For the first time in 29 years, the summit of APEC, the organization that brings together the countries bordering the Pacific, closed without a common final document. The meeting noted that the distances between President Xi Jingping and Washington remain very sensitive. US Vice President Mike Pence said that sanctions against Beijing, suspended for now, could even double compared to the current ceiling of 250 billion dollars. The skirmishes at the summit in New Guinea (tragi-comic notes were not lacking, see the expulsion of Chinese diplomats by the Port Moresby policemen) did not disturb the markets too much, convinced that the peace on trade between the two superpowers is in any case come closer.
The main stock exchanges in Asia moved up: Tokyo +0,5%, Hong Kong 0,4%, Shanghai +0,3%. Slightly down Seoul, Sydney loses 0,6%.
THE ECONOMY IS HOLDING BACK, THE APPEAL OF BONDS IS GROWING
The pound is still fragile, traded at 1,28 against the dollar, while the tug-of-war between the conservatives on Brexit continues. The US currency moved little to 1,139 against the euro, after Friday's drop.
Several Fed members have made statements about the slowdown in inflation and the slowdown in the business cycle. The prospect of a slowdown in the expansive cycle of the economies translates into an increase in purchases of bonds: the yield on the ten-year Treasury Note fell to its lowest level in the last month and a half at 3,07%.
NATURAL GAS TAKES FLIGHT
Brent oil is recovering: +0,7% to 67,3 dollars a barrel. It lost almost 5% last week, making it the sixth consecutive week of declines. Since the end of September, the equivalent value of contracts by speculators has tripled, a sign that the forthcoming OPEC summit in Vienna is not considered an event capable of causing a U-turn in the price of crude oil.
The increase in the price of natural gas should be noted, after last week's volatility surge: the arrival of cold weather coincides with a very low level of stocks. This morning the reference future is trading at 4,64 dollars the reference unit, +8%.
ITALIAN MANEUVER, REJECTION NEARS
In the Eurogroup which will meet today the 19 ministers of the Eurozone, the Italian no is expected to the Franco-German proposal for the budget reform of the Eurozone. Above all, he doesn't like the clause that provides for the exclusion of countries with deficits or excessive debt from investment funds, interpreted as new pressure on the Bel Paese. In this climate, the Commission will in all likelihood confirm the rejection of the maneuver presented by the Conte government on Wednesday, thus laying the foundations for the start of the infringement procedure in January, if in the meantime Parliament does not modify the text sent to Brussels. The margins of negotiation, for now, appear really modest.
Meanwhile, yesterday the French president Emmanuel Macron, harshly contested at home by protest against expensive fuel on the part of the gilets jaunes, he spoke to the German Parliament relaunching the idea of a common army and claiming a leading role for Berlin and Paris in the construction of a "stronger and more autonomous" Union endowed with an autonomous budget.
THE GERMAN SLOWDOWN BEING REVIEWED BY THE ECB
The comparison on the Italian budget, in addition to the developments on the Brexit front, is destined to dominate the financial week of the Old Continent pending the data, to be released next Friday, on the trend of German GDP in the third quarter. The confirmation of a sharp slowdown in the driving force of the European economy, mainly reflected in the decline in car sales, could prompt the ECB to review its monetary policy choices. Mario Draghi, while confirming the closing calendar for Qe, has not ruled out a course correction: the slowdown in growth and low inflation could cause the end of Qe to be postponed. Jens Weidmann's opposition was immediate, but obvious.
The PMI manufacturing indices for the Eurozone will also be released during the week.
TELECOM, THE GUBITOSI ERA HAS STARTED: A SINGLE NETWORK CLOSER
Two appointments at the center of the Italian financial day.
First, the financial market's response to the appointment of Luigi Gubitosi to the top of Telecom Italia. The now former Alitalia commissioner, awarded by the vote of independent directors (but from the Elliott area) is the fourth CEO of the group in four years. Gubitosi will have to lead, as confirmed by his first statements after his appointment, the company towards the split in two and the subsequent creation of a single network that integrates Open Fiber.
But he will have to deal with the opposition of Vivendi, led on the board by the former Amos Genish (2,8 million euros his liquidation) who in an interview with Sole 24, regarding his ouster, said: “ I'm still waiting for an explanation, why they behaved in this way, not aligned with corporate governance best practice. I am still shocked by the president's behavior, which is not gentlemanly".
BTP ITALIA, FOREIGN PEOPLE LIKE THE COUPON
Great anticipation for the start of the placement of the BTP Italia, the government bond indexed to the inflation rate on offer from this morning to the 19th (Thursday will be reserved for institutional investors). The minimum guaranteed annual (real) coupon rate set by the Treasury will favor the good reception of the public: 1,45%, above expectations (between 1,25 and 1,35%), much more up by 0,40% (later adjusted to 0,55% at the time of the award) of the previous offer.
The issue, number 18, will have these characteristics: duration 4 years; six-monthly coupon paid together with inflation for the six-month period (decreasing in deflation, interest is in any case calculated on the nominal capital invested); single repayment at maturity; Loyalty bonus of 4 per thousand gross for those who purchase the issue during the placement phase dedicated to individual savers and keep the security until maturity.
The distribution of the dividend of Mediobanca, Tenaris and Terna is scheduled in Piazza Affari today.
SHORT WEEK IN WALL STREET, AMAZON CHOOSES NEW HEADQUARTERS
Short week for Wall Street, which will be closed on Thanksgiving Thursday and will operate half service on Friday (deals close at 12). The focus is on the shopping weekend. But Amazon, launched towards a new record in response to the numbers of Alibaba's Chinese Single's Day, will reserve another surprise: the location chosen for the group's second headquarters will be officially revealed during the week. In reality, the cities elected to host the 50 jobs expected will be two: Long Island City, near Queens, and Arlington in Virginia. The competition lasted 14 months.
