, the 0,505 euro proposed by KKR should be considered a preliminary offer because it could also increase by virtue of the enhancement scenarios of the Network, of Noovle (cloud) and of the assets in Brazil. Meanwhile, the price is judged by some (see Bestinver) as "too low", but others (Ubs) consider it in line with those recorded in the latest delistings in the sector.
Meanwhile the earthquake affects Inwit +4%, the company of the towers controlled together with Vodafone. But also Vivendi, the first shareholder of Telecom Italia, with a 24% stake, gaining almost 3 percentage points in Paris. But will Vincent Bolloré be able to settle for a price much lower than what he paid (1.07 euros per share) for his share? “Vivendi – he comments Equity – today holds a de facto veto power on extraordinary operations. We think she may be tempted to accept the offer by negotiating the best possible exit. But so far it seems unlikely that he will." The financial aspects, however, represent only one tile a complex puzzle which must also be addressed and resolved on a political level. “The government's statements are currently favorable – comments Equita again – In our opinion, however, the reaction of the political parties is the key point to evaluate, as is that of the shareholders”.
In the meantime, it has indeed set in motion the political front. The government, already informed of the offer on Thursday evening, has so far not opposed vetoes or objections, waiting to evaluate the strategic interest of the country on Sparkle or network control. But he limited himself to appreciating the interest of investors in a country's asset. On the party front, it was Matteo Salvini who asked in no uncertain terms for the removal of the current one from Luigi Gubitosi. "Tim, and therefore Italy, needs a partner and an industrial plan that can enhance and strengthen the company, not a financial operation that risks leading to a stew of such an important reality for the country". "Furthermore, given the lackluster results of the last few months, the change at the top desired by many parties seems to be an issue that can no longer be postponed". Heavy broadsides on the eve of Board on Friday in which Gubitosi will have to face the open hostility of shareholder Vivendi while everything is silent for now on the front of Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, also a shareholder of the "competitor" Open Fiber which will probably pronounce itself only after having read the longed-for new business plan on Thursday.
In short, no one has taken the field in defense of the management which has not been entrusted by the board with any specific task in the face of Kkr's "friendly" offer. And this is, for now, the most singular and significant aspect of this quasi-takeover bid.
