The possibility of a direct confrontation in Syria between the US and Russia is increasingly concrete. Trump lets it be known that "American missiles, beautiful and intelligent, are ready". Russia replies: "We will shoot them all down". The markets, as per the textbook, take note of this by reducing their risk appetite. The signals coming from the Fed minutes contribute to keeping the tension high: inflation, which is heading towards an annual increase of 2,4% is considered the main threat.
ZUCKERBERG: “I WAS SPIED TOO”
And so stock lists weaken. Forgive the blows to the US markets: Dow Jones -0,9%, S&P500 -0,55%. The Nasdaq closes down -0,36%.
Mark Zuckerberg's testimony continued in Congress. The tycoon claimed that Cambridge Analityca also snatched his personal data. Facebook gains 0,8%.
ASIAN EXCHANGES SLOW DOWN, GOLD RISES
Similar script this morning in Asia. Tokyo (-0,1%) and Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0,3%) slow down. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists -0,7%.
The dollar recovers against the main Asian counterparts, in particular against the Indian rupee: the exchange rate rises to its highest level since November 2017 at 65,4. The yuan's loss helped Mumbai Stock Exchange, up 0,1%. After the sharp declines of recent days, the quotations of the ruble have stabilized at around 63. The Turkish lira, another currency at the heart of the crisis, has come under pressure. Gold takes off, at a two-year high (1.365 dollars an ounce). The euro traded at 30 this morning. The yen was also strong at 1,12370.
FLY THE ENERGY ETF, SALE SAIPEM
The most sensitive data concerns oil. Brent surpassed the $73 barrier, American WTI rose to $67,45 a barrel, the highest price since December 2014 after Saudi Arabia announced it had intercepted a missile in flight towards Ryiad.
The stocks of the oil sector are in turmoil both on Wall Street (+1,2% the sector index) and on Piazza Affari. Saipem rose by 2,08%, supported by the agreement in Uganda for the development of the Hoima Refinery. The plan calls for the company to carry out the estimation work for the construction of the refinery, the first step to then continue with the complete construction of the plant. Tenaris (+1,73%) and Eni (+0,62%) were also positive.
The SPDR Energy ETF, which tracks the performance of the major American energy majors, is at its highest level in the last two and a half months.
Among the raw materials, aluminum recovered, gaining 13% in the space of a week. Rusal, the Russian aluminum giant hit by US sanctions, rebounded this morning (+5%), after losing 60% of its value in three days.
EUROPE ALSO IN RED: MILAN -07%
The winds of war are also blowing on European price lists, the closest to the Middle East chessboard. In Milan, the Ftse Mib index closed down by 0,69% at 23.012 points (trading volume at 2,9 billion euro, up on yesterday's 2,76), consolidating the increases of the last period. Fractional losses for the other Stock Exchanges: Frankfurt -0,83%, Paris -0,56%, Madrid -0,28% and London -0,13%.
BTPs ON THE RISE, MEDIUM-LONG AUCTION TODAY
The direct effects of the trade tariffs announced by the US and China on the eurozone economy are limited but these measures could hit investor confidence. This was stated by the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, adding that "in the end, the key problem is retaliation".
Positive closing for the Italian bond market, even as the escalation of threats between the US and Russia after the suspected chemical attack in Syria offers support to the Bund, with investors attracted by safe-haven assets.
The entire eurozone sovereign bond sector rallied on Wednesday's session. The large round of medium-long term auctions on the agenda today also contained the gains of BTPs: the Treasury is making available up to 9,25 billion euros in BTPs at 3, 7, 20 and 30 years, including the new benchmarks April 2021.
The latter on the gray market of Mts at the end of the session offers a yield in the 0,07% area, while last month the old October 2020 benchmark was assigned in the auction at zero interest.
The yield differential between Italy and Germany on the ten-year stretch rose to 129 basis points from 128 at the previous close. The reference ten-year Italian rate travels in the 1,78% area.
The Treasury placed 6 billion euros in 12-month Treasuries, at a yield of 0,399% from -0,403% in mid-March, the highest since mid-November 2017.
The Portuguese Treasury syndicated a new 15 billion euro 3-year 'long' government bond, collecting orders for over 15, at a yield of 2,325%, corresponding to a premium of 102 basis points above the midswap rate.
CDP AT 4,2% IN TELECOM ITALIA
Telecom Italia closed down by 2,89%, but lost more than 3% in the session. Yesterday was the last day to buy shares valid for voting in the meeting on April 24 in which the first act of the challenge between Vivendi and Elliott will take place. Trading volumes are still high. 423 million pieces changed hands, equal to 2,7% of the capital
Cassa Depositi e Prestiti holds 4,262% of Telecom Italia as direct ownership. This is what can be deduced from the updates on the relevant shareholdings of Consob relating to 10 April. Again in Telecom Italia, as of April 9, BlackRock held 4,977% of the Italian group.
Today, Tim's lawyers filed an urgent appeal with the Court of Milan against the decision of the Board of Statutory Auditors to include Elliott's requests on the agenda for the April 24 shareholders' meeting.
THE PIRS HAVE GATHERED HALF A MILLION NEW CUSTOMERS
Research by Assogestioni measured the PIR effect on Piazza Affari. The individual savings plans were subscribed in 2017 by 500.000 people who had never invested in mutual funds before, proving to be an excellent opportunity to expand the customer base of asset management companies.
THE INTESA-POSTE ITALIANE AXIS AT THE START
The data arrived on the day ofcommercial agreement, which lasted three years, between Poste Italiane (-0,2%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (-0,8%): the former will sell the financial products of the latter, including loans and policies. The alliance provides for forms of collaboration also in the payment of postal bills. The news is negative for Anima, down by 4,5%, 10% owned and an important commercial partner of Poste Italiane. For the asset management company, the assets under management arriving from the Post Office, according to an estimate, should be around 6% of the total. In 2017, the collection received from Poste was around 1,7 billion euros.
ELKANN: “WE WILL ALWAYS BE THANKFUL TO MARCHIONNE”
FCA -0,94%. On the eve of tomorrow's meetings of the Agnelli group, the chairman John Philip Elkann pays this tribute to Sergio Marchionne in the letter to the shareholders of Exor.” The goals for 2018 set by FCA in 2014 seemed unattainable then, but as we get closer they seem more and more possible". “If the targets are met – continues the letter – Sergio Marchionne will be able to leave to his successor a company with 2019 billion in cash, 4 billion dollars in revenues and 125 billion dollars in adjusted net profits in 5 to his successor. An unimaginable transformation of Fiat for which he became manager in 2004 and of Chrysler which interacted with Fiat in 2014 giving life to FCA: a success for which we would always be grateful to him".
Ferrari lost 0,87% to 97,7 euros. Mediobanca Securities has restarted its coverage of Ferrari by lowering the rating from outperform to neutral, with the target price rising to 111 euros from 109 euros. According to experts, growth in 2018 should already be priced in, with the stock appearing to be correctly priced.
EQUITA BRAKES LUXOTTICA, MONCLER STILL AT THE TOP
Luxottica closed down 1,73% after Equita cut its rating to 'hold' and eliminated the stock's weighting in its core portfolio.
On the other hand, Moncler (+2%) and Ferragamo (+1,6%) rose in luxury. Prysmian down (-1,9%): Exane reduced its target price from 26,9 euros to 25 euros, confirming the neutral recommendation. Experts lowered earnings-per-share estimates by 8% for 2018 and 10% for 2019.
CHAMPIONS EFFECT ON ROME
Rome flies (+23%) after the masterpiece in the Champions League which made it possible to reach the semifinals.
Erg -6%. Unicredit has sold all its stake, equal to 6 million shares, or 4% of the capital, at a price of 18,6 euros, 7,2% under the closing.
