GREECE AND THE FED SINKING THE MARKETS
After Greece, the Fed. If Black Monday in Piazza Affari was linked to the dramatic news of the clashes in Athens combined with the skepticism of the Eurogroup on the maneuver in the pipeline in Greece, Black Thursday, even more violent (-2,73. 19468% to 1) is the neurotic response of the markets to the words of the governor of the Federal Reserve, who declared: 3) that American growth will remain below 2% this year; 8,8) that unemployment will remain high, not below the level of 3%; 429) that the Greek crisis is threatening the stability of the global financial system. Bernanke confirmed that there will be no third round of quantitative easing, but the coupons of the bonds in the portfolio will be used to purchase new Treasuries. But Bill Gross, president of Pmco (the largest bond fund in the world) says he is convinced that in August, once an agreement is reached on the budget ceiling, the Fed will relaunch the plan to support the economy. Bernanke himself, moreover, minimized the rise in inflation, considering it a temporary phenomenon. The fear remains of a slowdown in the US economy at a time when the Fed has no contrast tools at its disposal in the face of numbers which, on a negative day, are interpreted as the antechamber of the Great Depression: the weekly requests for unemployment in the States, which grew beyond expectations to 414 thousand from the previous 1,6 thousand. Wall Street remains weak with the Dow Jones shedding 1% and the Nasdaq 500%. The S&P1,4 also fell by XNUMX%.
THE DOLLAR RISES AND OIL FALLS
The euro is weak and losing ground both against the dollar and against the Swiss franc, which has risen to a new all-time high. The exchange rate with the US currency is at 1,415 from 1,435 yesterday evening. Oil is down nearly 5,4%, WTI at $90 a barrel. On the European stock exchanges, the stocks with the greatest declines are those most linked to the economic cycle, such as chemicals (Stoxx in the sector -3%), banks (-3,6%), tech (-2%) and construction (- 2%). But in Piazza Affari the day will be remembered above all for target practice on the banking system and sales on Mediaset. But, above all, it was Black Thursday for the Ligresti group: the capital increases of Fonsai and Milano Assicurazioni really started uphill.
DISCOUNT SALES ON INCREASES AND BAD BANKS
Among the main European markets, Milan is confirmed as the most affected stock exchange with Madrid: the Ftse Mib discounts not only the high weight of bank shares punished for fear of contagion from the Greek crisis, but also the sales due to the capital increases of Fondiaria Sai (- 9,89% at €4,01 per share) and Milano Assicurazioni (-28,12% at €0,55). In fact, the pressure on the Ligresti galaxy does not ease: before the opening, the details of the capital increases approved by the board of directors yesterday evening were communicated, which will start next Monday: as expected, the new ordinary shares of Fondiaria Sai will be issued at price of 1,5 euro, with a 39,6% discount on the theoretical price before the detachment of the option right (Theoretical ex right price, or Terp) (savings will be issued at 1 euro) and the option ratio was set at 2 new ordinary or savings shares for each ordinary or savings share held; for Milano Assicurazioni the price of the new ordinary shares is equal to 0,2574 euro and provides for a discount on the Terp of 37, with a ratio of 7 new shares for every 3 held for ordinary and savings. Also down was Unicredit (-4,94%), involved in the reorganization of the insurance group, which will take a stake of 6,6% of the capital of Fondiaria Sai and which confirmed that it has undertaken with the Antitrust to abstain from participating on the board of Fonsai when decisions involving the latter's stake in Mediobanca and Generali are taken. Fondiaria has undertaken with the Antitrust to sell the stake in Generali (which limits the decrease to -1,96%). The CEO of Unicredit then said that the bank expects to be classified in a "low" range among the systemic banks that will be identified by the Basel Committee which met today to decide on the status of banks capable of creating systemic risks which will be asked for additional capital for this. All the banks are bad: Intesa sells 4,35%, Bmps 5,12% and Mediobanca 3,18%. On the insurance front, Cattolica dropped 2,9% after it approved the 2011-2013 business plan in the morning. The targets for 2013 are: a consolidated profit of 140 million (from 70 million in 2010); substantially improved profitability in the Life business with a value of new business of 45 million (from 24 in 2010); in the Non-Life business the combined ratio is seen to improve below 95% from 97,7% in 2010; Roe is expected at 9% from 5% in 2010; Target Solvency II ratio above 130%. The group aims to maintain an "attractive" dividend policy, with a payout of no less than 60%.
POPOLARE DI MILANO REJECTS THE ASSUMPTION OF COMMISSIONER
Two days before Saturday's shareholders' meeting for the capital increase, the tensions on Banca Popolare di Milano have not abated, which has lost 4,85 percent. During the day, the institute rejected the hypothesis of the Financial Times according to which Bankitalia could take control if the impasse between management and unions is not resolved during the shareholders' meeting. In the meantime, the clash over the delegated powers in the assembly continues, which via Nazionale asked to raise from 3 to 5. In recent days, the president of the institute, Massimo Ponzellini, ruled out his resignation in the event of a rejection of the board's proposal for an increase of the proxies from three to five and which sees the unions within the bank against. After the issue of governance was raised today by Assogestioni director Franco Debendetti in an open letter to shareholders published in Il Sole 24 Ore in which he declared that he would resign if the assembly rejects the proposal. But it's the whole popular sector that continues to be a hot topic. Yesterday the deputy general manager of Bankitalia, Anna Tarantola, during a hearing in the Senate, reiterated the importance of a reform of the Popolari, which has assumed a systemic value in our economy. The reform must concern raising the limits on share ownership, encouraging participation in meetings with increases in powers and teleconferences and increasing the weight of institutional investors. On the Stock Exchange Banco Popolare sells 4,53% and Ubi 5,16%, the bank has now reached the price of the capital increase.
PUBLISHING TITLES DRAG DOWN BY MEDIASET
Mediaset lost 6,67% following the revision of the guideline on advertising sales, which is expected to drop slightly in the first half of 2011, albeit better than that of the Italian advertising market which is expected to drop by 4-5% in the six months. A trend that will also continue in the second half of the year with the same difficult economic scenario. The new guideline drags down the entire publishing sector: Mondadori loses 4,87%, Rcs 3,23% and L'Espresso publishing group 4,4 percent.
ONLY CAMPARI AND LUXOTTICA AMONG THE BLUE CHIPS
Campari and Luxottica are the only two blue-chip stocks finishing in positive territory up 0,09% and 0,14% respectively. Fiat sells 1,67% and Eni 1,95%. Stm reports a loss of 5,64%: ST-Ericsson, a joint venture between the Italian-French group and Ericsson, has announced that it will reach break-even starting from the second quarter of 2012, later than previously forecast, and has disclosed a $120 million cost-cutting program.
