After 50 years of Baathist regime, the al-Assad family has lost control of Syria. The rapid Rebel advance, which in 10 days took crucial cities such as Aleppo and Hama, led to the collapse of the regime. On the night between 7 and 8 December, the rebels have entered even in the capital, Damasco, effectively marking the end of Bashar al-Assad's government, in power since 2000 after inheriting it from his father Hafez.
Assad is on the run and it seems left Syria with a flight to an unknown destination.
Which future now for Syria? The al-Assad regime has always received support from Russia and Iran, with Syria representing a strategic position for both, especially for Russia, which has the only outlet to the Mediterranean through the port of Tartus, and for Iran, which uses the country as a corridor for its regional alliances. With its fall, the country risks becoming the center of interests of other powers, upsetting the Middle East balances and risking being dismembered. Furthermore, it could favor the resurgence of extremist groups, such as the Islamic State, increasing the threat to regional and international security. The already serious Humanitarian crisis risks getting worse, with millions of displaced people and the collapse of essential services.
Rebels conquer Damascus, it's the end of Assad's regime
During the night, the Islamic-led rebels, including the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), they declared that having conquered Damascus and announced the “flight” of Bashar al-Assad. After decades of rule by the regime, which began with his father Hafez al-Assad, the rebels have made a triumphal march, conquering key cities such as Homs and Aleppo in just two weeks. In Damascus, residents took to the streets to celebrate the end of the Baath era and the beginning of a “new era” for Syria.
With the entry of the rebels into the capital, the Syrian institutions have rapidly passed under opposition control. The Prime Minister, Mohammed Ghazi Jalali, said he was still in Damascus and ready to cooperate with the new leadership, although public institutions remained under the temporary supervision of the former prime minister until the complete transfer of power. Despite the outstretched hand to the rebels, the prime minister was nevertheless arrested. “No one should approach public institutions” in Damascus, which will remain for now under the “supervision” of the outgoing prime minister, “until they officially change hands,” he announced Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, leader of HTS.
The rebel leader said that Damascus has been “liberated” and that the goal now is start a reconstruction process, involving all Syrian political forces. Previously, al-Jolani himself had also announced the victory in Homs: “We are experiencing the final moments of the liberation of the city of Homs, it is a historic event that will distinguish truth from lies,” al-Jolani said in a video posted on Telegram.
After taking control of the capital, the rebels occupied the city centre and the main public television station, and Notorious Sednaya Prison Liberated, known for the serious abuses committed during the regime, allowing the release of thousands of prisoners.
Assad on the run, mystery surrounding his fate
Il Bashar al-Assad's fate remains uncertain. The president seems to be fled from Damascus, with some voices indicating it direction Tehran or Moscow, while others hypothesize that it is located in a unknown location. Bloomberg reports that Assad may be willing to negotiate a safe exile o maintain control over the few areas remained under his power. He is currently believed to be in Tehran, where he is reportedly trying to mediate with the United States, via the United Arab Emirates, offering to sever ties with groups such as Hezbollah in exchange for Western intervention to stop the fighting. Other sources, however, suggest he may be in Moscow, where he was last seen on December 1, accompanying his wife, First Lady Asma, who is suffering from cancer, to the graduation ceremony of her eldest son Hafez.
Israeli TV reports that the plane on which Bashar al-Assad allegedly left “from Damascus he suddenly disappeared from the radar after a few minutes of flight, after a 180-degree turn towards the coast." Israeli media reported, citing Reuters which speaks of “mystery”. “There are high probability that he died in the plane crash“, Syrian sources say.
The last flight from Damascus, a Illyushin76 with Syrian Air flight number 9218, took off before the rebels captured the capital, but its transponder was turned off over the city of Homs. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali said he had no information about its whereabouts and said he had last spoken to Assad on Saturday evening.
The hope of a free Syria
With the rebels entering the capital and the definitive defeat of the regime, hopes for a solution are growing among citizens. Syria renewed. Despite the difficulties of a reconstruction that promises to be arduous, opposition groups have launched an appeal to all Syrians, including those displaced abroad, to return to contribute to the Reconstruction of “Free Syria”. A country that, hopefully, can finally turn the page after decades of dictatorship and civil war.
US: “Priority is to prevent the resurgence of ISIS”
With the fall of Assad, the geopolitical implications for Syria intensify. The White House has stated that the United States will closely monitor developments in the country. The national security adviser, Jake sullivan, reiterated that the priority for the United States is prevent a new ISIS resurgence. In a speech released in recent days, Sullivan stressed the importance of prevent a humanitarian catastrophe and not to allow the fighting in Syria to create fertile ground for the return of the jihadist group. The United States government, therefore, announced that it is ready to act to prevent the situation from worsening.
Le rebel forces are therefore also engaged on this front, trying to maintain control in the liberated areas and ensuring that Syrian territory is not again contaminated by extremist forces. This precarious balance will be crucial for the stability of the country, despite the long period of conflict that left deep scars.
In parallel with developments on the ground, Western diplomacies are already working to launch a political transition processThe priority of the Western powers is to to initiate a dialogue in Geneva that will facilitate the post-Assad transition, with the presence of all Syrian political forces, even if some exponents, such as the HTS group, are not well regarded by all chancelleries.
The radical Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), despite being designated a “terrorist group” by many Western powers, could play an important role in the negotiations, given that it has a strong influence on the ground. However, it is likely that Western chancelleries will seek to negotiate without compromising their international prestige, avoiding directly legitimizing the most radical factions.
A defeat for Putin too
As Bashar al-Assad's Alawite Syria crumbles under rebel onslaught, Iran and Russia, historical allies of the regime, they seem helpless. Despite the call for a “political dialogue” between the Syrian government and the opposition, the powers that have supported Assad in the past are now weakened from internal conflicts and declining economies, hardly able to save their main ally.
In Doha, the Foreign Ministers of Russia, Iran and Türkiye, together with the UN envoy Geir Pedersen, met to discuss the situation. During the meeting, they reiterated the defense of Syria's "sovereignty and territorial integrity" and the need to rapidly stabilize the country. Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, said that it is "inadmissible" that a terrorist group takes control of Syria, while Iranian Araghchi stressed the importance of negotiations between the parties.
Moscow's role was crucial in 2015, when Vladimir Putin rescued Assad with air strikes and military supplies, strengthening the Russian base in TartusThe loss of this base, together with the fall of Assad, would be a serious damage for Russia, which would lose access to the Mediterranean. Furthermore, the rise of HTS could change the religious structure of Syria, favoring Saudi Arabia, a traditional adversary of Iran in the region, already a supporter of Donald Trump during his first term.
Tajani: We are following events in Syria with “concerned attention”
The Italian Foreign Minister has a meeting of the Crisis Unit was called and said that the Farnesina is following the events in Syria with “concerned attention”.
The United Arab Emirates has called on Syrians to “work together” and “avoid chaos”.
Last update at 11,51pm
