SPARKS BETWEEN MERKEL AND LAGARDE, FIRST WOMEN OF THE CRISIS
THE SPREAD DOWN, SHIELD AGAINST THE PITCHFORKS FOR MONTI
The "gossip" of the Financial Times remember the behind the scenes of the Sanremo festivals of the good years. But it gives an idea of the tensions of the moment: the International Monetary Fund is putting strong pressure on the ECB to give up the coupons on Greek debt securities purchased during 2010. This is a counter-value of 40 billion euros at 7% already calculated in the balance sheets of the Bank of Frankfurt. But, argue the inspectors of Madame LagardeHow can German bankers lent to the ECB refuse the discount in Athens while the EU does not compromise on the "voluntary" discount for individuals? At issue, obviously, are not the 2,8 billion to save, although not a small thing, but the principle.
The Eurogroup, moreover, shows no yielding: theagreement between Greece and private creditors remains too "soft", ie in these conditions there is no guarantee that Athens will be able to repay the 130 billion that Brussels could pay to the Greek government, once the hurdle of repaying the 14,5 billion bonds next March has been overcome.
Silence, Frau Angela speaks. The privilege of inaugurating the meeting in Davos, the annual showcase of the planet's powerful, this year falls to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. But, given the times, it is not known whether it is an honor or a call to stand for Germany, champion of Europe but also number one defendant for its stubborn refusal to reflate the euro area. The duel with Christine Lagarde, director general of the IMF, will also continue in Davos, who is urging Europe to increase its firepower in defense of Spain and Italy. But in Davos these days Russians, Chinese, Brazilians, Indians and South Africans will parade. For Italy, the presence of Ignazio Visco, governor of Bank of Italy, and of Minister Corrado Passera is expected. A survey of entrepreneurs shows that only 59% of Italian industrialists expect an increase in turnover for 2012. Among German entrepreneurs, the percentage rises to 91%.
The tug of war, easy to predict, will last at least until Monday evening, when, barring surprises, the final draft of the Fiscal Compact. In the meantime, all that remains is to hope: yesterday morning, when the conclusion of the negotiations with Athens seemed imminent, the gap between the BTP and the Bund dropped below 400 points for the first time since last December 7th. Italy also gained positions against Spain (spread 55 basis points, against 202 basis points at the end of 2011) and France (spread 287 basis points), other countries targeted by rating agencies. Then came the painful notes: the yield of the Btp rose to 6,12% (it had fallen below 6%), the spread to 413. The trend, however, seems positive. A comfort for Prime Minister Monti today engaged with the governor of Sicily Raffaele Lombardo to seek a solution to the death of the pitchfork protest.
APPLE SUPERSTAR, 13 BILLION IN PROFITS IN THREE MONTHS
On Wall Street the European setback it has relegated to the background the good results of the Bigs: Mc Donald's, Du Pont and Johnson & Johnson, all above forecasts. Nothing compared to the impression of Apple's accounts, communicated at the end of the session: during the last quarter of 2011, Steve Jobs' creature recorded the sale of 37 million, or 400 pieces a day or, if you prefer, more than 17 thousand per hour. The turnover was 46,3 billion dollars which goes to replenish a cash box which, in terms of cash, now exceeds 100 billion dollars (more than what Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has at his disposal). Profits, compared to the previous quarter, more than doubled: 13,1 billion against 6. The stock immediately shot up by 10% before settling down at a still significant +7,3%. In the meantime, however, the Greek clouds stopped the rally of the S&P 500 -0,10% after five days of gains, the Dow Jones -0,26%, the Nasdaq +0,09%. The Tokyo session closes with an increase: the Nikkei 225 index marks an increase of 1,11%. Futures on the City and on the US Stock Exchange are up. Prices are expected to recover at the start of the session.
With a dash at the end, the Milan Stock Exchange it also managed to close today's session higher, unlike the other European lists. While the other European stock exchanges finished down. The failure to reach an agreement between Greece and its creditors weighed on the markets, as did the cut in growth estimates by the International Monetary Fund. The Fund estimates global growth of 3,3% (against the previous +3,9%). The Eurozone is in full recession: -0,5% in 2012 against the previous +1%.
The FtseMib index of Piazza Affari rose by 0,1%, the Paris Stock Exchange fell by 0,4%, London -0,5%, Frankfurt -0,2%.
UNICREDIT TOWARDS SOLD OUT BOOK 25 BILLION COVERED
The recovery is largely related to the bank rally, previously conditioned by the downgrade of Socgen and Crédit Agricole by S&P. MontePaschi closed up 3,6%, Unicredit +2,5%, Banco Popolare +1,4%, Mediobanca +0,9%. Negative Intesa -0,2% and Ubi -1,9%. The big maneuvers continue in Piazza Cordusio. Unicredit filed the prospectus for the issue of covered bonds for 25 billion with the Luxembourg Stock Exchange in order to increase the "funding". Federico Ghizzoni didn't even wait for the conclusion of the 7,5 billion capital increase to draw on the newfound supply of liquidity from the Euromarket. Finally, today, the bank should announce the repurchase of hybrid bonds distributed among customers (including retail ones) for 5,1 billion below the nominal value but at better prices than market quotations. Meanwhile, other news on entries and exits from the capital are filtering: in the shareholding structure, in addition to Diego Della Valle and Leonardo Del Vecchio, De Agostini appears thanks to the conversion of cashes. The Capital Research fund doubles from 2,7 to 5,4%, second only to Al Aabar, the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund which has already risen to 6%.
Most of all, technology and telephones have suffered.
A Milano StM fell -5,4% after the disappointing results of the fourth quarter of 2011 and the weak indications on revenues for the current quarter (a drop between 4% and 10% is expected).
Telecom Italia fell sharply in Piazza Affari, which lost 3,5% following rumors, which have not been denied, about a possible reduction in the dividend. The company has not denied. The unexpected cut in the dividend for 2010 is linked to the need to contain the debt (27,5 billion) within limits that do not compromise the rating of the telephone company. However, problems are looming for the financing of the Telco exhibition, the control box of TI. Eni remained unchanged, Enel +1,5% and Snam +3,9% recovered.
Fiat closed higher by 1,7% following rumors about possible new incentives for low-polluting cars. Fly, for the same reason Landi Renzo + 6,8%.
Prysmian -3,1% and Fiat Industrial -1,8% slide down. Finmeccanica positive +0,4%.
