As long as the boat goes, let it go. The refrain of the old San Remo song illustrates the Fed's decisions well: rates will not touch either today or for the whole of 2020, is the unanimous response of the board of the Central Bank. The economy is growing at a fast pace but there are no signs of overheating. Of course, in the event of a persistent increase in inflation, the Fed could intervene, but the hypothesis is not on the horizon, to the point that the term "uncertainty" has disappeared from the final statement. A nice Christmas present for the stock markets, positive at the start of a crucial day, between the British elections and the US/China negotiations to avoid the increase in tariffs.
THE BAGS RISE, BUT THERE IS THE UNKNOWN DUTIES
Last night, after the announcement, Wall Street got back on track. The S&P500 gained 0,3%, the Nasdaq 0,44%. Dow Jones +0,11%.
Asian stock markets were positive this morning, despite the expiry of the tariff increase (156 billion dollars) on Beijing's imports. Today Donald Trump will meet with his advisers to make a decision. According to Reuters, tariffs will not be cancelled. Tokyo's Nikkei is up 0,3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 1,2%, Seoul's Kospi 1,3%. The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock lists decreased slightly.
The dollar weakens. The euro rises to 1,11405 against the US currency, the highest for five weeks pending the ECB directorate which, general forecast, should not affect rates.
ARAMCO IN FLIGHT TOWARDS 2 TRILLION DOLLARS
Oil goes up. Brent at 64 dollars a barrel, +0,5%, from -1% yesterday. Saudi Aramco, by now the most capitalized security in the world, could today reach 2.000 billion dollars in value: yesterday making its debut on the Riyadh Stock Exchange the stock gained 10%, the maximum deviation allowed by the rules of that market, to 35,2 riyals, corresponding to 1.880 billion dollars in capitalization. If the trend were the same this morning, the company would reach the goal set by Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, set four years ago: 2.000 billion dollars.
Gold finished up 0,7% at $1.474 on a third-day gain. The demand for the yellow metal is increasing on the markets to protect the positive result achieved during a record year.
THE EU BETS ON THE “GREEN FUTURE”
It will not be the ECB, on the occasion of the first directory led by Christine Lagarde, to spoil the party. Uncertainty is about it if anything the outcome of the British elections. The first figure will arrive at 22pm (23pm in Italy). Only then will it be known whether Boris Johnson has obtained a sufficient margin to initiate Brexit or whether he will have to come to terms with Labor who are calling for an encore referendum. European leaders, meeting in Brussels, will examine the situation in real time.
Meanwhile, the European stock markets experienced a positive session, awaiting the decisions of the central banks. In this context, the plan to make the European Union the first "climate-neutral" continent by 2050 has found ample space. President Von der Leyen has pledged to present the first "European climate law" by March 2020 with the initial goal of reducing carbon emissions by at least 50% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. A game will immediately open up to be played on several fronts: taxation, environmental rules, confrontation with others continents.
BUSINESS PLACE RISES ABOVE 23 THOUSAND
Piazza Affari rises by 0,14% and consolidates over 23 thousand, at 23.155 points.
The other markets were positive: Frankfurt +0,57%, Paris +0,22%,
Best of all Madrid (+0,77%), where the star of Inditex shines (+5,24%), or an increase in capitalization of over 4,5 billion following the increase in profits of the Zara parent company : 2,7 billion in the first months (+12%).
Flat London (+0,03%). The eve of the vote brought some uncertainty. YouGov, the company that accurately predicted the outcome of the latest polls two years ago with an elaborate survey that estimates the results in individual constituencies, has more than halved the majority that Johnson could win, bringing it to 28 seats, from 68 indicated two weeks ago . Possible scenarios still range from the triumph of Johnson's Conservatives to a suspension of Parliament without the control of any party.
SPREAD AT 154 POINTS, 1,21 YEARS AT XNUMX%
Stable session on the Italian secondary market, with the spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration at 154 basis points and the yield on the Italian 1,21-year bond at XNUMX%.
On the primary, annual bots were assigned with yields down to -0,191%, down by 6 cents compared to last month's auction.
LVMH ORPHAN SAFILO SHOULDER STRAP
Corporate crises enter Piazza Affari. Safilo (-25,47%) sinks on the day of the presentation of the new industrial plan to 2024. The company controlled by the Dutch fund Hal has announced that it will close the Martignacco plant (700 redundancies) following the drastic drop in production caused by the loss of licensed with Lvmh. CFO Gerd Graehsler explained that the company will not distribute dividends for the next five years as he believes he can create more value by investing in the restructuring and revitalization of the company than by allocating resources to shareholders.
Moncler is also down in Made in Italy (-1,9%): Kering has for now given up on the purchase. UBS cut its recommendation from Buy to Neutral, raising its target price from €40,0 to €42,0.
NEXI AT THE TOP, BOFA PROMOTES TIM
The best blue chip yesterday was Nexi (+3%). Enel stands out among the big names (+1,3%): Moody's assigned the Baa2 rating to the Spanish subsidiary Endesa, with a positive outlook.
Good among industrialists Buzzi (+2%), confirmed in Kepler's selected list, and Pirelli (+1,3%). Outside the main list, Sogefi shines (+8,15%), in the prospect of delisting.
Tim +0,76%: Bank of America-Merrill Lynch raised its target price to 0,84 euros, confirming the buy recommendation.
Juventus down (-1,7%) on the eve of the conclusion of the capital increase.
Among the banks, Unicredit (+0,4%) received the promotion of Banca Akros. Banco Bpm (-0,2%) will not be able to fall below the Common Equity Tier 1 threshold of 9,505%: the minimum requirement has been set by the supervision of the ECB.
