From the latter part of the US session until the Asian hours, some weakness spread across the stock markets, falling from the peaks of the previous session. The word of order is caution, in view of the establishment of Donald Trump as President of the United States on Monday, which is also a public holiday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day: Fears are for surprises not only in Trump's speech, but also in possible immediate executive orders, which may include rates massive.
Yields and Dollar Fall. Bitcoin Returns Above $101K
Instead, the bond yields and it has weakened dollar in the wake of renewed bets on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June.
Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields stood at 4,6125% in the latest session, after falling to their lowest since Jan. 6 at 4,5880% yesterday, when Fed Governor Christopher Waller said three or four rate cuts were still possible this year if U.S. economic data weakened.
Traders now see the Fed’s June meeting as a likely time for another quarter-point rate cut. Yields on 24-year Japanese government bonds have eased alongside overnight moves in Treasuries, although comments this week from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and one of his deputies, Ryozo Himino, have boosted bets for a quarter-point hike on Jan. XNUMX.
Closing on parity for the New York Stock Exchange, with the Dow Jones standing at 43.153 points, while, on the contrary, the S&P-500 fell towards the end, closing below the levels of the day before at 5.937 points. The Nasdaq 100 (-0,69%) and the S&P 100 (-0,75%) were slightly down. On the side of quarterly, Morgan Stanley announced a profit that more than doubled in the fourth quarter, while the quarterly Bank of America was above expectations with a jump in investment banking commissions. Worth noting Apple , which marks a decrease of -4,04% and Tesla Motors which drops by 3,36%.
The yen hit a new monthly high of 154,98 per dollar overnight, with the U.S. currency also falling on the prospect of earlier cuts by the Fed.'dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies including the yen, fell 0,06% to 108,90. The euro managed to maintain the slight rise achieved in the previous session at $1,0308, while the struggling pound remained unchanged at $1,2237.
Falling bond yields supported alternative assets. For the first time since January 7, the Bitcoin has reached quota dollars 101.769,43. Their settled at $2.714, approaching Thursday's high of $2.724,55, the highest level in more than a month. Speculation about a Fed rate cut also supported the PetroleumBrent crude futures rose 13 cents, or 0,2%, to $81,42 a barrel, after falling 0,9% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 rose 27 cents, or 0,3%, to $78,95 a barrel, after falling 1,7%.
In Asia, China shines with a GDP of 5%. Tokyo in sharp decline
It's just the China Asia Pacific is showing positive signs this morning, supported by data on its economic growth, while other markets are weak, in particular Tokyo which lost more than 1%. The MSCI world index fell 0,05% and the main index of Asia-Pacific shares lost 0,4%.
The CSI 300 index of the lists of Shanghai and Shenzhen is up 0,4%, bringing its gain for the week to +2,4%. The Hang Seng Index Hong Kong +0,2% and on the week it is at +2,7%. TAIEX of Taipei +0,2%. GDP rose by 5,4% year on year in the fourth quarter, +1,6% on a quarterly basis. The extension of the last three months of the year comes after the 4,6% of the third quarter, the 4,7% of the second and the 5,3% of the first.
Il GDP 2024 in China showed one growth of 5% at the lowest levels in recent decades, but in line with government guidelinesThe massive plan of supporting measures of growth launched by Beijing starting from the end of September, together with still sustained exports, have allowed to hit that 5% of GDP growth that was the minimum threshold to avoid a further deterioration of business and consumer confidence. The 2024 result confirmed the estimate of President Xi Jinping expressed in his New Year's speech, in which he underlined that the economy has grown "by about 5%" on the basis of the new strategies desired by the leader so that GDP depends less on real estate sales and more on high-end production. The industrial production is growing by 5,8% in 2024 (+4,6% in 2023), with the acceleration to +6,2% in December, while the retail sales stood at +3,5% (they were at +7,2% in 2023), with a +3,7% in the last month of the year. The unemployment rate in December at +5,1%, up from the previous +5% (the forecast was +5%). GDP grew despite a "complicated and severe environment with increasing external pressures and internal difficulties", the National Bureau of Statistics noted, in the midst of "difficulties and challenges" that are also foreseeable in the future. Analysts now estimate that China's growth is set to slow further in 2025, between 4,4% and 4,6%, and even drop below 4% in 2026, but the Office anticipated that "with a package of incremental policies implemented in a timely manner, social confidence has been strengthened and the economy has recovered significantly.”
Stocks rise chip manufacturers following the launch of investigations by Chinese authorities into US companies selling low-medium tech semiconductors in China: the investigation by the Ministry of Commerce aims to verify the existence of support and subsidies from Washington.
Le Japanese stocks have performed significantly below expectations, with the Nikkei on track to end its worst week in three months, weighed down by a strengthening yen above 155 per dollar for the first time in nearly a month as traders ramped up bets on a BOJ rate hike next week. Tokyo's Nikkei fell about 1%, bringing its weekly tally to -3%. The yen strengthened against the dollar to 155,4 from 156 yesterday.
The yen, the Japanese currency, is expected to post its biggest weekly gain since late November.
European stock markets cautious and little moved. Technical deadlines
Today is day of technical deadlines: stock and option futures expiring in January 2025 have expired. Yesterday, a new historical record for the Frankfurt Dax, a new record since 2008 for our FTSEMIB and an almost 25-year record for the Eurostoxx 50: all this suggests a positive trend in stock prices, say Websim analysts. For today, European stock markets are expected to be little moved at the start of the session (+0,02% the future on the Eurostoxx50)
Saipem announced that it has sold its 10% stake in KCA Deutag (KCAD) to Helmerich & Payne (H&P). The consideration for the sale of the stake is approximately $89,5 million, of which approximately $8 million will be held in an escrow account pending the satisfaction of certain conditions under the existing purchase and sale agreement between the majority shareholders of KCAD and H&P. The stake held by Saipem was acquired in 2022 as part of the sale of its Onshore Drilling activities; the book value of the stake as of June 30, 2024 was €82 million.
Iren yesterday placed its first perpetual subordinated hybrid bond issue with a nominal value of 500 million euros, raising orders for 4 billion euros.