Contrasted start this morning for the financial markets, which are weighed down by the shadow of the London attacks: the new crimes of Isis will favor Theresa May ("enough is enough", thundered the prime minister) or the surprising recovery of Labor will continue. backed by Scottish independence activists? Four days after the British vote, the forecast is as uncertain as it is dramatic.
The financial markets are anxiously waiting to understand whether it will be a hard Brexit (the negotiations with Brussels will start on the 19th) or if the ebb of populism, after the victory in France of Emmanuel Macron (probable victory of En Marche! next Sunday) will continue across the Channel. The pound, meanwhile, retreated to 1,2866 against the dollar. The euro moved little, confirming Friday's gains at 1,1281 against the US currency.
Politics and terrorism also characterize the oil market. Brent rose above the $50 barrier this morning (50,57, +1,2%) on the wave of news that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have severed diplomatic relations with Qatar , accused of financing terrorism. Saudi Arabia has blocked land borders with the emirate since tonight, also canceled all flights departing from and arriving from Doha, the staff of the Qatari embassies in these countries have two days to pack their bags
Share prices moved little: in Tokyo +0,1%, the progress of Softbank +2,7% (raised another 7 billion dollars for the technology fund) offset the weakness of energy. The drop in raw materials weighs on Sydney -0,8%. Shanghai -0,5% was also weak despite the progress of the PMI services indices. Unchanged Seoul, down 0,1% Mumbai.
IN VIEW OF THE CONFIRMATION OF THE DRAGHI LINE. BUT WITH NEWS
This is the background at the beginning of a week dominated, on the financial front, by waiting for the decisions of the ECB. The directorate of the European Central Bank will meet in Tallinn on Thursday. The meeting should not record any news on rates or tapering (the reduction of ECB purchases on the market). But the final communiqué should provide for a formulation open to future increases, as requested by Germany and most of the Northern countries.
Today the PMI services data of the main Eurozone countries, including Italy, is expected to be released. On Wednesday, the data of the GDP of the Eurozone in the first quarter will be communicated.
TRUMP AGAINST EVERYONE, DOUBTS ABOUT THE RISE IN THE FED
The political situation overseas is no less agitated. The highlight will be the testimony to Congress by former FBI chief William Comey, fired by President Donald Trump for the Russiagate investigation. Trump alone against everyone, including a large part of the big names in the economy, even on the environmental front. Tomorrow the first UN Ocean Conference dedicated to the measures to be taken to save the seas will open in New York. An opportunity to put the president's policy on trial.
But the performance of Wall Street, back from new records, offers the president the opportunity to relaunch his reforms, which have so far remained on paper. In particular, two important appointments are being announced for the central bank: Randal Quarles should be appointed to the Fed's office that deals with regulation, a first step towards dismantling Dodd-Franck, as the big banks want. Marvin Goodfriend, a conservative considered a free hitter should join the team again (who knows for how long) led by Janet Yellen.
The party of skeptics is growing with respect to the rate increase at the next meeting of 13-14, already taken for granted. The US locomotive slows down, as demonstrated by the drop in new jobs in May (only 138.000 new jobs, down from 174.000 in April and much less than expected, equal to 182.000). Two Fed members, Lael Brainard and James Bullard, think we should wait before starting the hikes.
ALSO APPLE AND AMAZON TOWARDS TOSHIBA CHIPS
On the business front, the acquisition of Yahoo! will be completed this week. From Verizon. Melissa Meyer will thus have to give up her $900.000-a-week salary as CEO. But you will be able to console yourself with the liquidation: 239 million dollars.
Apple and Amazon will participate in Foxconn's offer for the purchase of Toshiba's semiconductors, worth 18 billion dollars, which the Japanese giant will have to sell to make up for its nuclear losses. This was said in an interview with the Nikkei by the owner of Foxconn, the iPhone factory. The Tokyo government has so far vetoed the purchase by the Taiwan giant, given its ties to Beijing.
VENETIAN BANKS AND FINANCIAL COMPANY, RATING ON FRIDAY
Yet another thrilling week for the Italian government, waiting for the rebus on the electoral law and the possible call to the polls to be resolved. Minister Pier Carlo Padoan is aware of having to find a solution in a short time for the banks to avoid a traumatic ending, considered probable in Brussels and Frankfurt. Piazza Affari closed flat on Friday, unable to keep up with the pace of the other European stock exchanges.
In the meantime, the deadline for the presentation of expressions of interest for potential buyers of Alitalia expires today. In reality, today's deadline represents only the first stage of a procedure which should lead to non-binding offers in July and binding ones in October.
Instead, a postponement is looming for Ilva. Today was supposed to be the decisive day for the award of the iron and steel giant, but the unions are asking for more time and the possibility of meeting Prime Minister Gentiloni.
On the parliamentary front, the process of the maneuver in the Senate begins tomorrow. But Padoan went ahead, asking Brussels for a "discount" on the structural measures envisaged by the next budget law. Lastly, Moody's verdict on Italy's debt rating will complete the picture on Friday evening.
COUPON FOR FIVE SMALL. ITALMOBILIARE, THE OPAV FINISHES
Today several companies detach the coupon, but none of the Ftse Mib basket. In particular, the dividend of Cofide (0,014 euro) Csp (0,04) Emak (0,035) Tecnoinvestimenti (0,0875) and Biodue (0,06) was paid. The OPAV (partial voluntary operation) on Italmobiliare shares will end on Friday.
