Investors Americans, returning after the holiday, they will find a Europe and also an Asia with many positive signs and historical records reached in the previous hours on stock lists in the hope of a peace in Ukraine, with the corollary of a strong increase in defense spending in case of agreement. Yesterday's rally of defense titles in Europe, led by the German Rheinmetall (+14%), spread to Tokyo, where shares of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have jumped by 3%, approaching historic highs. On the other hand, the Government bonds in Europe because any increase in defense spending would also lead to a weakening of the public accounts and more loan issuance by countries: the movement affected all countries, including Germany, so that the spread have remained little changed.
Eyes on the Possibility of Peace in Ukraine
All attention is on the developments of the situation in Ukraine. The President of the United States Donald Trump organized bilateral peace talks with the Russia, which are due to start later today in Saudi Arabia, but the terrain is uneven. On one side, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared that the country will not recognize any decision taken during deliberations at which he was not present. On the other hand, French President Emmanuel Macron he called yesterday to Paris an emergency summit on Ukraine after US officials suggested Europe would have no role in the talks in Saudi Arabia. The leaders convened, including the UK's Keir Starmer, Prime Minister Meloni and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, discussed How to strengthen Europe's defence capacity. Although no specific mention was made of joint bonds, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said new financing measures will be presented in time for the summit on 20-21 March. The British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said he is prepared to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, while European leaders made no such promise yesterday in Paris. “We are convinced that the Europeans will have to invest better, more and together for their safety and defense, today and in the future,” he wrote Macron in a late-night message posted on X.
US Treasury Eyes Potential Huge Capital Gain From Gold Reserve Revaluation
The rates of Treasury yield, which rose last week after the inflation data, are now falling again. Meanwhile their continues to steal the scene from bitcoin, which has been dozing for a few weeks below one hundred thousand. The reference precious metal, which recorded its largest daily decline in the last two months on Friday, is rising again today. Antonio Cesarano Strategist of Intermonte says that at this moment the prices of gold and bonds are interdependent: the US government in fact, with the approval of the central bank, wants to leverage the gold reserves to get that long-term interest rates fall hoped for by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in his latest public appearances. The outline of the plan, probably developed by the White House's chief economic adviser Stephen Miran, was indicated by Financial Times last week. In the following days, confirmations emerged. The starting point is the colossal capital gain, equal to approximately eight hundred billion, which the government would obtain revaluing gold reserves at today's prices: gold was booked at $42,5 an ounce in 1973 and has never been updated. If, after having obtained the green light from Congress, the White House were to decide to monetize the most important item of Treasury assets, Donald Trump could ask the Federal Reserve, the entity that physically holds the ingots, to have the resources generated by the revaluation available in the Treasury Government Account (TGA).
Tech's Light Still Shines in Asia: Alibaba and Xiaomi Lead the Way
The stock market actions of Hong Kong are at their highest since October and are gaining 1% (+14,5% since the beginning of the year) driven by technology stocks: the index Hang Seng Tech is at the highest levels of the last three years, with a +25% since the beginning of the year, riding the wave of enthusiasm generated by the rare meeting on Monday between the president Xi Jinping and business leaders. They are still Alibaba and Xiaomi, the two heavyweights of the tech index, are the biggest contributors. Investors are looking ahead to several major corporate accounts, including those of the Chinese search giant Baidu which will show them later today, while Alibaba's are on the agenda for Thursday. Baidu shares have stabilized after a sell-off in the previous session, when founder Robin Li was not spotted at the Beijing symposium.
In his speech at the event yesterday, the president Xi Jinping he promised to abolish fines unjustified against private companies and urged entrepreneurs to maintain their competitive spirit. Jack Ma of Alibaba and the founder of DeepSeek Liang Wenfeng were among the attendees at the meeting. The event “marks a significant shift in China’s approach to the private sector,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “This should add further momentum to Chinese tech names that have rallied on the back of DeepSeek development and the flow of capital away from the Magnificent Seven.” The focus is now on the annual legislative meeting in March, where the country’s top leaders gather to vote on the 2025 economic plan, where concrete measures to support the private sector could be discussed.
Tokyo Stock Exchange rises, index Nikkei +0,5%, while the yen weakens against the dollar, at 152,1. The Japanese household register will allow the Taiwanese citizens to also indicate 'Taiwan' as a place of origin instead of 'China' starting in May, the Justice Ministry announced with the introduction of the 'nationality/region' section. The change will bring the system into line with Japan's certificates of residence and residence cards, which already allow the mention of regional names. Currently, Japan only recognizes country names in official documents, so both Chinese and Taiwanese citizens are listed as China in the records. Under the new policy, individuals previously listed as originating from China can apply to have their name changed to Taiwan. While Taipei welcomed the move, Beijing did not hide its irritation, noting that the island is "an inalienable part of China's territory," Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun noted.
The bag of Alone gains 0,5%. The BSE Sensex index in Mumbai loses 0,4%: since the beginning of the year the Indian stock market marks a decline of 3%, against the +3% of the index Bloomberg Asia Pacific.
As widely expected, the Central Bank of Australia has started its rate-cutting cycle by lowering interest rates for the first time since 2020. However, the bank appears in no rush to make further cuts, which has provided little support for the Australian dollar. The situation is somewhat different across the Tasman Sea, in New Zealand, where a 50 basis point cut is expected tomorrow and an easing of more than 100 basis points is expected this year.
The possibility of an end to the clashes pushes the euro higher
The euro settled just below $1,05, while the yen remained steady at 151,74 after solid growth data boosted the chances of a rate hike in Japan in the coming months. GBP traded at around $1,26033, just below its highest level in two months. In commodity markets, their gave up Friday's all-time high at $2.895 an ounce, after rising for seven straight weeks. The group of producers of Petroleum OPEC+ is considering postponing a series of monthly inventory increases scheduled to begin in April, despite Trump’s calls to lower prices, Bloomberg News reported Monday, citing delegates. Brent crude held overnight gains at $75,42 a barrel.
European stock markets still seen positively
I European futures show a slight increase this morning (+0,07%) around the record highs reached yesterday when the pan-European STOXX 600 index closed with a rise of 0,5% with thedefense and aerospace stock indicator (.SXPARO) which surged 4,6% to an all-time high after more than doubling in value since Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago. Investors expect the sector's earnings to continue to grow strongly, driven by a significant increase in defense budgets to meet new security needs, which analysts have called a "supercycle" for the sector. Hopes for an end to hostilities in Ukraine have also improved sentiment in other European sectors. “A resolution to the conflict in Ukraine could provide positive growth impulses in Europe, including higher consumer confidence, lower energy prices and easier financing conditions,” said Bruno Schneller, managing director of Erlen Capital Management.
Eni announced this morning that he had signed with KKR, an investment company, an agreement to increase participation in enilive with an additional investment of 587,5 million euros, bringing KKR's stake at 30%. The transaction, which optimizes Eni's capital structure, which maintains control over Enilive, follows last October's agreement for the acquisition of 25% by KKR, based on a post-money valuation of 11,75 billion in terms of equity value for 100% of Enilive. Francesco Gattei, Chief Transition & Financial Officer of Eni, said: "KKR's additional investment confirms Enilive's attractiveness for the market. Enilive is a solid and growing company, with a significant financial partner, which will play a crucial role in reducing emissions generated by the end-use of our products, a key aspect for our path to Net Zero by 2050"
Team. Barclays raises the target to 0,37 euros. According to the results MF, yesterday a first telephone conversation was supposed to have taken place between the top management of Poste and those of Vivendi. In its new role as Tim's second largest shareholder (at 9,8%), Poste has apparently chosen to try to open a dialogue with the French to collaborate in the management of the Italian telecommunications giant, the newspaper writes. The French have reiterated that the strategy of selling the 23,75% in its possession has not changed for now.
Unicredit has a direct and indirect participation of 5,229% in the capital of Generali as of February 10th, according to the latest Consob findings. The CEOs of the two companies, Andrea Orcel and Philippe Donnet, had a private meeting in recent days, according to Il Sole 24 Ore . The two companies declined to comment. According to Republic the meeting took place on February 14th and was probably requested by Donnet about a month after the presentation of the lists for the renewal of the board of directors of Generali, which sees the CEO in the helm for nine years and a candidate for a fourth term. Corriere della Sera hypothesizes that Delfin and Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone could present a “short” list of candidates for the council, without therefore proposing an alternative CEO candidate to Donnet, re-proposed by Mediobanca. In that case they would wait for the outcome of the takeover bid by Monte Paschi on Piazzetta Cuccia and in case of success, they would subsequently move to change the board.
