After more 50 years of al-Assad family rule, the Baathist regime has succumbed to the rapid advance of the Syrian rebels. In just 10 days, the country's major cities fell, culminating in the capture of Damascus on the night between December 7th and 8th. Bashar al-Assad, on the run, He found asylum in Moscow together with his family, ending an era that has marked the history of Syria. Russia confirmed granting asylum on humanitarian grounds.
The fall of Assad opens a uncertain scenario for Syria, involving numerous international actors in a complicated geopolitical game. Iran, Russia, Türkiye, Israel and the United States are facing off on increasingly unstable ground, while the risk of fragmentation increases of the country and the return of extremist groups, such as the Islamic State.
Russia and Iran, the two great “losers” of the situation, Syria plays astrategic importance: Moscow depends on the port of Tartus for access to the Mediterranean, while Tehran uses the country as a crucial hub for its regional alliances. The fall of the regime, however, risks turning Syria into a battlefield between other powers, worsening the already precarious stability of the Middle East. In the meantime, a clear winner: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which strengthens its position in the region.
Syria: The Big Winner is Erdogan
Recep Tayyip Erdogan emerges as the big winner in the Syrian crisis, thanks to a clever and opportunistic political strategy. From only NATO leader to support Syrian opposition, reaped the benefits of his support by jumping on the bandwagon of former al-Qaeda member al Jolani and backing the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive, which quickly gained ground as far as Damascus.
Its position in the territory has thus strengthened at the expense of Iran and Russia: the Assad regime, the linchpin of the anti-Israel and anti-Western alliance with Hezbollah, Houthis and Hamas, is now finished, while Erdogan has consolidated his influence. This would allow him to push for the repatriation of 4 million Syrian refugees, a move that would strengthen domestic consensus, and to negotiate with the United States on the future of north-eastern Syria controlled by the Kurds. It will not be easy for Erdogan, however: the stability of Syria will depend on the management of the HTS rebels and on preventing the return of ISIS or a new civil war. The delicate Kurdish question could open a further front of tension, with the possibility of peaceful integration or new conflicts. Erdogan has now reversed the balance of power with Vladimir Putin, while remembering that “At this moment, among the leaders in the world there are only two people left: one is me, the other is Vladimir Putin”.
Moscow and Tehran the losers
Iran and Russia are the big losers of the game. For Tehran, the fall of the Assad regime marks a serious strategic loss: the Syria was a linchpin of the Axis of Resistance, through which weapons and support for Hezbollah and other Shiite militias passed. The speed of Damascus' collapse left Iran surprised and weakened, without an effective response.
Moscow, while having tried to minimize the impact of the fall of his ally, he is in difficulty. Despite efforts to save Assad since 2015, the Kremlin has massive intervention avoided to preserve resources, especially considering the commitment in Ukraine. He now risks losing his fundamental access to the Mediterranean and to see scaled down its geopolitical ambitions, also towards Africa. The ppossible loss of the air base of Chmejmim and Port of Tartus would constitute a hard blow for Vladimir Putin. Moscow will then try to limit the damage, aiming to maintain a military presence in Syria and reassert its influence in the region.
US and Israel concerned about the birth of an Islamic State
- United States is worried for a possible power vacuum in Syria that could favor the return of ISISPresident Joe Biden has said the U.S. will not allow the group to re-establish itself in the country, and in response, U.S. forces have conducted air strikes against over 75 ISIS-linked targets. The Secretary of State Antony blinken stressed the importance of a “peaceful transition of power” in Syria, with support for an inclusive political process.
Israel, which borders directly with Syria to the northeast, is particularly worried for the possibility that one Islamic State Forms at Its GatesThe current situation poses a grave fear for Tel Aviv, which has intensified its military presence in the Golan Heights. A power vacuum in Damascus or, worse, the formation of an Islamic state, are scenarios that Israel hoped to avoid.
And so in the chaos that reigns in Damascus the Israeli forces have crossed the demilitarized zone on the border with Syria for the first time since 1973, With the purpose of consolidate strategic positions, such as Mount Hermon, to monitor the movements of the rebels and Hezbollah. Israeli tanks are thus deployed en masse on the Golan Heights, with the Syrian city of Quneitra visible on the horizon, now under rebel control.
Syria: Five Possible Scenarios for the Future
According to an analysis by the Turkish daily newspaper (Sabah, taken from Defense Report, Syria's future could follow one of these five scenarios:
- Syrian Democratic Republic: A government supported by an alliance of opposition parties with various ideologies. This scenario would need the joint support of Turkey, the United States, Russia and European countries to ensure stability.
- Islamic Republic of Syria: The creation of a government controlled by extremist groups such as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. This scenario could create a dangerous environment for both Israel and the United States, given the ideological tensions with these actors.
- Anti-Shiite State Under Israeli Control: A possible new state with the support of Israel to counter Iranian influence and cut Hezbollah's logistical ties. This hypothesis would however risk increasing tensions in the region.
- Federal Republic of Syria: A country fragmented into small autonomous states, with an unstable balance similar to that of the Balkans. This scenario would reflect a US-sponsored solution.
- Division and Civil War: The worst-case scenario: a new wave of internal conflict that could lead to the definitive collapse of the Syrian state, further worsening the humanitarian crisis.
The world is watching with concern, knowing that the next moves could determine the future of the region. Today, at 15:21 p.m. local time (XNUMX:XNUMX p.m. in Italy), a extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council on Syria.
