The upward thrust is so strong that it has overcome any geopolitical (Ukraine) or financial obstacle (see the slowdown in the yuan and Chinese defaults). Against this backdrop, some positive indications on the US economy (the Philadelphia Fed index) to evaporate the fears triggered by the Federal Reserve statement on Wednesday evening.
The Dow Jones index rose 0,67% (-0,7% the previous day) the S&P 500 gained 0,6% and the Nasdaq 0,27%. The Fed's stress tests of the banking system show that 29 out of 30 banks have sufficient capital to continue lending even if they face an economic shock. But the exam reveals that, in the event of a deep recession (see unemployment at 11%) Bofa, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley would suffer well above average losses.
Another positive element: the Fitch agency confirmed the triple A rating with a negative outlook on US debt. Markets today will be influenced by speeches from as many as four Fed Governors: James Bullard (Saint Louis), Richard Fisher (Dallas), Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis) and Jeremy Stein (Fed staff).
The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed for holidays, the other Asian stock exchanges recovered starting from Hong Kong +0,8%. Great rebound on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, +2,2% thanks to real estate stocks, which have been heavily depressed in recent weeks. But the yuan remains weak, at a 13-month low. Goldman Sachs has cut its GDP growth estimate from 7,5 to 7,3%.
Wall Street's rebound allowed European stock exchanges to recover in the final stages. Paris +0,46% and Frankfurt +0,21% closed up. Down London -0,47% and Madrid -0,13%.
Once again the Milan Stock Exchange was the best, filing close to the highs of the day, a session that started down: The Ftse Mib index gained 0,3% over the psychological threshold of 21 points at 21.094.
Technical maturities contributed to favoring the rebound; The FtseMib derivative due today cleared the key resistance of 21.000 points to close at 21.300 in the close. The impact of the Fed's messages on the bond market and safe-haven assets is modest. The euro drops to 1,377 against the dollar from 1,383, the low of the last two weeks. Gold is on par at $1.330 an ounce after three consecutive declines.
IN APRIL THE BOND LINKED TO DOMESTIC INFLATION
The spread between the BTP and the Bund was stable, closing at 178 basis points for a 3,43-year yield of 5%, while the differential between the Bonos (Spanish auction yesterday for 172 billion) and the Bund ended the session at 3,37 cents, with a rate of the Iberian title at XNUMX%. The market was conditioned by the expectation of the launch of the new Btp Italia which could be announced as early as this morning. The offer is expected to take place in the first week of April. The new issue will take place through two separate placements, the first reserved for retail investors, the second for institutional investors, with more favorable conditions for retail.
The placement will be a little different from other times: it should be in two tranches, one for unlimited retail, at the usual conditions, one for institutional investors at less favorable conditions and with a ceiling. The placement for the general public will not have a maximum offer ceiling. As in previous editions, a loyalty bonus will be guaranteed to those who hold the security until maturity and a commission of 30 cents to the intermediary who collects the investor's order. For the placement reserved for institutional investors, neither the loyalty bonus nor the placement bonus should be envisaged.
BANKING UNION, THERE IS THE AGREEMENT ON THE GUARANTEE FUND
Important agreement to complete the design of the Banking Union. An agreement has been reached on the bank resolution fund which will become fully operational faster than what was established in December by the finance ministers of the Eurozone, ie in eight years instead of the ten originally envisaged. Even national funds will be mutualized more quickly with 40% of the quotas during the first year and a further 20% in the second year, while the remaining 40% will be spread over the last six years.
The Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) will enter into force from next January and will have the task of closing or restructuring the 130 main banks in the euro area that find themselves in difficulty and of managing any crises of around 200 other transnational institutions. The so-called backstop, or the safety net, which was discussed earlier remains outside. but the conferral of a primary role to the ECB in decisions on the closure of a bank was confirmed.
FINMECCANICA, THE BEST BLUE CHIP
It was Finmeccanica's day, the best blue chip with an increase of nearly 3% after the return of the balance sheet to profit and after the government's go-ahead for the project to sell the assets in the transport sector. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has risen by 32%. The group announced that it closed 2013 with a return to net profit, after two years, for a total of 74 million euros compared to the loss of 792 million in 2012. Revenues amounted to 16,033 billion from 16,504 billion. Net debt fell at the end of December to 3,316 billion compared to 3,382 in 2012. The subsidiary Ansaldo Sts, destined to be sold together with Ansaldo Breda, rose by 0,7%. In the industrial sector positive Fiat +1,1% and StM +1,9%.
FOR MEDIOBANCA, UNICREDIT IS A CASH COW
Opposed the bankers. Mediobanca +2,7% and Intesa +1,2% rose. Bfor +2,38%. Exane Bnp Paribas confirmed the Outperform recommendation and reaffirmed the target price at 10 euro. Instead Bpm -1, 8% decreases. Standard & Poor's confirms the negative creditwatch on the group (stock placed under observation for a probable rating cut) decided last November. Banca Popolare di Milano's rating remains BB- for the long term and B for the short term.
The decision is motivated by the expectation of "a reform of governance and a capital increase of 500 million euros". On the possibility that there is unsubscribed shares (unsubscribed shares) for the operation which should start between April and May, CEO Giuseppe Castagna said in recent days that "nothing can be excluded a priori, but I am confident" . Mps also decreased, -1,16%. The president of the Foundation, Antonella Mansi, declared that the institution is still looking for a strategic shareholder to whom to sell part of the stake (now around 10%).
UniCredit +1,5%. Mediobanca analysts raised the target price to 8 euros from the previous 6, confirming the Outperform rating. This is the highest target price among the 40 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. According to the analysts of Piazzetta Cuccia, the group boasts a good balance sheet solidity, the expected growth of profits will also allow Unicredit to raise the dividend. The report reads that “We are convinced that restructuring and strong capital will matter more than asset quality and regulatory risks. The courageous cleanup implemented in the fourth quarter confirms this vision and opens up a new investment case: Unicredit will turn into a "cash cow" after the start of the banking union".
The recent press hypotheses on the possible stock exchange listing of Pioneer Investments, an asset management company of the UniCredit group, are not true. The vice president of Unicredit Candido Fois said it yesterday, on the sidelines of the ABI executive. UnipolSai -0,08% stable. The post-merger group closed 2013 with a consolidated net profit of 694 million euros and a pre-tax result of 1.172 million euros. The group, CEO Carlo Cimbri said during the conference call on the results, is not considering any collaboration with Carige. Banca Unipol will be recapitalised for 100 million.
CREDIT SUISSE HOLDS BACK TELECOM, MEDIA DOWN
Telecom Italia – 0,84% decrease in line with the telecommunications sector in Europe. Credit Suisse underlines the uncertainty regarding strategies in Brazil in a report and maintains its cautious view on the fixed assets market in Italy, concluding that the consensus on a stable 2015 EBITDA is too optimistic. The media sector is weak after the Nielsen data on advertising investments in Italy, the market fell by 2,8% in January. Mediaset-1,5%, L'Espresso-1,3%, Rcs-1%.
UTILITY, ADVANCE HERA ONLY
At the bottom of the Ftse Mib was A2A, down 2,2% to 0,979 euro IN THE WAKE of profit-taking after the good performance of the last period. Sales also on Snam, which lost 1,77% to 4,1 euros. Deutsche Bank cut its rating on the stock from buy to hold and raised its target price by 4,8% to 4,4 euros. Yesterday the company presented the 2014-2017 strategic plan and the main innovations that emerged from the meeting concerned the purchase of 89% of the capital of Tag from Cassa Depositi e Prestiti. On the contrary, Hera+2% was rewarded by the results.
PIAGGIO SWINGS, MORE FLOATING FOR IMPREGILO
Piaggio -4%, in free fall after disappointing data and projections. In the 2014-2017 strategic plan, the group expects to achieve a net profit of approximately 70 million in 2017, a consolidated net turnover of approximately 1,75 billion, while the net financial position is expected, again in 2017, to be approximately 400 million euros . According to one manager, “the targets are positive: ambitious but achievable”.
Salini Impregilo recorded a +1,48%. On the sidelines of the presentation of the 2013 accounts, the CEO Pietro Salini announced that the company aims for a minimum free float of 25% of the capital, specifying that the goal will be achieved through a capital increase, to have a further 10% of the free float , and through a private placement for the remaining 5%. Furthermore, the chief executive said that the recapitalization will be carried out "as soon as possible".
Ei Towers leaps +4,80% after the accounts that analysts judge slightly above expectations, especially in terms of debt. Eyes are on external growth opportunities after the company opted not to distribute a dividend to keep financial flexibility high.
Among the minor stocks, the +20% of TE Wind stands out after a prolonged suspension due to excessive increases. The stock has received a series of positive reviews from some business houses after the publication of the 2013 results.
