MOODY'S TILE BEFORE THE BTP AUCTION: THE RATING DOWN IN SERIES B
CHINESE GDP RISES BY ONLY 7,6%. BAGS UP, HOPE FOR NEW STIMULI
Garbage. L'Moody's rating agency decrees the relegation to Serie B of Italian titles. The agency has cut the rating of government bonds, taking it from A3 to Baa2 and maintaining a negative outlook. The cut of the agency, which while promoting the choices of government Monti, is linked to the international political and economic situation which suggests “a further sharp increase in Italy's financing costs”. Among the causes, the "signs of erosion" on the foreign investment front stand out, as well as the risk of contagion from Greece and Spain, with the risks of Athens leaving the euro "which have risen" and the Spanish banking system difficulty.
Lastly, as regards the internal situation, the agency warns investors about the "deterioration of economic prospects in the short term", despite the measures and reforms decided by the Monti government, and about the "political climate which, as of the vote next spring, is the source of an increase in risks”. This also explains the negative outlook.
Moody's ax falls on Italy on the eve of today's BTP auction (5,25 billion), the last appointment of the summer because the Treasury has canceled the August auction, as in 2011 (also thanks to the Imu proceeds). But the impact of Moody's, which will undoubtedly weigh on the level of the spread, already beyond the alarm levels, will have a relative value on the auction for a reason: there are no more foreign buyers.
Yesterday morning, the Italian Treasury placed 7,5 billion euros in 1-year BOTs with yields down to 3,22% from 3,97% a month ago, but the success of the operation does not change the scenario. above all it does not translate into a return of confidence in the Italian governments. The yield on the 10-year BTP rises to 5,88% (+10 basis points). Investor attitudes towards government bonds in the periphery have not changed, while the yield on the 10-year Bund has fallen to 1,25%.
The euro has lost further ground against the dollar and renewed new lows of the last two years at 1,218 from 1,223 at the close.
The spotlights of the markets were concentrated on a figure arriving from the East: Chinese gross domestic product rose by only 7,6% in the second quarter, the lowest figure since 2009. The drop in exports and the boom in the real estate sector weigh heavily. But the economic situation should now change direction: since May there has been an enormous growth in public investments, confirming that Beijing has decided to give domestic demand a boost.
The prediction was shared by the markets: Tokyo climbs 0,14%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbs 0,45%. The feeling is that China can now quickly apply new stimulus to the economy.
Lo specter of recession continues to affect Wall Street. Yesterday the indices of the US stock exchanges closed down: the Dow Jones lost 0,25%, the Standard & Poor's 500 0,50% and the Nasdaq scored -0,75%.
The focus is on the impact that the slowdown in growth is having on company results. Yesterday, in particular, the Indian Infosys -10% cut its sales estimates more than expected, like the Marriott hotel chain -5% which underlined the weakness of some markets. Shoulder bag Supervalu (about -45%): the low-cost supermarket chain has suspended the distribution of dividends and announced the possible sale. Conversely, Procter & Gamble (approximately +4%) benefits from the entry into the capital of the activist hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management.
In Milan the Ftse Mib index it lost 2% to 13.582 points near the lows of the session. London -1%, Frankfurt -0,7%, Paris -0,5%. In Milan, the decline of Telecom Italia -6,5% stands out, after the warning on the accounts for the quarter arrived from Ubs and Exane.
It was also a weight on the index Enel -3,2%: yesterday the Spanish government launched a plan to reduce the tariff deficit which provides for an increase in taxes for consumers and new taxes for electricity companies. It also affects other utilities. Enel Green Power -1,8%, Terna +1,6%.
The banks held in the morning and collapsed in the afternoon. Banco Popolare -3,9%, Popolare Emilia -4,5%, Unicredit -2,4%.
The second round of the battle for Impregile it it will be held in five days after the fight between the contenders has come close. Impregilo's shareholders' meeting concluded with a final vote which sanctions the postponement of the meeting for 5 days, however rejecting the proposal made by shareholder Igli to extend the meeting until next September 3rd. The postponement to September did not pass because there was no absolute majority: of the 316,6 million shares present, 158.088.000 voted in favour, 158.002.000 voted against, while abstentions amounted to 137.161 and those who did not declared vote amounted to 383 thousand. The notary Carlo Marchetti then announced that the works will be updated to next July 17th.
The verdict of the first round is therefore in favor of Pietro Salini: “The postponement is not a market decision – commented Pietro Salini, visibly satisfied – but we cannot oppose it. We need the Carabinieri”. The fact remains that the Roman builder was able to count not only on his 29,9% but also on a further 1,9% of proxies (against the 0,4% collected by Igli) as well as on the favorable vote of the Amber fund, in the meeting with 7,26%. It seems unlikely that Igli will be able to reverse the situation between now and next Tuesday, even if he could aim to convince the abstentions (530 votes) or mobilize the shareholders (about 20%) who were not present.
Consob has authorized the publication of the prospectuses of the capital increases of Fondiaria Sai and Unipol. The two operations will thus start next July 16th. As specified in the note released by Fonsai, it is envisaged that "Unipol irrevocably undertakes towards the company to subscribe in full any category B savings shares that may have remained unopted following the outcome of the stock exchange offer, for a maximum value equal to approximately Euro 182 million".
The constitution of the guarantee consortium for the increases should be signed this morning: compared to the initial team, the withdrawal of Morgann Stanley and a greater commitment from Mediobanca and Unicredit, but two or three Italian banks should take over the consortium as sub-subscribers.
