Last October 27th the SVIMEZ presented the 2024 Report entitled Competitiveness and cohesion: the time of policies. Considering that the first Report was produced in 1974, it must be said that we must first of all recognize that this Association precious continuity that his work has guaranteed for so long, managing to keep alive the attention for a historical problem that continues to characterize the development of the country.
The Report, as usual, consists of ain-depth and detailed analysis on economic and social situation of the South, through which some important positive aspects of the path taken in recent years by the Southern economy are highlighted compared to that of the rest of the country.
Southern Italy: Recent GDP Trends
In the economy of the South, in fact, important developments have been achieved change processes, but these, the Report argues, in order to be made structural and provide a foundation for long-term development, must be accompanied by adequate competitiveness and cohesion policies. Is it possible for this to happen? This is the question that is implicitly behind the entire drafting of the Report and which receives an initial answer from the recent trend of the GDP. The latter in the South during 2023 increased by 1,3% and only by 0,5% in the Centre-North (0,7% in Italy and 0,4% in EU27). In 2024 the gap between the South and the Centre-North decreased by only 0,2 points (0,9 against 0,7). In 2025, a return to the prevalence of growth rate of the Center-North and to theretreat of the South: 1% against 0,7% (Italy 0,9%, EU27 1,5%). The cuts to the national budget, the progressive exhaustion of community funding, the uncertainty that currently characterizes the next economic policy of the EU, without considering the effect of the ongoing conflicts and global trade tensions do not at all guarantee the continuation of the positive trends that have been highlighted in recent years for the purposes of a reduction of the North/South dualism. The latter, as seen from the forecasts, seems to be able to resume starting next year. It is a matter of understanding if and how it could be prevented.
Current problems in the South
During the presentation of the Report, the whole issue was addressed current southern problem and a broad discussion took place, with relevant testimonies such as, for example, that of the Mayor of Naples and new president of ANCI Gaetano Manfredi.
In summary, on the positive side, it has emerged that in the South over the last two years there have been the conditions of the sector have significantly improved of building construction; the sector of it has expanded; it has strengthened competitiveness of the agri-food supply chain; in some areas important and modern realities have established themselves regarding digital, energy, electronics. And, again, the Report states that to date theAutomotive It is the South, in the sense that car production in the South is worth 8% of manufacturing added value compared to 4% in the Center/North.
He put himself in evidence that the occupation from 2019 to 2023 it increased by 3,5% in the South (with a strong growth in construction employment: +11,1%), while in the Centre/North it stopped at 1,5%.
In addition to this, it must be recognized to the municipalities of having played a very important and responsible role in the management of the funds that concerned the realization of the projects entrusted to them. And many, including in particular Manfredi and Giannola, have recalled the possibility (still distant) that the South could be brought to play the role of European hub in the Mediterranean.
Alongside the positive aspects, the presentation of the Report and the discussion that followed focused extensively on thehighlighting delays and social problems that characterize current southern society, and for which a worsening is expected. Here too, reference can only be made to the most significant aspects.
The demographic crisis
Sul demographic plan from now to 25 years, 82% of the national population loss (3.6 million) will be concentrated in the southern regions. Furthermore, in 2050, the seniority index will worsen of the southern population: there will be 3 elderly people over 65 for every young person under 15. The South would lose 813 thousand young people under 15, 4,1 million fewer will be in the population between 15 and 64, 1,3 million more people over 65. Already today the South has become the area at greatest risk of dejuvenation, with the population of 5-14 years that in just one decade is expected to decrease by 421.000 units.
La there has been an employment recovery but it has made the Southern labor market even older and less feminine.
On the level of health facilities suffice it to say that the places per 100.000 inhabitants in the South range from 98 in Sicily to 226 in Calabria, while in the rest of the country they range from 439 in Valle d'Aosta to 1.061 in Piedmont.
Sul university study plan Southern Italy is affected by a significant and growing intellectual migration. 2 out of 10 southern students enroll in a three-year degree program in the center-north, almost 4 out of 10 in a master's degree program in a northern university. Overall, the number of graduates from southern universities has decreased. In essence, a significant part of the human capital on which the development of the southern area should count continues to move to the North or abroad.
New economic and social policies are essential
To conclude. It seems that the title of this latest report: Competitiveness and cohesion: the time of policies should be understood, more than as a reference to an ongoing process, as auspice to design thelaunch of European-oriented economic and social policies which have as their objective, on the one hand, the achievement of the economic competitiveness of the productive system of the South and, on the other, the social cohesion of the Southern population. Even if it is the same Report that highlights both the real mutilations to which the latter will continue to be subjected, and the climate of uncertainty of the policies and availability of common resources that threaten the EU.
In conclusion, it is important to keep in mind the meaning and harsh tone with which the president of Svimez Adriano Giannola he concluded his final speech: “To say that the South is a problem in the process of being solved is wishful thinking.”
