Stock markets, still stunned by the collapse yesterday around the world due to the escalation of the trade war, seem to find comfort in the words of the Secretary of Commerce of the United States Howard Lutnick who hinted at tariff compromise with Canada and Mexico and said the Trump administration may withdraw some tariffs. futures on stock indices both US and Europeans are on the rise, while the shares of Hong Kong led Asian gains after important statements from China that suggest the arrival of new stimuli. In addition, traders are weighing the situation in Europe, where leaders are trying to organize a peace plan for UkraineTreasuries held onto Tuesday’s declines as the dollar strengthened against all Group of 10 currencies.
Wall Street on a rollercoaster yesterday. Lutnick corrects his aim on tariffs
Frantic movements rocked markets all day yesterday as sentiment shifted rapidly on a series of news stories. US shares were particularly volatile, first nosediving, then recovering and then falling again at the end of the session. While the S&P 500 closed down 1,2%, shares gained in late trading after comments from Lutnick. The Nasdaq closed down 0,36% and the Dow Jones down 1,55%.
The United States could announce a route for tariff exemption on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the North American Free Trade Agreement already todayhe said Lutnick to Fox Business. He added that the tariffs would likely be placed “somewhere in between“with Trump “moving with the Canadians and Mexicans, but not all the way,” Lutnick said, adding that “Both the Mexicans and the Canadians have been on the phone with me all day trying to prove that they’re going to do better.” In his speech to Congress, Trump acknowledged that there could be a “adjustment period” for tariffs, while defending his policies to remake the U.S. economy. He also called for the end of a subsidy program for semiconductors $52 billion and reiterated 25 percent tariffs on aluminum, copper and steel. “There will be a little disruption, but that’s fine with us,” he said. “It won’t be much.”
His speech comes as the latest data shows that the economic activities are slowing down amid the uncertainties of a global trade war. “The market seems to be pricing in the idea that the Trump administration is seeking a deal, rather than focusing on the potential inflationary impact of additional tariffs on the United States,” said Tomo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management.
Asian stocks rally, China points finger at Taiwan
Following the Nasdaq's move in the final stages of the session, the Hong Kong stock market is moving higher, with the Hang Seng index at +2,3%. The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges is just above parity.
La China has increased its budget deficit at its highest level in the last 30 years, with a deficit/GDP ratio of 4%, while fighting the deflation, real estate crash and now one trade war with the United States. Policy makers have also set a target of inflation of 2%, down from a long-standing target of 3% (it ended the year around zero due to weak demand and sluggish consumption). The National People's Congress in Beijing set a economic growth target of around 5% for 2025, for the third consecutive year, and aims to create 12 million new jobs in 2025, while economists expect Chinese officials to add stimuli. The index Caixin Pmi rose to 51,5 points in February from 51,1 the previous month, marking the highest reading since last November. It was the 16th consecutive month of growth in theprivate sector activities, with manufacturing posting its biggest expansion in three months and the services sector rising more than expected.
La military spending will increase by 7,2%, the same growth rate as the previous year. In 2024, “great progress was made in national defense and military development. This year, we will continue to apply Xi Jinping Thought on Strengthening the Military and implement the military strategy for the new era,” the premier said. “We will make every effort to achieve great progress toward the goal of the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army” which falls in 2027, the deadline for resolving the Taiwan issue, according to some analysts. Beijing authorities intend to move forward “steadily on the reunification of Taiwan'. Speaking tonight at the National People's Congress, Premier Li Qiang was categorical: “We will implement the Communist Party's general policy for the new era on resolving the Taiwan question. We will stick to the principle of 'One China' and the 1992 Consensus and will resolutely oppose separatist activities aimed at Taiwan independence and external interference, so as to promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations,” Li added, drawing applause from the delegates.
The stock market bounced back after three sessions of decline Taipei, Taiex index +1%. The stock exchange Alone gains over 1%. The BSE Sensex index Mumbai, is up 0,7%. In contrast, the stock market Sidney closes lower and hits its lowest point since December.
The bag of Tokyo is rising and the yen weakens slightly: Nikkei index +0,4%, cross at 1,49,8 from 149,1 yesterday. Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, signaled that the benchmark interest rate remains on the path of gradual increase
On the corporate front, Blackrock Inc. led one of the year's biggest acquisitions in a deal that marked both an expansion of the company's reach into infrastructure and a victory for Trump, who had raised concerns about control of key ports near the Panama Canal. CK shares Hutchinson jumped as much as 25% in Hong Kong today, maximum in 27 years.
The European path to support Ukraine
European leaders are moving in various ways to implement a plan to support Ukraine and try to end the war. In Germany, parties trying to form a new government are initiating historic deals to create an infrastructure fund to increase defense spending and boost growth, while easing fiscal rules. Along the same lines, the European Commission has proposed borrowing up to 150 billion euros to lend to EU governments as part of a rearmament plan. In the background, of course, are the shaky peace negotiations in Ukraine, with Washington seemingly moving away from its allies in Europe and closer to Moscow.
In the evening, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was “ready” to start peace talks under the “strong leadership” of Donald Trump. In the meantime, he said he was willing to sign the agreement on minerals, which had fallen through after the disastrous meeting in the Oval Office. Trump seemed very pleased with the reconciliation letter. It is likely that he stop military aid yesterday has accelerated the process.
European stocks bounce back after yesterday's crashes
European stock markets are seen bounce at the start of the session (futures on Eutostoxx50 +1,63%). IERI (Yesterday) experienced their darkest day since last August, a combined effect of duties and Ukraine. The EuroStoxx 600 index closed down -2,6%, weighed down by the fall of Auto (-5,4%), Banks (-4%), Tech (-4%). Only Food, Distribution and Utilities were saved from the debacle. For the FTSEMIB of Piazza Affari, the -3,41% of Monday represents the worst daily result in the last two years, but the index was coming from a series of 21 period records recorded starting from January 15.
Generali. Unicredit could rise from 5,2 to 10% ahead of the meeting, the Sun 24 Hours.
Bank Bpm. Then came the green light from the Bank of Italy for the public purchase offer promoted by Banco Bpm Vita on Anima Holding. The authorization is "without prescriptions, conditions or limitations". Therefore, the condition of effectiveness of the offer is considered fulfilled.
Aurelia, a company of the Gavio group that adheres to the consultation agreement between Mediobanca shareholders, purchased 4 shares of the bank on March 25.000 at an average price of 16,76 euros. In addition, it sold additional put options expiring on March 21, 2025, with underlying 125.000 shares at an average price of 0,281 euros, and put options expiring on April 17, 2025 with underlying 250.000 shares at an average price of 0,459 euros.
Team meets the board of directors on the 2024 budget (preliminary data were already communicated in February).
Campari. After yesterday's results, Barclays cut the target price on the stock from 7,8 to 7,6 euros (equal weight rating).
Inwit has planned a new buyback plan of 400 million euros within 12 months and proposed the payment of an extraordinary dividend of 0,2147 euros per share, equal to approximately 200 million euros in November 2025.
Tenaris announced that it has completed its share buyback program of up to $700 million. The steel pipe manufacturer has repurchased 36.862.132 common shares, representing 3,17% of its share capital, effective November 11, 2024, for a total consideration of €668,2 million ($700 million). Tenaris said it intends to cancel the repurchased shares in due course.
Business Square. After the market closes, the announcement of the quarterly review of the Piazza Affari indices is expected, which will be effective from March 24. In the blue chip index, the Ftse Mib, no changes are expected, while Txt e-solutions and Rcs should enter the mid cap in place of Safilo and Tinexta.
