Over 373 million European citizens are called these days to participate in one of the largest exercises in democracy in the contemporary world. The renewal of the elective and governing bodies of theXNUMX-XNUMX business days However, it occurs in a season of international relations where war and military force have returned to being the primary element of confrontation between global powers, effectively supplanting the pre-eminence of economic and commercial issues. In foreign policy and in the hypothesis of organizing a common defense, the attempts at convergence between European states still remain very distant, thus making the EU's position substantially marginal in the world. Antonio Varsori, professor of History of International Relations at the University of Padua and, among other roles, associate fellow of the Cold War Study Center of the London School of Economics, is one of the leading Italian scholars of the integration European.
Professor Varsori, in a world full of polycrises, how would you define the current European phase?
“Never before has the European Union been experiencing a phase of great difficulty. In the past the Union had mainly faced economic problems, most recently the one brought by the pandemic, now there is a real war on its borders. In addition to Ukraine, there is another war on Europe's doorstep, that of Gaza, with scenarios that are currently unpredictable."
What is the state of health of Europeanism among the founding countries?
“More than Europeanism, I would talk about the state of health of traditional political parties and systems in Europe. It is from there that the pro-European spirit is born or stops. In France we are witnessing a very profound crisis in the Socialist Party, in Germany in the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Italy experienced something similar thirty years ago with the end of the First Republic. We thought it was an entirely Italian anomaly and we were wrong. The internal crisis of the parties produces direct effects on the European leaderships".
Let's simplify by states: what Europe does Emmanuel Macron's France want?
“Are we talking about the idea of the French or that of Macron? Because Macron changes his mind quickly and even radically. One day he wants to strengthen NATO, then he wants to archive it, in Ukraine he wants peace and then threatens a direct war. Domestically, Macron does not have a strong political position, while more generally France is suffering the gradual loss of its projection in the world, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa".
While Germany? Europe's largest economy is experiencing a profound phase of industrial transition.
“Germany faces major challenges in maintaining its industrial leadership. The real issue is that France and Germany have very serious internal issues to deal with. And beyond the rhetoric, this internal weakness influences European politics in a decisive way."
Do anti-European forces worry you more recently than in the past?
“I would say for us, in almost all European countries we are witnessing a retreat of Euro-hostile forces, which are becoming more moderately Euro-sceptic. It is difficult today to find electorally relevant parties and movements in Europe, excluding Alternative für Deutschland (Afd) in Germany, which want the end of the Union or exit from the euro".
What can unite the interests of European states to find the basis for a new integration process?
“On the economy, the document presented in recent weeks by Mario Draghi has received great interest. The major changes that European industry will have to face could be the new common platform for new steps of integration. However, the Europe of 27 will also struggle in the economic field to find agreements that are valid for everyone. For this reason, integration into the Union will have to progress in the form of strengthened cooperation, as happened with the euro. Anyone who does not agree does not participate, the other member states agree."
If current politics is purely leader-oriented, do you see a generation of possible European leaders on the horizon on the launch pad?
“Honestly no, and it is an issue linked to the weakness of France and Germany. The role that the two great European political families, the Popolari and the Socialists will have, therefore remains fundamental. In the second lines I don't see any names on the rise, not even in the CDU/CSU in Germany, while in France it doesn't seem to me that Macron still wants to find his dolphin."
Are you optimistic about Europe's ability to find space for political maneuver in international relations, squeezed as it is between the shifting global military superpowers?
“In the Middle East, Europe matters less than Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and even Qatar. In the bigger picture, we have to wait for the results of the US elections. If Trump were to win, the hypothesis of a weakening of NATO would be real. And in that case would Europe be able to shoulder greater financial and especially military burdens in Ukraine? To what extent would European public opinions be willing to follow this line?”.
Would a further escalation of the war in Ukraine be unsustainable for European balances?
“Probably yes, at least looking at the positions of the national parties. In Italy, the M5S is against the sending of armaments, the League remains very ambiguous on the subject, the Democratic Party has conflicting voices within it, think of Marco Tarquinio's position. In France, Le Pen is very lukewarm on support for Ukraine. In Germany there are many pacifist forces rooted in society."
Is Italian Europeanism in good health?
“According to the public statements of party leaders I would say yes. No one openly calls for leaving the European Union anymore, we limit ourselves to lighter protests. But, as we know, in politics and especially in Italy things can change quickly."
