Volkswagen is trying to restart without Martin Winterkorn, CEO of the giant hurt by the scandal since 2007. The automotive industry tries to get back up while the case lands in the Bundestag. But, globally, the engine of growth has stalled. The latest confirmation of the slowdown in the global economy comes from Japan. This morning, the manufacturing activity index signals a higher-than-expected decline, due to the slowdown in Chinese demand. Bad news for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who in a few hours will announce the objectives to be achieved in the last part of his mandate: it is urgent to relaunch the Abenomics reforms, which are clearly in difficulty.
In this scenario, futures signal a negative start for the European stock exchanges: the Dax should open at 9.585 (-27 points), the London FTSE 100 at 6.017 (-15 points).
MONTE PASCHI WEIGHTS ON THE NOMURA ACCOUNTS (-2,7%). WEAK WALL STREET
Meanwhile, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, after three days of vacation, reopened with a loss of 2%. Nomura's drop was significant (-2,7%) following the agreement with Monte Paschi on the Alexandria derivative which will entail a cost of 287 million dollars for the Japanese broker.
Positive session for Shanghai (+1%) and Shenzhen (+0,1%). President Ji Xingping, after his landing in the US, guaranteed that the Chinese economy is able to maintain a good growth rate for the next few years. Weak Hong Kong (-0,1%).
Weak Wall Street, still under stress from the Fed's decisions: one week after Janet Yellen's announcement (tonight the president will speak at the University of Massachusetts) the S&P index is showing a 3% drop. Another negative note: according to Thomson Reuter, third quarter profits will be 3,9% lower than the previous quarter.
The Dow Jones closed 0,3% down yesterday, S&P down 0,2%. The Nasdaq was almost unchanged (-0,08%). Oil prices also fell sharply, Wti at 44,48 dollars a barrel, Brent at 48,42. The euro appreciated against the dollar to 1,116 from 1,112 at the previous close.
NO QE BIS: DRAGHI HOLDS BACK THE EUROPEAN EXCHANGES
Modest rebound on the European stock exchanges, which in the last hour of trading saw a good part of the day's gains evaporate. In Milan, the FtseMib index closed with a limited increase of +0,1%, after having recorded several times during the session increases of more than +1%. Yesterday the Milan Stock Exchange had lost 3,3%.
Even the other European stock exchanges did not confirm the recovery they promised in the middle of the day. The Paris Stock Exchange closed up 0,3%, Frankfurt +0,5%. The hit of the brakes is due to Mario Draghi who, for once, played the role of fireman of the markets. In a hearing in the Draghi European Parliament he said that the central bank will need time to understand whether the slowdown in emerging countries is temporary or risks becoming lasting, and consequently whether the stimuli in Europe will have to be strengthened.
The gist is that at the moment Draghi does not seem willing to increase the European quantitative easing plan. The solution does not lie in monetary policy, warned the president of the ECB, but in macro choices.
Positive signals are coming from the eurozone for the time being: in September the composite PMI index of the eurozone fell slightly from the levels of August, settling at 53,9 from 54,3, the consensus was expecting 54. However, we are well above the 50-point threshold separating contraction from expansion. The average of the last three months remains at the highs of the last four years, with the new orders component at the highs of the last five months.
SHOWDOWN AT VW. LEAVE WINTERKORN, TOMORROW THE NEW BOSS
The Volkswagen drama is still on the front page at the center of a session with thrilling fluctuations: -10% at the start (quotation below 100 euros), then a rebound up to + 5,4%, recovering a fraction of the 35% lost in the last few two days.
Shortly before the closing came the news of the resignation of CEO Martin Winterkorn who reiterated in a statement that he had never been aware of the scam in the United States. In fact, Winterkorn's resignation came at the end of a tough confrontation with the small group of members of the supervision committee, i.e. the representatives of the main shareholders: the president of the Land of Lower Saxony, Wolfgang Porsche, representative of the shareholder family, and the head of the union. Already on Friday, the supervisory board will examine the proposals for the appointment of the new CEO. The board that expects more top manager resignations in the next few years.
In the meantime, the first downgrades are arriving: JP Morgan has cut the judgment to Neutral from Overweight. In the report, the broker says that the US nitrogen oxides scandal leaves the prospects for long-term value creation unaffected. The target price drops to 179 euros from 253 euros, but remains well above the market price.
Société Générale, on the other hand, has revised downwards the entire European automotive segment and recommends staying away from the entire German list.
In the return of the sector, modest progress was made by BMW (+0,8%) and Mercedes (+0,3%). Still down PSA (-2,8%) and Renault (-1,8%).
FCA DOES BETTER. THE TEAM OF BANKS FOR FERRARI GROWS
It regains its share before and more than the other FiatChryslers (+2,8%). Already on Tuesday, a spokesman for the group in the US had that the company has never used ECUs that falsify emission data and that the group has always worked with the authorities in the sector and will continue to do so to monitor emissions.
News arriving in the meantime on the Ferrari quotation process. Allen & Company, Bnp Paribas, JP Morgan and Mediobanca have joined the group of investment banks that will accompany the IPO of the prancing horse scheduled for the autumn. In the UBS transaction, BofA Merrill Lynch and Banco Santander act as joint bookrunners of the offer.
MPS, A PARTNER ONLY IN 2016. AND THE TITLE FALLS
The dispute with Nomura for the Alexandria derivative is in its final stages. The CEO Fabrizio Viola declares, satisfied, that the Bank is leaving behind the last unwelcome legacy of past management. However, the Monte Paschi share plummets: -8,5%, to 1,482 euros.
The thud occurred after a comment by the new president of the Sienese institute, Massimo Tononi, who declared on the sidelines of a press conference that “a merger takes time. It is reasonable to think of 2016”.
Thus the rumors that gave Mps as the possible prey of a large big name in the sector, especially foreign, fade away, an operation which, thanks to the synergies, would have allowed the group to accelerate the consolidation of the equity ratios.
Carige also fell sharply (-4,5%). Understanding -0,4%, Unicredit -1,1%.
NO ROBIN TAX, ENEL STARTS AGAIN. ROUND FI SAIPEM
Enel rebounds (+1,4%) after Tuesday's heavy drop triggered by rumors about a return of the Robin Hood Tax. The reintroduction of a levy equivalent to (approximately 700 million euros per year of revenue for the Italian state coffers) would have serious effects on corporate profits and, in cascade, on dividend policies. Snam +1%, A2A +0,5%.
Eni also increased (+1,3%). The subsidiary Saipem instead finished down by 3,9% after new rumors about an upcoming capital increase of 3 billion euros.
D'AMICO STRENGTHENS THE FLEET. MONCLER AWARDED BY MEDIOBANCA
In the rest of the list: Finmeccanica +0,7% and StM +1,4%. Moncler (+3,5%) was judged by Mediobanca Securities to be the best share in the luxury sector together with Brunello Cucinelli (-0,1%). Luxottica +1,1% and Yoox -0,5%. Worth noting is the rebound of financial Trevi (+10,42%) after the recent collapses.
D'Amico advances (+0,7%). The group has signed a new contract for the construction and sale of two tankers for an investment of approximately $44 million each. The vessels will be built at the Hyundai Vinashin Shipyard in Vietnam. Delivery is expected during the second and third quarters of 2018.
