Since last May 30 the Board of Directors of Telecom Italia approved "the access network societarization project” the comments of the experts on the technical or legal impacts of the operation follow one another, a debate with ideas, sometimes interesting, but which risk making us look away from the moon by distracting us with a finger. The spin-off of the Telecom Italia network, while remaining an operation of great importance, is in reality a symptom and not a cure for the disease, it is the demonstration of what damage the absence of a long-term industrial policy can cause on the one hand and on the other a distrust of the market or rather the preference for a 'relationship capitalism' (Telecom was sold to a shareholder with just 0,6% of the capital).
That the unbundling of the network itself is an operation of a more financial than regulatory nature is now established: the so-called "regulatory dividend” it is difficult to justify a project which, even limited to the corporate reorganization aspects, has an intrinsic complexity, costs and above all the times associated with it, which find it difficult to find an incentive for the return on investment in the easing of regulatory constraints.
But the nature of the spin-off operation is not a relevant fact in itself, but as far as it is able to show and add if it is read in a systemic way in the perspective of these 16 years of Telecom Italia as a private company. After more than three decades since its passage into the hands of private capital, a mandatory step to start a real process of market liberalization, what happened to one of the best companies in our country? When it was privatized in 1997, at the conclusion of the OPV (Public Sale Offer) the shares are placed at 10.902 lire (€5,63). In 1999 it was then sold through an LBO which resulted in a debt such as to become a growing ballast for the company. When in 2001 the Olivetti group handed over the baton to Tronchetti-Benetton, the latter paid €4,175 per share: a huge figure considering that Olivetti listed only €2,25, but almost 16% less than four years earlier. Of this management, the decision to merge TIM and TI with an operation that still maintains in Telecom assets a value of TIM very far from the current market value should be mentioned.
Today the stock is listed on the stock exchange at €0,599, a net loss in value of almost 90% compared to 1997 and reduced by 16 times compared to Telefonica. A market assessment that fully reflects the state of health of the now former Italian jewel: revenues and margins place Telecom in the low-end compared to its counterparts, a loss of ability to generate wealth which is associated with the loss leadership on the international and national market and finally a debt that has almost reached the level "junk”. For years he has been relying on an industrial project that can relaunch the operator, but the conclusion of the long wait has the flavor of surrender. The acquisition of control by Telefonica: a capital operation carried out behind the market and consolidating a loss (net of debt service charges) of 60%, all for 400 million euros in two tranches.
I believe that two important steps must be taken for the economy of this sector: on the one hand, there is a need for a mea culpa by that ruling class (politicians, shareholders, banks, entrepreneurs, manager, Authorities) that they are co-responsible for this situation and, on the other hand, it is necessary to give a change of pace through the ability to plan and implement long-term policies.
A primary responsibility certainly belongs to the regulatory authorities of the sector (national and EU) which are only very recently realizing, unlike the USA, that a capital-intensive sector such as fixed telephony requires few players: to incentivize competition from a plurality of operators to encourage price competition only works in the very short term and today in Italy no one has the dimensions to invest and, as profitability decreases, there will be fewer and fewer incentives to do so. The choices made so far (regulatory but not only) have in fact led to a 'Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs' style market model, discouraging any attempt at consolidation that would lead, also in Italy, to a second major national manager.
From many quarters (the government first of all) there is confidence in an important role of AgCom on these issues and in this perspective the appointment of the new Commissioner of AGCom can be an opportunity to take a step in the right direction and guarantee in the current context the most useful skills. The current Commissioners and the AGCom structure itself are rich in professionalism who are able to give adequate technical support to the Council - both from a technical-engineering and legal point of view, but surely now a figure with experience in first place in the market, certainly third with respect to it but who has experienced its dynamics, who knows, for this reason, how to find a long-term perspective and is above all capable of giving the necessary economic and financial vision. In the United Kingdom, often a point of reference in the field of regulation, they have identified the market's skills, not only technological, as the way to interpret the role of the Regulator in a current key: all the current members of the Ofcom board are personalities from the industry (operators, broadcaster, consulting firm, etc.). Why not try copying?
