Mario Draghi's therapy works: in Tokyo this morning the euro drops to 1,3373, confirming last week's European closure. The upward speculation on the currency, which in January yielded the best earnings since April 2011, is now retreating due to fears of an intervention by the ECB. The parallel weakening of the yen against the euro and the dollar is at the origin of the sharp drop in the Tokyo Stock Exchange -1,80%. Most of the Asian price lists, starting from Hong Kong and Shanghai, are closed for the start of the celebrations for the beginning of the Year of the Snake.
Positive ending on Friday for Wall Street's financial week: Dow Jones +0,35%, S&P +0,57 and Nasdaq +0,91%- The Standard & Poor's index closed higher for the sixth consecutive week. The P/E ratio was 14,96 times, below the historical average of 16,11 times. On Friday, the Paris Stock Exchange closed the session up 1,3%, Madrid +2%, London gained 0,5%, Frankfurt +0,8%. On the European Stock Exchanges, the stocks with the greatest increase are those of banks (Stoxx of the sector +2,7%) and of the car industry (+2,2%).
In Milan, the FtseMib index rose by 1,4%, limiting the damage (remember the 4,5% drop on Monday) to a weekly drop of 3,9%. Year-to-date performance drops to a tight +2%. Delicate meeting today in Brussels for finance ministers: the Cyprus dossier and the state of the art of aid to Greece will be at the center of the discussions. The most awaited statistic concerns industrial production in France. A decline of 0,2% is expected.
Spotlights on the "bet" of the Treasury, determined to challenge any electoral turmoil. During the auction scheduled for February 13, the ministry will offer 1-1,5 billion Ccteu 2017, 2,5-3,5 billion Btp 2015 (3 years) and 1-1,75 billion Btp 2026 and 2040 (15 and 30 years). It was since May 2011 that the Treasury did not offer the 30-year bond.
In Bergamo. In his speech at the conference of financial operators, the governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco recalled that "the differential between the BTPs and the Bunds 'remains above the values consistent with the basic conditions of our economy' and observes that only 'the full implementation of a comprehensive reform project will be able to guarantee the necessary gains in competitiveness and favor the recovery of employment'.
The Monti-bonds could also see the light of day during the week, the 3,9 billion issue to service the loan to Monte Paschi. Loan, not bailout underlined Visco, as such computable in regulatory capital and granted by the State at a particularly high and increasing cost over time. In the meantime, investigations continue in Siena. The CEO of Banco de Santander, Emilio Botìn, has also been summoned by the prosecutor as a person informed of the facts, who has for now declined the invitation due to work commitments.
Visco also reiterated the dark gray forecasts for Italy. The economic crisis is deep and the recovery has "high margins of uncertainty". The new recession, he added, “has canceled the partial recovery recorded after 2009. The GDP is about 7 percentage points the pre-crisis one; industrial production in 5 years decreased by a quarter; more than half a million jobs have been lost”. Visco confirms that "the fall in business could stop during the second half of 2013 with a return to modest growth rates and with high margins of uncertainty".
ASIA
Before diving into the New Year festivities, China sent out a comforting signal for the global economy: in January, exports grew by 25% on the same month in 2012, exceeding economists' forecasts which indicated a 17% growth , while imports rose by 28,8%. Thanks to these numbers, Beijing has overtaken the US in commercial traffic, becoming the first nation in the world for import/export volumes. In 2012, US trade reached 3.820 billion dollars against China's 3.870 billion.
AMERICA
Spotlight on Apple +4,7% in Friday's session. Attention is focused on the possible distribution of part of the liquidity on hand, which amounts to 137 billion dollars. The fuse was lit by the legal action of one of the most important shareholders, Greenlight Capital, who accused Apple of pursuing "depressive policies" with its proposal to eliminate the issue of privileged securities. Inviting all shareholders to vote at the meeting against such a possibility. Apple replied that the disputed novelty, Proposal 2 does not abolish privileged titles. “We have announced – specifies the note – a 45 billion return to investors plan over the next three years. By next week, we will have reached the 10 billion mark on that plan." Since the highs of September 21, Apple has lost 33%.
EUROPA
In Brussels, European leaders reached an agreement to apply austerity also to the budgets of the European Union for the period 2014-2020. A maximum expenditure ceiling of 960 billion euros has been set, from an original proposal of 1.047 billion. The result is positive not only for the substance of the agreement, but also for the speed with which it was reached. Now, however, it will be necessary to overcome the perplexities of the European Parliament, called for the first time to express a binding opinion.
INSIDE BUSINESS PLACE
In Milan at the end of the week all the banks soared: Unicredit +3,4%, Intesa +2,3%, Ubi +5,1%, Mediobanca 4%, Pop .Milano +4%, MontePaschi +1,3, 1,2%. Bad day for Telecom Italia, which closed down by 2012% after the preliminary data of the 0,0197 financial statements. The debt has not decreased as analysts expected and the dividend will be practically halved to 0,0307 euros for ordinary shares and 0,043 euros for savings (last year it was 0,054 euros and XNUMX).
Eni rebounded +0,5%, after the drop the day before (-4,6%). Despite the rise in oil prices and the reassurances provided yesterday by management, Saipem fell by 1,5%. In a conference call with analysts, CEO Umberto Vergine said that after checking the order book, all Saipem orders guarantee profitability. The stock was up 5,2% on Thursday. Together with the Italian banks, the Spanish and French ones rose: BBVA +4,4%, Credit Agricole +6,9%, SocGen +2,8%. Insurance companies also rose: Generali +2,1%, Unipol +2,1%. In asset management, Azimut +2,5%, Mediolanum +2,3%. Fiat rose 2,8% after CEO Sergio Marchionne said he expected cash flows to break even in Europe between 2013 and 2014. Pirelli +2,1%, Fiat Industrial +1,9%. Among other industrial stocks, Finmeccanica gained 1,5%, StM +1,8%.
