Il world trade grows, but slow, with a stagnation that has persisted for years. According to the latest report by Ref Searches the reasons are clear: demand for goods is weak, influenced by global monetary policies, while the automotive sector is dealing with the difficult ecological transition. In parallel, the deglobalization advances: countries adopt protectionist measures that are holding back the expansion of global markets. The Trump's trade war, with its tariffs, is reshaping international trade and putting a strain on global relations. As a result, markets are adapting to a IT world; increasingly local e protectionist, with concrete repercussions on the global economy
Deglobalization: Why the World is Going Local Again
La stagnation it's just one side of the "deglobalization“For over 15 years, countries have adopted protectionist policies that have shortened the production chains, making them more local and less global, often to avoid tariffs. At the same time, companies are increasingly focusing onvertical integration of production processes, that is, producing internally to reduce costs arising from distant supplies.
The numbers speak for themselves: the world trade grows less than GDP. In the 90s it grew by 7%, today only 2,5% per year, with goods recording the smallest increase, under 1,5%. The causes? The financial crisis of 2008, the increase in labor costs in China and, of course, the awareness that globalization, at times, has more disadvantages than advantages.
Despite this slowdown, trade in services, including and the business online, continue to grow. However, unlike goods, these trades are less interconnected between countries.
Post-Covid and Energy: Autarky as a New Economic Paradigm
In recent years, the pandemic , crisis energy European They have intensified the push towards autarky, highlighting the risks of being too dependent on distant countries.
The pandemic has shown the fragility of supply chains global, paralyzing sectors such as microchip and forcing companies to hold more expensive inventories in a high-rate environment. energy dependence on Russia has pushed Europe to invest heavily in renewables to reduce supply risks and cut costs. In addition, the crisis has sparked debate on health risks and the impact of job relocation, fueling discontent in advanced countries.
Tariffs and Protectionism: Do They Work or Not?
Trade tariffs, the heart of the Trumpnomics, are one of the main tools used to protect domestic markets from foreign competition. But these measures are not always a panacea. While on the one hand they seem to favor local producers, on the other they can trigger real war Business, with other countries reacting with tariffs, penalising local exporters. Furthermore, tariffs are not impenetrable. There is a “trade triangulation”, which allows products to circumvent the duties passing through third countries.
Furthermore, the introduction of tariffs can make appreciate the national currency, reducing the effectiveness of policies and creating a vicious circle that complicates local competitiveness. Finally, tariffs can increase international political tensions, hindering cooperation on complex global issues, such as the fight against climate change.
China on the Rise: How It Overcame Tariffs with Innovation and Green Strategies
Despite the tariffs imposed during the first Trump presidency, the China she managed to keep her trade surplus and increase its global market share. Thanks to the devaluation of the yuan, Beijing has continued to make its products competitive, and to keep production costs lower than other countries. But it has not stopped there: China has diversified its production, moving from low value-added sectors towards advanced technologies such as auto electrical, celle photovoltaic and Lithium-ion batteries, taking advantage of the opportunities linked to the growing demand for green technologies.
US Deficit and Exports: Why the Trade Surplus is Growing
Despite increasing gas imports, theEurope he saw growing up his trade surplus with Usa, fueled by more expansionary fiscal policies that increased the US deficit to 8% of GDP in 2024. Europe has faced a contraction in purchasing power due to the energy crisis, but rising US consumption has boosted American imports, while in Europe they have grown less.
The Eurozone suffered from energy difficulties, but has recovered. Countries with surpluses such as China, Mexico e Canada are facing protectionist threats from the US. For Italy, theexport to the USA has grown, with metalworking and agri-food in evidence, but Trump's protectionist policies could put these sectors at risk.
US-Europe Trade Relations: Tariffs, Agreements and Future Prospects
I business relations between United States ed Europe, according to researchers at Ref Ricerche, could see a further widening of the European trade surplus, thanks to two main factors: diverging fiscal policies between the two sides of the Atlantic and the strengthening of the dollar. Despite a considerable bilateral surplus, European exports could be affected by Trump's tariffs, but the impact will depend on their size and the further appreciation of the dollar.
A solution it could probably be a new trade agreement similar to Trump's first term, when Europe agreed to increase imports of liquefied natural gas and soybeans in exchange for tariff elimination. Today, LNG imports are expected to increase, but there could be discussions on other sectors, such as agricultural goods and, perhaps, armaments, due to criticism of Europe over its military spending.
Trumpnomics 2025: What to Expect From Trade Wars and Inflation
The Trump administration's first moves have raised quite a few doubts about How will things go in 2025?. At the moment, however, expectations seem to be moving towards lighter measures than promised, focusing on “symbolic actions” to keep electoral promises, such as the expulsion of immigrants.
Some aspects of Trumpnomics, however, are inevitable. For weeks now, policies have been influencing theinflation and on rates of interest, strengthening the dollar. If trade wars are not resolved, they could escalate, damaging the global economy and investment.
Lo worst case scenario? Taxi of interest taller e darker forecasts, with effects also on markets equity. In any case, even if trade wars remain mostly symbolic, there will be no shortage of concrete interventions, accelerating that trend of closing markets that has been going on for years now.
