From the jewel in the crown that it was, Telecom Italia is now the metaphor of Italy. Too many debts, little capital, little investment, a thousand snares and snares: with such a burden, even a goose that lays golden eggs is quick to turn into sleeping beauty. But the summer is ending, perhaps the "friends" are leaving and the music can change. Three facts can break the spell that imprisons Telecom.
The first is the right of withdrawal which from 28 to 22,4 September applies to the four shareholders of Telco, the box that controls 11% of Telecom and which is made up of restless or distracted shareholders such as Telefonica, Mediobanca, Generali and Intesa Sanpaolo . If they want, they just write a letter and they can free up their shares and sell them to the highest bidder. The cataclysm that would engulf Telecom if all the controlling shareholders sold is evident but, as far as we know, only Mediobanca (which has about XNUMX% of Telco) is ready to sell and leave the leading telephone group. Generali and Intesa are more wait-and-see but so far the real enigma has been Telefonica's inaction, which however seems to be running out. In any case, Telecom becomes more contestable and thanks the Stock Exchange.
The second novelty will arrive on 19 September when Franco Bernabè will try to get out of the corner into which the lack of capital, the divisions and indecisions of the shareholders and the unhappy stock market performance of the stock have driven him (even if the clamorous exploit of the last session is an unequivocal signal), putting new strategic proposals on the table. The bet on the spin off of the network and the search for new partners and new capital with an eye to the consolidation of the telecommunications underway on an international level have been on Bernabè's radar for months, but expect surprises. What is certain is that the manager who comes from the North and who experienced his return to Telecom as a personal challenge will not let go of the helm and is ready to play his battle to the end, despite Mediobanca's thumbs down.
The third big news is the German pax between the Spaniards of Telefonica and the Mexican tycon Carlos Slim, owner of America Movil and shareholder of the Dutch Kpn, which can open up suggestive scenarios for the consolidation of telecommunications and for Telecom Italia itself. In recent days Slim has given the go-ahead to the Spanish on the German subsidiary of Kpn, i.e. E-plus, which in Germany is destined to play a leading role.
Just yesterday Slim also threatened to abandon the takeover bid on Kpn, due to the problems that the Foundation is creating for him: in which case where will his resources end up? And above all: what effect will the German peace between Telefonica and Slim have on Telecom Italia? There are at least two possible scenarios: the first envisages the division of Tim Brasil, which is the real object of desire for both, and the consequent growth of the Spaniards in Telecom Italia, a candidate to take full control of it when all the Italian shareholders leave. But there is also another scenario which foresees the direct landing of Slim in Telecom: not against but together with Telefonica. Two strong partners for Telecom and new rounds of waltz in Spanish for our first Italian telephone group? It is not a far-fetched hypothesis, especially if the unbundling of the network will have a sequel that will secure it.
However, it is also worth not losing sight of the possible effects of the sale of the Vodafone stake in the merger with Verizon: 100 billion euros are a lot, even if any Italian strengthening of Vodafone would presumably look more to Fastweb than to Telecom, to which it continues instead think of an old American acquaintance like At&t.
Come what may, one thing is certain: we already have so few large groups in Italy that the history of Telecom cannot remain ingloriously entangled in quicksand. Having secured the network, sooner or later someone will have to free it. Friday's stock market exploit is a signal. And who knows if his savior does not speak Spanish.
