Although from geopolitical point of view the tension remains high after the crash between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Trump in the Oval Office, investors appeared encouraged that European leaders had agreed to work out a Peace Plan for Ukraine to present to the United States and look elsewhere. For example, the world of cryptocurrency, which rose sharply following the news that the bitcoin would have been included in a new strategic reserve Dedicated use, while the concerns continue to be unclear trade policies of Trump and the state of health of theUS economyAsian stock markets posted modest gains.
The proposal for a one-month truce between Russia and Ukraine
It has been a very intense weekend from a geopolitical point of view and this morning the markets are called to evaluate its economic significance. After the sensational rift on Friday evening at the White House with Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky flew to London to attend the summit that saw the birth of what British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has dubbed, “the coalition of the willing”. The aim of the diplomatic initiative is to achieving lasting peace in Ukraine, With the 'US support and also through a progressive Europe's rearmament plan. French President Emmanuel Macron he said that a part of the European countries proposes a truce of a month between Russia and Ukraine.
Crypto Soars on Trump's Reserve Idea, But Financing Questions Remain
It was a memorable day for fans of cryptocurrency, after President Donald Trump announced on social media that a proposed digital asset reserve would include bitcoin, ether, XRP, solana and cardano. Il Bitcoin rose by about 10%, while the Ether jumped 13% before slowing a bit, as details Details on how the fund will work are not yet clear and will presumably be outlined at Friday’s White House Crypto Summit.
Moreover, analysts are wondering including exactly the reserve will be financed, given that the government has $36 trillion in debt: So borrowing to buy cryptocurrency would seem difficult. Some have suggested that the government could use cryptocurrency seized in criminal cases in recent years, although this would only be a paper transfer rather than actual new demand.
Still Uncertain Tariffs and the Weight on the US Economy
It is also uncertain whether Trump's 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will be applied on Tuesday, along with an additional 10% on the China. U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Sunday that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect Tuesday, but that Trump would decide whether to stick to the planned 25% level, suggesting it was not a done deal. There was also speculation that Trump could soften the blow if Mexico and Canada agreed to impose their own tariffs on Chinese imports and/or if the duties could be delayed until April 1, when a trade study is due to be completed.
The stakes are even higher as recent US economic data they surprised at fall, causing the Atlanta Fed's much-followed GDPNow tracker to swing from +2,3% to -1,5%, sparking discussions about a possible recession. The rates I am essentially a US consumer tax and analysts assume that would damage consumption at a time when the United States no longer seems so exceptional. Only the threat of tariffs pushed imports higher in January, bringing the US trade deficit at all-time high.
An additional 10% import tax will also come into effect this week. Chinese, just as Wednesday the third annual session of the opensNational People's Assembly, during which they could be announced stimulus measures (2-3 trillion yuan equal to 274 billion dollars) and possible reprisals against the United States.
Friday le US shares have closed up after a choppy trading session, with the Dow Jones up about 1,4% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up about 1,6%.
ECB in Action This Week. Fed Awaits Payrolls on Friday
From a monetary policy perspective, the week will focus on the meeting of the Governing Council on Thursday. European Central Bank expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2,50%, after a series of weak data, and is expected to cut to below 2% by the end of the year.
Across the Atlantic, key U.S. labor market data is due Friday, a weak result that would fuel market bets that the Federal Reserve may have to cut interest rates three times this year. Fed funds futures now imply 69 basis points of easing by December, up from 46 basis points a week ago. Treasury yields 10-year extended their rally with a dip to 4,220%, leaving them down 35 basis points in February, their biggest monthly decline since late 2023. On Friday, hours after the jobs report, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak on the economic outlook; at least seven other officials will speak this week.
Dollar weakens on all fronts. Euro strengthens above $1,04
In the currency markets, theeuro went up 0,5% to $1,0421, on hopes of progress in a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, after falling to $1,0360 on Friday. The dollar fell to $1,4445 canadian dollars, after rising 1,7% last week, and fell to 20,4586 mexican pesos. It has given some ground to the yen Japanese yen, settling at 150,32 yen, while the dollar index fell slightly to 107,180.
Prices Of their rose 0,5% to $2.873 an ounce, after falling about 3% last week. The Petroleum rebounded slightly after falling last week on speculation that the United States might ease sanctions on Russian manufacturing, while the risk of a global trade war could hit energy demand. Futures on the Brent rose 76 cents to $73,57 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures rose 74 cents to $70,50 a barrel.
Asian stocks firm. Chinese manufacturing recovers. Eyes on Prada
In Asia Pacific, most stocks rose after Wall Street closed higher on Friday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0,3%, while Japan's Nikkei rose 1,0%. Stocks in Shanghai (+0,4%) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng +1,7%). Taipei's Taiex index fell 1,5%, mainly due to the -4% Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
Il Prada group listed in Hong Kong has recorded a rise of almost 3% after the hypothesis, indicated by Bloomberg yesterday, according to which of Prada and Capri holdings, owner of Versace, are close to closing an agreement by the end of March for the sale of the fashion house founded by Gianni Versace, if the negotiations go well. The agreement on the valuation of the fashion house has reportedly been found on a figure of up to 1,5 billion euros. The Prada group will present its results for 2024 on Tuesday.
Chinese blue-chip stocks rose 0,8%, helped by a rise in the Caixin/S&P manufacturing PMI to 50,8 in February from 50,1, indicating that theChinese manufacturing activity is accelerating more than expected. This is the fifth consecutive month where the index remained above 50, the threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Both production and new orders increased in February, reaching levels highest in the last three months, ending a two-month streak of declines. China's official manufacturing PMI, also released Saturday, beat expectations, returning to expansion territory at 50,2 in February, up from 49,1 in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said Saturday. The rise in export orders signals stronger external demand for Chinese goods, likely buoyed by U.S. importers who have anticipated tariffs. The market for South Korea is closed. BSE Sensex index down 0,3% Mumbai, .
European stock markets seen positively: eyes on luxury and banks
European stock markets are seen opening in lslight increase based on futures indications: the Eurostoxx50 future is up 0,7%, while the Dow Jones futures are up 0,02%, the S&P 500 futures are up 0,16%, and the Nasdaq futures are up 0,23%.
Banking risk. The shareholders' meeting of Friday Bpm bank has given a clear verdict: yes to the relaunch of the takeover bid on Anima. With an almost unanimous approval of 97,64% of votes in favor, the bank has raised the stakes and brought the offer from 6,2 to 7 euros per share, strengthening its position in the game for control of the savings management company. Deutsche Bank has purchased 5% of Banco BPM on behalf of a client, with speculation that Crédit Agricole could potentially rise to 20%.
Unicredit The bank led by Andrea Orcel announced on Friday evening the filing with Consob of the information prospectus relating to the exchange offer on Banco BPM, updated following the presentation of the annual results of the two institutions. The green light for the prospectus, which Consob provides only once all the other authorizations have been received, including that of the ECB, is expected around the end of the month, explains a source familiar with the process. A meeting is scheduled in Rome today between the top management of UniCredit and the government officials responsible for the approval process of the takeover bid on Banco BPM within the procedure relating to the 'golden power'.
Luxury. Stocks in the sector could be affected by the possibility of Prada buying the fashion house founded by Gianni Versace. Prada shares listed in Hong Kong rose almost 3%. The agreement on the valuation of the fashion house was reportedly found on a figure of up to 1,5 billion euros. The Prada group will present its results for 2024 on Tuesday.
Generali The government is in favor of any initiative aimed at keeping Italians' savings in the country. This was stated by Undersecretary Giovanbattista Fazzolari, questioned about the recent wave of consolidation operations that has hit the Italian financial sector, in particular with reference to the takeover bid by MPS on Mediobanca and the Generali-Natixis operation. A spokesperson for Generali declared that the company's anchoring in Italy is solid and beyond question and that the agreement defined with Bpce to create with Natixis the largest European savings management platform by revenues "does not call into question the investment choices of Italian savings, which remain the responsibility of Generali and not of the platform".
Italgas Ascopiave is ready to take over a portion of the utilities that Italgas will probably have to cede to obtain the antitrust approval for the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas, writes the Corriere della Sera Sunday. Negotiations can only begin after the Competition Authority has authorized the operation, and will involve approximately 650.000 users, which could be worth 650 million euros, he adds. Acea would also be interested.
Leonardo JP Morgan raises its target price to 44 euros, from 33,5 euros. “We must rearm ourselves,” said yesterday the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen
Stellantis. The government, with the involvement of the Ministries of Economy, Business and Defense, is studying a plan with a ten-year horizon to facilitate the conversion of at least a part of Italian companies from the automotive sector to the war components sector, writes the Corriere della Sera Saturday. Five Star Movement MPs on the Industry-Productive Activities and Defense Committees of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate asked the Prime Minister for clarification regarding the “secret plan for the military conversion of the automotive industry” after the article was published.
TIM. Hsbc raised its target from 0,36 to 0,37 euros, strengthening the Buy. It postponed the shareholders' meeting to June 24 from April 10 "to update and complete the engagement activities towards shareholders", after Poste Italiane entered the capital in place of Cdp. According to Corriere della Sera on Saturday, movements in the shareholding structure cannot be ruled out with a role for Iliad and Cvc, which according to the newspaper, has never interrupted talks with Vivendi on the share in Tim. According to the Messenger on Saturday an involvement of Iliad in the match between CVC and Vivendi it would not be appreciated by the latter
Webuild: Reuters, also taking up BILD, reported that the parties are negotiating the formation of the new German Government are evaluating the possibility of establishing a infrastructure fund from 400/500 billion euros.
