The winds of war blowing from Syria, Brexit still stalled, an agreement on tariffs which, according to Donald Trump, will not arrive before the meeting with President Xi in Chile. The geopolitical picture suggests caution. But the markets, almost everywhere close to their highs, are supported by the expectation of new cuts in the cost of money, also justified by the slowdown in retail sales in the US, which fell in September for the first time in seven months. Central banks are already widening the purse strings. While awaiting the ECB's QE, the injection of liquidity by the Fed continues and should cut rates again next week. In short, the script does not change despite the growth of debt almost everywhere, even of dubious quality: both in the USA and in Europe (including Italy) the majority of corporate debt is unrated. For now, the alarm signals are weak, overshadowed by the good news coming from the quarterly front.
Netflix's star shines again, shooting up to +11% after the Stock Exchange when the data on new subscriptions were announced (6,77 million more): in the last three months of the year, new subscribers should rise to 7,6 million, even if the competition from Disney and other competitors who have launched streaming televisions in recent years is starting to make itself felt: in 2020 there should be no growth in subscribers.
HONG KONG ALONE RISES, BUT CATTIE LAM CAN'T TALK
The Asian price lists contrasted this morning. Only the Hong Kong Stock Exchange rose (Hang Seng +0,7%). Carrie Lam's annual speech has been suspended due to protests by some opposition MPs. The Hong Kong chief executive continued by video conference.
All the others are little moved, some slightly up and some slightly down. Tokyo's Nikkei unchanged, Shanghai and Shenzhen CSI 300 +0,1%, Seoul's Kospi -0,1%.
The South Morning Post reports this morning that in Beijing they are waiting to know when the delegation responsible for following up on the final drafting of the contract will arrive, the one to be submitted next month to Trump and Xi Jinping in mid-November.
GOOD BANK OF AMERICA. GM STRIKE ENDS
Despite the good results of Bank of America +1,5% and United Airlines, Wall Street closed slightly lower: Dow Jones -0,08%, S&P 500 -0,20%, Nasdaq -0,3%.
General Motors recovers +1,1%: today the longest strike since the war could end after more than a month.
Brent oil is down 0,7% to $59 a barrel, up 1% last night.
Gold barely moved at 1.488 dollars an ounce.
Euro dollar on the highs of the last month at 1,107.
European stock futures are flat ahead of the start.
BUSINESS PLACE OVER 22.500 POINTS: IT HAS NOT HAPPENED FOR 16 MONTHS
The stalemate in the negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union dampened the enthusiasm of the markets of the Old Continent yesterday, however in positive territory despite the negative macro indications: inflation in the Eurozone has slowed to the lowest level ever reached in the last three years. In September, consumer prices fell by 0,8%, compared to the same period of the previous year. A happy note for the Bel Paese comes from reading the tables of the Monetary Fund: the Fiscal Monitor has revised upwards the estimates on the 2019 deficit seen at 1,5% against 2,1% in the spring editions.
This too helps to explain the performance of Piazza Affari +0,28% to 22.458 points, a new 16-month record despite the slowdown at the end for the European stock exchanges. During the session, the index exceeded the threshold of 22.500 points.
The maneuver for 2020 contains expansionary measures worth about 31 billion, financed for over 16 billion with the increase in the deficit and for about 15 billion through hedging measures, according to what can be read in the budget planning document sent to the European Commission.
However, Frankfurt (+0,32%) and Madrid (+0,33%) did better. Closing in pale red for Paris (-0,09%).
DUP COMPLICATES JOHNSON'S PLANS
London leaves 0,61% on the ground. The euro pound is stable at 0,862, on the highs of the last five months. During the day, some rumors gave the announcement of an agreement on Brexit as imminent, but there was also the denial of Arlene Foster, leader of the DUP, the unionist party of Northern Ireland who guarantees with her votes the majority in Parliament of the British Conservative Party. In a tweet, Foster denied that her party has accepted the latest proposals in the context of the Brexit negotiations.
THE SPREAD BELOW 130 POINTS, THE BUND RISES
The spread was also down sharply to 130 basis points, the lowest since May 2018 and closed at 132 points after falling to 129. The yield on the Italian 0,91-year bond fell to +0,39%, while that of the German 11-year bond rose to -XNUMX% to XNUMX-week highs on optimism linked to the possible Brexit agreement which reduced the demand for safe-haven assets.
BPM-UBI, THE MARKET BELIEVES IT
Banks are once again the queens of Piazza Affari thanks to the propellant of the declining spread, for M&A hypotheses in the sector and, last but not least, the result of the cleaning up of substandard and non-performing loans. Above all, the former Popolari companies ran, at the center of the maneuvers for possible mergers: Banco Bpm rises by 3,1% ahead of Ubi (+2,7%). Lively Unicredit (+1,7%) and Intesa (+1,29). Mediobanca +1,11%: Kepler Cheuvreux confirmed the buy opinion by raising the target price to 11,3 euros from 10,6.
Conversely, the increase in the cost of money was immediately reflected in the utilities: A2A and Terna -0,9%.
FERRARI STRETCHES, JP MORGAN PUSHES TIM SAVINGS
A more relaxed climate in the four-wheeled world, even if there will still be a wait for the agreement on duties. The Eurostoxx Auto rose by 1,6%, Fiat Chrysler by 1,04% to 12,30 euros. Auto registrations in Europe in September grew by 14,4%, Fiat Chrysler group sales increased by 12,8% to 69.467 units, with market share declining slightly to 5,4% from 5,5 .2018% of September 2. Ferrari extends +XNUMX%.
In view of Friday's board meeting dedicated to the appointment of Salvatore Rossi to the presidency, Telecom Italia rises (+0,3%). But the exploit focused on savings bonds: JP Morgan is back to talking about a premium conversion.
FALCK, OVIESSE, D'AMICO: A TRIO OF RAISES
Gedi's march does not stop, rising to 31 cents, above the Engineer's offer. He looks at 37 cents, the level of Flavio Cattaneo's offer.
Falck Renewables, a group that develops, designs, manages and builds plants for the production of renewable energy (slightly less than the Ebitda is generated in Great Britain), rose by 5,5% to 4,13 euros in the final stages. During the day, it pushed up to 4,232. The share has more than doubled in the last 12 months.
D'Amico (+5,5%) and Oviesse (+5,5%) also rebounded, both owned by Giovanni Tamburi's Tip.
