Barring any unexpected developments, there are still two years to go until the general election but it is not certain that the current electoral law, which is mainly majoritarian, will remain as it is. A part of the Democratic Party is rediscovering the charm of proportional law but even at Meloni's house something is moving. Let's be clear: the return to a pure proportional system "has no chance" of happening but "a proportional system with a bonus" or a majoritarian list system certainly has it. This is what Professor Roberto D'Alimonte, full professor at the Faculty of Political Science at Luiss and one of the most experienced Italian political scientists in electoral systems, claims in this interview with FIRSTonline. The proportional system with a bonus of seats for whoever obtains the majority in the elections is precisely the hypothesis that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni seems to be looking at with growing interest and which, as D'Alimonte himself points out, could lead to the direct election of the Prime Minister without touching the Constitution. It is difficult to predict how it will end, but there is no doubt that the electoral law is starting to heat up on both the right and the left. Here is how Professor D'Alimonte sees it.
Professor D'Alimonte, as has already happened in France – although so far with little success – Italian politics is rediscovering its passion for the proportional system in elections: how do you explain this revival?
"To be precise, it is a part of Italian politics, namely the center-left, that has rediscovered the passion for the proportional system. To be even more precise, it is a passion that has never completely disappeared on the left. Within the PD and the other parties of this alignment, the proportional system has always had supporters who are always ready to seize the favorable opportunity to reintroduce it. Some of them think that this time it is the right one, but that is not the case."
There are those who argue that even the sudden rediscovery of proportional representation by Prime Minister Meloni would not only be a way to free herself from the obstacles of the League but a shortcut to the premiership, which today seems to have ended up on a dead-end track: wasn't it you who suggested that, with an appropriate electoral law, the premiership could be introduced without touching the Constitution? How could this happen?
“The proportional system that Giorgia Meloni seems to be moving towards is not actually a true proportional system but a majoritarian list system. Let me explain: all the seats would be assigned with a proportional formula but a bonus in seats would be provided for whoever obtains the majority of votes. The bonus is a powerful majoritarian instrument: whoever wins the bonus governs. It is true that I have long maintained that with an electoral system of this kind, a sort of direct election of the prime minister could be introduced without modifying the constitution. My idea is to assign the bonus to the list or coalition that reaches 50% of the votes plus one in the first round. Whoever succeeds immediately obtains 55% of the seats and elects the prime minister. If no one succeeds, the two lists or coalitions with the most votes in the first round go to a runoff and the winner takes the bonus and the premiership. With a system of this kind, the parties are encouraged to form coalitions before the vote and to indicate a candidate for prime minister and a common program. And voters are faced with a clear choice because they are able to understand that whoever wins governs. The choice is even clearer in the second round if no one wins in the first round and voters are called to vote a second time to choose between only two alternatives, that is, two prime ministerial candidates. This is essentially a direct election even if it is not formally. And there is no need to change the Constitution”.
Is this the system Giorgia Meloni is moving towards?
“Yes and no. As I said, Meloni is aiming for proportional representation with the bonus, but it seems she wants to set the threshold for triggering the bonus at 40%. The reason is that the centre-right parties have never liked the run-off because they claim it benefits the centre-left. They think that with the run-off it would be easier for the PD, M5S and others to find an agreement in the second round that they would have difficulty finding with just one round. They also think that it is easier for the centre-left parties to get their voters to vote in the second round. If it were up to Meloni, and especially Calderoli, the run-off would not exist at all, but it cannot be removed completely because the Constitutional Court has declared an electoral system in which the majority bonus can be assigned without a minimum threshold of votes to be unconstitutional. As is well known, in 2013 in the Chamber, Bersani's coalition obtained 29% of the seats with 54% of the votes. This is the event that triggered the Court's ruling. Hence the need for a minimum threshold."
But why 40% and not 50%?
“Setting it at 40% makes it less likely that a run-off will be called. With a threshold like that, the center-right could aim to win without going to a run-off in 2027. In the 2022 general election, it got 43%. But this is not the most correct solution. With the threshold at 50%, the winner always has a majority of votes and this is a factor of greater legitimacy. This is true both for those who win in the first round and for those who win in the second. In fact, even those who win in the run-off will still have a majority of votes. In this second case, it will be a majority made up of both those who had already voted in the first round and found their favorite party in the second round and those who, not finding in the run-off the party they had voted for in the first round, express a second preference, that is, choose between the two remaining options the one they like the most or dislike the least”.
Could you explain better what the systemic benefits of a 50% threshold would be?
“Modern democratic theory says that a system that gives voters the opportunity to express a second vote and a second preference allows us to identify the option actually preferred by the majority. It is not a given that the one who wins with 40% is truly the preferred option, the one that the theory defines the Condorcet alternative. Forgive me for the technicality. Only the use of second preferences allows this. And then think about the effectiveness of a system in which voters are called to choose between Schlein and Meloni in the runoff, just to give an example. The runoff is a tool for educating democracy in the sense that it makes voters responsible, among other things by making them understand the need to accept compromise choices. And compromise is an essential ingredient of democracy”.
In the proportional law that you imagine, would there also be room for preferences?
"I have never been a supporter of preferences, but I have resigned myself. With such weak parties, it no longer seems appropriate to leave the decision on who should be elected to the party leaders. I don't like preferences, but today I like blocked lists even less, given the parties and leaders we have."
What effects could a proportional electoral law have on the center-right majority? Is it true that new and broader spaces of action would open up for Forza Italia, which in the future could become the deciding factor in Italian politics?
“No. With the majority bonus, Forza Italia will also have to decide before the vote who to ally itself with, just as is happening today with the presence of the single-member constituencies of the Rosatellum. Only with a pure proportional system could Forza Italia become the deciding factor. And this could also apply to other parties. But I am certain that Giorgia Meloni will never accept such an electoral system, unless her party crumbles electorally in the coming months. And I really don’t believe that Forza Italia wants to vote today in parliament together with the centre-left parties to introduce pure proportional representation. If that were to happen, we would be faced with a substantial change in Italian politics”.
Even in the centre-left, as revealed by trial balloon launched by Dario Franceschini, the love for proportional representation seems to be returning even in certain parts of the PD – although not in Elly Schlein – as well as in the Five Star Movement and Italia Viva: what effects would a proportional system have on the opposition?
“A pure proportional system is what almost everyone in the center-left would like, from Franceschini to Fratoianni, Conte, Renzi and Calenda. They would no longer have the problem of agreeing first on a prime ministerial candidate and a common program. Everyone would present themselves alone and the accounts would be done only after the vote. At that point everyone would be free to decide who to ally themselves with to govern, given the opportunity and the desire. With the proportional system with a bonus that Meloni wants, this is not possible.”
In conclusion, what are the chances today of a proportional electoral law being approved by Parliament in this legislature?
"The pure proportional has no chance, the one with a bonus has a good chance. This is why I say that Franceschini is fighting a rearguard battle unless he really thinks he can get Forza Italia on his side. But, as I said, it is a completely unlikely hypothesis. Unless..."
