Even with the taxation of extra profits, in progress at Palazzo Chigi, le Italian banks they will enjoy useful vouchers. The rating agency says so Moody's in an analysis on five major institutions, Intesa, Unicredit, Bpm, Bper and Mps which represent over half of the Italian banking system
"The to evaluate of Italian banks will remain high during the second half of 2023” and the tax will not “prevent any of the five banks from improving their net profit on an annual basis for the whole of 2023” say Moodys analysts, correcting their aim compared to the August indications when instead they saw a negative impact on the banks' ratings .
A month ago the US agency reported that the new tax on extra profits would be "credit negative" for the sector, because "it will significantly reduce their net income", with a weight of "approximately 15% of the 2022 net profit of the system".
Moody's: Net interest income will offset decline in lending
But in light of new data, Moody's now reports that i revenues
interests net, already supported by higher lending rates and low deposit costs, they will balance the impact of reducing the Loans, provisions for losses and higher financing costs.
The agency recalls that the five banks have reviewed al I raise the forecasts on full-year earnings entering the second half, with UniCredit e Intesa San Paolo which increased them by over 20% to over 7,25 billion euros and well over 7 billion respectively.
If anything, we may see a slowdown in the loan request e mortgages in the coming months, given the level of rates imposed by the ECB. It could therefore be precisely this weakness in demand, if it were to persist, that could lead to a reduction in profits next year at the system level. “We expect loan demand to remain weak in the second half of the year” continues Moody's and there is a “likelihood that banks will record a decline in earnings in 2024 if the decline in lending volumes and bank fee income continues ”.
Last week S&P had calculated that the tax could lead to a contraction in dividends of up to 15% in 2023. With a lower impact for the largest banks (6% Intesa; 7% Unicredit) and a greater weight on Bpm (15%) and Bper ( 14%).
Giorgetti does not give up, despite the negative opinion of the ECB
Meanwhile the Italian government he does not give up and continues his program for the creation of the new taxation. The Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti again yesterday from the stage of Pontida he reiterated his determination by underlining that sometimes it is necessary to "make complicated decisions that will annoy some, we did it with the superbonus" and now "with a tax with the banks' extra profits". After all, already in Cernobbio He said that the law "can certainly be improved, what I don't accept is that it is said that it is an unjust tax, it is a fair tax. I can assure you that in the end, in its definitive version, everyone will be able to appreciate it."
The ECB also considered it an inappropriate tax and, following a request from the same ministry for an opinion, raised doubts there are three main findings: the consequences for credit, investor confidence and the possible repercussions on smaller banks.
Speaking of smaller banks, Mauro Pastore, general director of Bcc Iccrea, raised his hand today, interviewed by Repubblica who underlines how the smaller banks could have more negative consequences than the large ones. “The parent company Iccrea acts as an intermediary between the ECB and the BCCs, often very small, which receive central funding from it” he says. “This implies double taxation for the individual mutual banks.”
The review of the initial draft: waiting for changes
If it is true that the law, as Giorgetti says, must be changed, any changes are now awaited. Precisely to calm the discontent of the majority and the bankers, but also the fears of the Bank of Italy and the ECB, in recent days it was the hypothesis emerged of a tax credit for banks starting from 2024. According to some sources, banks could be made to pay the tax on extra profits for 2023, all or in part, guaranteeing the government a revenue of 2-3 billion euros, and then return everything, or almost everything, in the following years via tax credit, lasting 5 or ten years, which credit institutions can use to offset normal taxes to be paid.
