“This time I really enjoyed it”, On the desk of Giovanni Tamburi, number one of Tip, stands out a copy of "Prices & Values", his latest effort ("you can say it loud - he comments - because it is the result of hours taken from sleep") dedicated to "Enterprise Value in the digital age". Or, more prosaically, "to all the nonsense on the markets spread with both hands by analysts, research offices and various gurus". Volume controversial but of absolute relevance: "First the Brexit, then the Trump effect, finally the alleged Apocalypse that would have unleashed after the Italian referendum". And instead…
“Instead, the real economy has always prevailed over the virtual interpretation of reality. The reality is that things are not going badly, indeed the economic situation in Europe and beyond is better than expected. But optimism is not fashionable”. Thus begins the conversation with Tamburi, who for years has continued undeterred, regardless of political crises and pressure on the spread, to enhance the "pearls" of the real economy, ie companies with a good exposure to exports. With a clear corporate mission and, more importantly, with strong governance, ensured by ownership and/or management dedicated to growth.
Topics that are out of fashion. Or not?
”I enjoyed compiling a collection of analysts and forecasts that I have followed with great seriousness over the years. Let's take the trend of gold: an analyst, without any fear of ridicule, predicted on the eve of the American vote that, in the event of Hillary Clinton's success, there would be a 7% rise, more than double if she prevailed Donald Trump. It's a pity that after the elections gold fell”.
A prediction can be wrong.
“True, but I'm beginning to suspect that there is some sort of market for strong predictions. Take Marc Faber who has been predicting impending catastrophes for a decade or so. Nothing like this happened, but an hour-long conference makes him 25 euros”.
It is a merciless analysis of the financial industry. What has changed in these years?
“In reality, not much has changed, except the speed of actions and reactions, which has paradoxical, often absurd consequences. Want another example? In the book I publish the graph of the market reactions to the speech given by Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole on August 26th. Significant impacts on the currency emerge, of the opposite sign mostly quickly absorbed: a ridiculous pantomime that has lasted for years”.
How does the Italian malaise fit into this context?
“Why do we have to talk about malaise? The media talk about it little or not at all, but in Italy not only are more cars being sold, but the same is true for commercial vehicles or other indicators that indicate an improvement in the economy. Unfortunately, and I don't understand why, the pessimism fueled by social media rather than by the printed press which unfortunately weighs less and less makes the news. I hope that sooner or later there will be room for more reasoned information”.
But social unease was not invented by the media.
“Very true, but this should push us to do, not to scream. Italy has excellent companies which, as they grow, can help solve problems. Want a little example? When Andrea Guerra arrived at Eataly, he realized that the formula didn't work in some realities, such as Florence or Bari. Why, they explained to him, should a Bariese have a coffee with us when he pays half in front of evading establishments taxes and contributions?”.
Yeah, why?
“It took patient and rational work. But today Bari works”.
I wanted to ask you for a recipe to change Italy, we arrived at the coffee. What can we ask of the new government?
“I hope that whoever arrives will continue the excellent work of Renzi who, among other things, had the merit of relying on Calenda. Our country needs politicians who know how to encourage the growth of our businesses, who have nothing to envy from others, as demonstrated by the exploits of plastics or pharmaceuticals or automation. Even employment, the healthy one, is picking up again”.
Then there is the chock of banks: how much of the industrial boom of a certain Italy is the result of easy credit which has generated 360 billion non-performing loans?
“The figure, net, has now halved and I have the impression that a good part of the problems has a remote origin. At the time of the Banco di Roma, for example. It takes time to untie certain knots, such as those of the Popolari which have often replicated the scheme of the old Banco Ambrosiano: give me the money and I'll take care of it.
How to deal with the Monte Paschi problem?
“With an industrial logic. I'm not a banking expert, but I think there is ample room to transform bonds into equity, according to the scheme adopted by Warren Buffett at the time for the big US banks. The cost of money will also remain low in the coming years, after all”.
Therefore?
“We could launch one or more large convertible issues, also involving the Gacs. The approval of the former Bot People would, I think, be very high. And we would finally stop enriching JP Morgan or other banks”.
Isn't that too ambitious an undertaking for Italy?
“Nope, we could do it in the face of the owls. The important thing is to regain confidence”.
