Le European banks they exceed the stress test 2025 with results reassuring. The ones that stand out the most are the Italian institutes, which have one of the lowest patrimonial impacts in the entire Union. This is what emerges from the test results conducted by the European Banking Authority (Not), in collaboration with the European Central Bank (ECB), out of 64 banks of the EU, equal to 75% of total banking assets.
EU banks resilient even in an extreme scenario
In the scenario adverse – which simulates a severe global recession, an escalation of geopolitical tensions (particularly in the Middle East) and a rush to protectionism with increased tariffs – European banks demonstrate good capital stability, recording aggregate losses of 547 billion euros. Average CET1 ratio would drop from 15,8% to 12,1%by 2027 in the EBA sample, and at 12% in the ECB sample (compared to 10,4% in the 2023 test). This is a significant contraction, but much smaller than that recorded in the 2023 test.
The EBA emphasizes that, even in the face of severe shocks, European banks would retain a strong capacity to support the economy. However, it reiterates the importance of maintaining adequate capital buffers for the stability of the system.
Italy among the best: banks remain solid even under stress
In the comparison between countries, Italy stands out positively. The average absorption of CET1 capital in the adverse scenario is equal to 150 basis points, One of the lowest values in Europe. They only do better:
- Portugal: impact less than 50 basis points
- Sweden: less than 100 basis points
- Hungary, Greece, Poland, Norway: just above 100 basis points
The impact is much more marked in France e Germany (up to -400 basis points) and in Spain(about -200 basis points).
The best Italian banks: Iccrea, MPS, Intesa, and Unicredit at the top
Here are the main results in detail, according to the official report:
- Iccrea: CET1 from 23,3% to 21,3%
- Ps: from 18,3% to 17,1%.
- B for Bank: from 15,8% to 14,1%.
- Unicredit: from 16% to 12,5%.
- Understanding St. Paul: from 13,3% to 12%.
- Banco bpm: from 15% to 11,4%.
Le statements Italian banks confirm their satisfaction with the results. Intesa Sanpaolo highlights the strength of its "diversified and resilient" business model. BPER emphasizes the "significant reduction in impact compared to the 2023 stress test." Banco BPM claims full compliance with the requirements even in the most severe scenario, without affecting its dividend. MPS, historically under scrutiny, declares it achieved "the best results ever" in a stress test. "We were among the most virtuous in the stress test. This solidity allows us to support our shareholders and customers," stated Mauro Pastore, General Manager of the BCC Iccrea Group.
European comparison: France and Germany struggle
The impact on French banks was much more marked (bnp Paribas: CET1 from 12,9% to 9,5%; Crédit Agricole: from 17,2% to 11%; Société Générale: from 13,3% to 8,8%) and Germany (Deutsche Bank: from 13,8% to 10,2%; Commerzbank: from 15,1% to 10,5%; Landesbank Baden-Württemberg: drop from 14,7% to 6,8%).
Among the Spanish, bbva e Santander drop from around 13% to just above 11%.
ECB Focus: More Banks Tested, Losses Under Control
In parallel, the ECB conducted a stress tests on 96 banks of the euro area, including medium-sized institutions. The test replicates the same adverse scenario as the EBA, and highlighted:
Losses overall: 628 billion euros (up from the 548 billion of the 2023 test); CET1 ratio: down from 16% to 12%.
The deterioration was more moderate than in 2023, thanks to higher starting profitability, supported by higher interest rates and good asset quality. However, the ECB warns: the sustainability of current profits is uncertain and could vary significantly from bank to bank.
Dividends and leverage under observation
Although all banks have formally passed the test, 17 European institutes have superato at least in one year of the three-year period 2025-2027 limits of the Mda trigger (Maximum Distributable Amount), activating temporary constraints on the distribution of dividends or on compliance with the leverage ratio.
For one bank, in particular, it was found a violation of SREP Tier 1leverage ratio, a key indicator of structural stability.
