Progressive treble in Latin America. In the last 12 months alone, the South American continent has turned red in three out of three elections: in Chile a year ago the 36-year-old socialist won Gabriel boric; then Colombia with the first leftist president in its history, Gustavo Petro, who narrowly defeated the conservative Alvaro Uribe, who came to power for the first time in 2002. Just as he narrowly won in Brazil Squid (also elected for the first time 20 years ago), scoring his personal treble: no Brazilian president had ever obtained a third term.
The former union leader did it with 50,9%, the lowest percentage ever, even if he got over 60 million votes, also a record. And with her exploit, greeted not by chance with enthusiasm throughout South America, the so-called URSAL (acronym, in Portuguese, of União das Repúblicas Socialistas da América Latina) came clean: after a long period of mainly right-wing governments in the area, today including Mexico and Venezuela there are as many as 8 countries governed by the left, that is, all those in mainland South America with the exception of Ecuador, Paraguay and Uruguay, and including Peru, where the trade unionist has governed since July 2021 Pedro Castillo.
THE CHALLENGE OF INTERNATIONAL POSITIONING, AMONG THE USA, RUSSIA AND CHINA
In this context, what are the economic situation and international positioning of Latin America? Starting from the Brazil of the newly re-elected Lula, who will take office on 1 January 2023, the markets and the international community seem in favor of the turnaround: although the 77-year-old leader of the Workers' Party has expressed ambiguous assessments of the war in Ukraine (it is no coincidence that he received congratulations from both Zelensky and Putin), his return to the saddle of the leading economy in the area has received convinced applause from the Western world, starting with Biden and Macron.
Brazil can't wait to get back to counting in the international context, but Lula - in addition to the ambiguity towards Russia - will also have to deal with a your country's growing dependence on China, which for years, amid general indifference, has been getting its hands on South America and in particular on Brazil, which in 2021 was the country in the world that benefited from the most investments from Beijing: almost 6 billion dollars to acquire companies or finance projects in all sectors, from oil to fintech, from infrastructure to automobiles. Not to mention soy, the primary raw material exported from Brazil, especially to Asia.
THE MARKETS APPROVE LULA AND NOW THERE IS COP 27 ON CLIMATE
The markets are currently approving: the Brazilian currency, the real, is strengthening against the dollar and the euro, while the Ibovespa index of São Paulo, after the collapse following the vote, it is gradually recovering, even if it is still far from the highs of May 2021. There is an air of change at all levels, as if a part of the country (actually not so majority) could wait to catch up with the rest of the world, after years of gaffes and slips. The first test bench is in the next few days COP 27 conference on the climate of Sharm el Sheikh, where Brazil will want to play a leading role especially on the theme of the Amazon, whose deforestation under Bolsonaro has advanced to unacceptable levels. First positive sign: Germany, which had suspended the Fundo Amazonia aid program, has reinstated it.
However, for Lula it will not be easy to get the country back on its feet, recently returned to the UN Hunger Map (estimated 33 million people at risk of malnutrition): Bolsonaro, underlines Folha de San Paolo, is "politically alive and socially normalized" and the new government it will be hard to find the majority in the Federal Congress, to the point that Lula will be mathematically forced to forge alliances with the Centrão, a container of the center which to date is still allied with the outgoing president.
THE BALLAST OF INFLATION: ARGENTINA IN BLACK CRISIS
And the other countries? The hot topic in South America is always that ofinflation. Brazil estimates 2022% for 9,4, a figure in line with Petro's Colombia (which has a record unemployment rate: 11%), while Boric's Chile sees it worse, which after receiving the rejection of the The new Constitution foresees higher prices of 11,6% this year and again of 9% in 2023, when instead Brazil and Colombia will fall below 5%. Leaving aside Venezuela which is experiencing a situation of its own, the rear player in the continent remains theArgentina, also led since 2019 by a left-wing government: the president Alberto Fernandez he was among the first to congratulate comrade Lula, but his country is going through the worst crisis since the times of the corralito, twenty years ago.
Inflation this year in Argentina is estimated at 72% and in 2023 it is expected to even worsen to 76%. Growth is also disappointing: +6,5%, but up from 10,5% in 2021. And Brazil is no better, which according to the IMF will grow less than Italy and the Eurozone this year, below 3% . Even the Mexico, which with Andrés Manoel López Obrador (theoretically of the left but often accused of conservative policies) was a candidate to become the new locomotive of Latin America, in 2022 will see the GDP rise by only 2,1%, to slow down further in 2023 to 1,2%. There Latin American left it is awaited by an historic challenge: today it governs in countries that together account for 93% of the area's GDP.
