It may be the first day of spring today, but there is little to celebrate for the financial markets: today is also the “day of the three witches" (The "triple witching day“), one of the most feared moments on the financial markets, characterized by a sudden surge in volatility. Today the Federal Council German, the upper house, is called to vote on a law that will allow the creation of a 500 billion euro fund for infrastructure and increased spending on defense: after the approval of the lower house, the vote is almost certain. In UK the finance minister will have to show the public accounts, which are expected to be out of balance.
In general the climate is cautious. This week, full of meetings of the central banks, has seen statements from policy makers around the world show uncertain prospects e blurred mostly of the growing ones trade tensions triggered by the United States under President Donald Trump which will also impose new reciprocal tariffs on April 2. The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England have kept rates stable.
The news of Israeli air strikes on Gaza and the violent explosion of a Ukrainian drone on a Russian military airport have reminded of the growing geopolitical tensions that are pushing investors towards safe assets, including their, which has already risen 16% this year reaching historic highs and the dollar.
Today is the “triple witching day”: it will be a day of high volatility
Investors call a day like today the “triple witching day,” one of the most feared moments in financial markets, characterized by a sudden spike in volatility. This event occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September and December, when several derivatives contracts expire at the same time. Today in particular, about $4.500 trillion in contracts tied to stocks, indices and ETFs will expire, according to Citigroup.
Germany: Bundesrat vote on infrastructure and defense fund almost certain today
In Germany Investors are now expecting the almost certain approval of the law aimed at creating a 500 billion euro fund for infrastructure and increased spending on the defenseThe plan was approved this week by the lower house of the Bundestag, giving a huge boost to conservative leader and future chancellor Friedrich Merz and giving investors reason to hope for a recovery in Europe's largest economy. The bill will pass the upper house of parliament today. Federal Council, but it seems certain that it will be approved.
UK grappling with government finances
After the Bank of England decided very cautiously to leave rates unchanged yesterday, today it is the turn of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves to be in the spotlight across the Channel, called upon to show just how deep the government deficit, as the financial year draws to a close and just days before the budget update on March 26. Government departments have loosened their purse strings to help Reeves meet his budget-cutting targets, but hampered by rising government bond yields and a slowing economy, Reeves is unlikely to be able to meet his current spending target: his ambitious goal for now is to balance spending and tax receipts by the 2029-30 financial year. He is expected to announce today that he has rebuilt a £9,9bn ($12,83bn) fiscal buffer, he said Bloomberg this week.
Wall Street closes below par
The New York Stock Exchange closed below par, failing to benefit from data that confirmed the resilience of the job market and the good progress of the Real Estate Market. The Dow Jones closed down 0,03% at 41.953 points, while the S&P-500 lost 0,22%, closing at 5.663 points. The Nasdaq 100 (-0,3%) was fractionally down, while the S&P 100 (-0,18%) was directionless. Shares of fedex corp. , considered an economic barometer, have collapsed after the company cut its profit forecast given higher costs and signs of weakening demand. Nike Inc. It also cited tariffs and geopolitical tensions as factors that will impact its earnings.
Asia Down: Hong Kong Tech Stocks Also Slip
Asian stocks are set to end the week lower, as rising geopolitical concerns and fears over US tariffs and their impact on the global economy dampened investors' risk appetite, keeping their, considered a safe haven, near record highs. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0,85%, with shares in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Indonesia all falling sharply.
The Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong slipped more than 2%, poised for its second straight week in the red, as investors grew more cautious after tech stocks surged on Tuesday with the index hitting a three-year high. The Hang Seng is still up 18% for the year, the world's best-performing major stock market.
Il Nikkei Japan's stock market edged up 0,3% after a day of public holidays and the broader Topix index hit an eight-month high, led by bank stocks, as stronger-than-expected inflation data fueled expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Data showed that theCore inflation in Japan hit 3,0% in February and an index that excludes the effect of fuel rose at the fastest pace in nearly a year, a sign of mounting price pressure that is reinforcing market expectations for further increases.
THEdollar index against a basket of six peers was steady at 103,84, after rising 0,36% yesterday. The yen was slightly weaker at 149,20 per dollar, but remained close to a near five-month high of 146,545 hit last week. The yen has risen 5% this year on expectations that the BOJ will raise rates again in 2025.
Oil Rises. Watch Out for US Sanctions on Iran
The prices of Petroleum rose, poised to post their best weekly performance since January. The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced fines against an oil refinery and its CEO for having purchased and refined Iranian crude oil worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The oil came from ships linked to Ansarallah, a foreign terrorist organization, and Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics. OFAC also imposed sanctions on 19 entities and ships for shipping millions of barrels of Iranian oil. These oil shipments are part of Iran’s “shadow fleet” of tankers that supply teapot refineries like Luqing Petrochemical. Crude oil futures Brent rose 0,5%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0,6%. Both were set for 2% gains for the week.
European stocks seen opening uncertainly. Eyes on A2a, Buzzi, Unicredit
European stocks are expected to open lower, Eurostoxx 50 futures -0,3%. Expectations for higher spending on infrastructure and defense continue to support European stocks. Today, the German upper house will seal the vote of the lower house, while details are awaited from the meeting in Brussels on ReArmEu. To follow at Piazza Affari: A2a, Buzzi, Unicredit The FTSEMIB index at Piazza Affari closed down 1,55% yesterday. The eighth positive week in the last nine could arrive
A2A The utility of Milan and Brescia aims to grow its electricity and gas customer base through M&A operations even if it shows some coldness towards the 400.000 users that Unoenergy intends to sell. This is what the CEO, Renato Mazzoncini, said.
Azimuth It is in talks with the Roman group Ibl for the purchase of Banca di Sconto with the aim of licensing the new digital institute for which exclusive negotiations are underway with Fsi. MF writes this, adding that an agreement is expected soon.
Banco BPM Intesa raised its target price from 8,50 to 10,90 euros, Buy.
Buzzi Barclays raised the target price from 47 to 57 euros, Overweight.
Enel HSBC has reduced the target to 7,80 euros, confirmed the Buy.
Generali MF writes that Caltagirone CALI.MI obtained 500 million euros from Intesa San Paolo ISPI.MI by pledging to the bank part of its shares in Mediobanca, Generali and Mps. The provision would serve to increase its weight in the assembly of Monte and Leone.
Interpump Board of Directors financial statements (4th quarter results published on February 14).
Pirelli The board of directors will meet on March 26 to discuss the potential impact of the new US data protection law on the company, given that its largest shareholder is China's Sinochem, Il Sole 24 Ore writes.
Saipem Berenberg raised the target price to 3,40 euros, Buy.
Tenaris After investing $110 million, Tenaris is strengthening its fracking capabilities in Argentina, adding a third hydraulic fracturing rig for Vaca Muerta, one of the world’s largest shale gas reserves.
TIM Tim Brasil subsidiary TIMS3.SA said its partnership with C6 has officially ended.
Unicredit With reference to the takeover bid on all the ordinary shares of Banco Bpm, UniCredit announces that it has received from Central Bank of Ireland the go-ahead for the acquisition of an indirect controlling stake in Bbpm Life Dac.
