Le political turmoil I am the center of attention on one side in French, where today the chambers are preparing to vote on the motions of no confidence that could overthrow the fragile coalition government; on the other hand in the South Korea, where President Yoon had declared martial law, only to revoke the decision a few hours later, triggering the biggest political crisis in decades in Asia's fourth-largest economy. In Usa Stock markets closed little changed yesterday, but still with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq at highs, with stocks linked to tech which extended recent gains ahead of further employment data.
Tech stocks shine on Wall Street as Fed data is scrutinized
On the US stock exchanges they continued purchases in the technology sector already seen returning in the previous post. The focus is on the next ones Fed moves at the FOMC meeting on December 17-18, and investors are watching for any signs. Two Federal Reserve officials said yesterday that they see inflation heading toward the central bank’s 2% target and that the labor market is “robust.” They stopped short of saying they would support another rate cut later in the month, but on Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was “currently” inclined to support another rate cut this month.
The key data for investors to watch will be Friday's monthly employment report. They are also looking ahead to November's private payrolls and the Institute for Supply Management's utilities report. A report yesterday showed that U.S. job openings rose sharply in October, while layoffs fell to the highest level in a year and a half.
Financial markets are looking at a roughly 72% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week's Fed policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The Dow Jones fell 0,17% to 44.705,53, the S&P 500 gained 0,05% to 6.049,88 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0,40% to 19.480,91. The S&P 500 is up 5,7% in November and about 27% since the beginning of the year. In the S&P 500 basket by sectors telecommunications (+ 1,12%) and informatics (+0,56%). At the bottom of the list, the biggest declines were seen in the utilities (-0,88%), financial (-0,74%) and industrial goods (-0,65%) sectors.
At the top of the Wall Street technology giants, it is positioned MetaPlatforms (+3,51%). To be noted Amazon closed up 1,30% after the company announced a new suite of artificial intelligence platforms at its annual AWS conference. Apple (+ 1,28%). Tesla closed down 1,59% after data showed the automaker's sales of China-made electric vehicles fell 4,3% year-on-year to 78.856 in November.
The worst performances were recorded on Microchip Technology, which closed at -7,01%. Heavy sales on Intel, which suffers a decrease of 6,10%. Poor performance for ON Semiconductor, which records a decrease of 5,60%
Cryptocurrencies: Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin
At a time when the ether was losing a bit of appeal in the face of the bitcoin, it looks like the second-largest cryptocurrency in terms of valuation is making a comeback. With record activity on its derivatives markets and growing user engagement with decentralized finance (DeFi), ether could be back to its all-time highs. Thus, the Ethereum derivatives market is on fire. According to CoinGlass , open interest in ETH perpetual and standard futures has reached an all-time high of 6,32 million ETH, worth over $27 billion, up 17% since the beginning of the month. As of November 1, the ether has even surpassed the bitcoin, up 47,5% versus BTC's 38,5%.
In Asia, keep an eye on political turmoil in South Korea
Asian bags nervous and Currencies volatile, as traders rushed to weather the political storm in South Korea, where martial law was imposed, then lifted a few hours later. Some easing came after the central bank of Korea said it was ready for action and the finance minister announced that the government was also ready to use all available measures to stabilize financial markets with “unlimited liquidity”.
La Seoul Stock Exchange is down 1,5% at the end of the session, from -2,3% overnight, while the won, the local currency, is losing around 1%: the cross is at its highest level since the beginning of the year at 1.412, after having touched 1,43.
In response to the attempted coup, the central bank of Korea has announced that it is ready to take the necessary measures to maintain the stability of financial markets. The Bank of Korea will increase the liquid assets in the short term and will take “active” measures, according to the statement released after a board meeting.
The announcement came after President Yoon Suk Yeol backtracked and lifted martial law, which he had introduced a few hours earlier. In the midst of this, there was a popular uprising and a vote in parliament against the law's implementation. Finance Minister Choi Sang-Mok announced that the government, in addition to the central bank is ready to use all available measures to stabilize financial and currency markets, putting "unlimited liquidity" on the table. The president's move, apparently supported by the defense minister, has brought the rival parties into agreement. The People Power Party, in power in South Korea but without a majority in Parliament, and the Democratic Party, which instead controls the National Assembly with the other opposition parties, have found themselves united in calling for the resignation of President Yoon Suk-yeol, in response to the chaos created by martial law, declared and withdrawn after six hours during the night.
After a joint parliamentary vote to block the presidential move and the subsequent declaration of recall passed around 4.30:20.30 a.m. local time (200:300 p.m. Tuesday in Italy) during a cabinet meeting, political forces called on Yoon to step down. The Democratic Party said on Tuesday that its lawmakers had threatened to formally initiate proceedings to impeach him if he did not resign. “President Yoon Suk-yeol’s declaration of martial law was a clear violation of the Constitution. He did not meet any of the requirements for declaring it,” the party said in a statement, saying it “was a serious act of rebellion and provides a perfect basis for his impeachment.” Impeachment would require the support of two-thirds of parliament, or 192 of its 190 members. The Democrats and other small opposition parties together have 10 seats: but when parliament rejected Yoon's martial law with a unanimous vote of the XNUMX present, about XNUMX votes came from the People Power Party.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0,5%. The Nikkei Index Tokyo is at parity and the yen is little moved, just below the psychological threshold of 150. The Hang Song is moderately up Hong Kong, +0,3%. The CSI 0,2 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges fell by 300%. China increased support for the yuan by setting a significantly stronger-than-expected daily benchmark rate after the managed currency weakened to a one-year low in the previous session. The People's Bank of China set the dollar-yuan exchange rate at 7,1934. The premium over the Bloomberg average widened from the previous session and stood at its highest since August. Beijing's preferred tool for guiding expectations for the yuan has been above the 7,2 target level since early November, coinciding with the dollar's strong appreciation.
The stock market fell by 0,4% Sidney, the Australian dollar weakens after data showed a weaker-than-expected economy. Australia's gross domestic product rose 0,8% from a year earlier, its weakest reading excluding the pandemic since December 1991. On a per capita basis, GDP fell for the seventh consecutive quarter, also its worst since 1991. Swap traders have increased bets to fully price in an interest rate cut in April, up from 60% yesterday. "The weakness in growth highlights the need for an interest rate cut, but it is difficult for the RBA as inflation remains high," said Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors.
In Europe, eyes on the French government. The future on the 10-year BTP marks its tenth consecutive rise
European stock markets are seen opening little changed with Eurostoxx 600 futures down 0,15%. Dax futures -0,1%. Cac40 futures in Paris -0,2%. Milan FTSEMIB yesterday up 1,1%.
Attention remains high for the French, where today the vote of confidence for the government will be held. Futures on French government bonds are weak, while the future on XNUMX-year BTP records the tenth consecutive increase, an event that has never occurred before from spring 2020The euro is not far from its two-year low hit in November.
I French deputies will vote for starting from 16pm, a motion of censure which, barring any last-minute unforeseen events, will bring down the government led by the Conservative Prime Minister Michael Barnier, in office for only three months, leaving the country on the brink of a new political crisis.
Investors have been weighing on French assets during the political crisis, as the spread between French government bonds and the German benchmark widened further and the euro sell-off accelerated.
Since President Emmanuel Macron called early elections in early June, the French stock exchange CAC 40 has fallen nearly 10%, making it the heaviest of the EU's major economies. The single currency has fallen nearly 4% over the same period.
Meanwhile the head of the Bundesbank He called for a softer debt brake to boost investment.
Mount Paschi. From the communications released by Consob it emerges that Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone since November 25 holds a stake aggregated in the capital of Monte dei Paschi equal to 5,057%. The participation is held through ten controlled companies. In detail, 4,509% is related to voting rights attributable to Banca MPS shares, while the remaining 0,548% is related to other long positions with physical settlement (put options expiring on 21 March 2025). Furthermore Barclays, Consob also writes, holds an aggregate stake in the capital of the Sienese institute equal to 5,401%. The stake is held through three controlled companies. In detail, 1,102% is related to voting rights attributable to shares of the banking institute, 4,257% is related to other long positions with physical settlement (“right to recall” without expiration date), while the remaining 0,042% refers to other long positions with cash settlement (Portfolio Swap” with expiration April 29, 2025).
Unicredit. According to Deutsche Bank analysts, the Milanese institution could put three billion more on the table to acquire Banco Bpm. Analysts have also raised the target price on the Piazza Meda shares from 7,2 to 8,6 euros in the wake of expectations of a substantial increase in the price of the takeover bid. The value identified is based on the growth prospects of the Bank, also in light of the options in the M&A with Anima and Mps and is equivalent to a valuation higher than three billion euros compared to that initially formulated by Andrea Orcel. Orcel is expected to meet the number one of the Credit Agricole, Philippe Brassac, Friday 20 December, writes this morning MF, even if there is no confirmation yet, and in any case within the Christmas break
EnelAlberto De Paoli, currently responsible for the “Rest of the World” division, is about to leave Enel after years of a prominent role, holding the position of CFO and head of administration, finance and control during Francesco Starace's mandate, as written Milano Finanza. He now seems intent on dedicating himself to entrepreneurial projects, and his place will be taken by Roberto Deambrogio. The news had already circulated in the summer, but De Paoli's exit was delayed at Cattaneo's request. De Paoli's exit is part of a series of significant changes in the group's top lines after Cattaneo's arrival, including the transfers of Gianni Vittorio Armani from Iren, to lead global networks, and Francesco Puntillo as head of the legal department, taking over from Giulio Fazio. In 2023, key figures such as Francesca Di Carlo, Simone Mori, Ernesto Ciorra, Elisabetta Ripa and Francesco Venturini also left Enel, the latter replaced by Francesca Gostinelli, the financial newspaper recalls. Five Italian consumer associations have filed a class action lawsuit against Enel in Rome, accusing the country's largest utility of failing to adequately inform customers about significant increases in gas and electricity prices.
stellantis. After the slump (-6,3%) on Monday due to the resignation of CEO Carlos Tavares, Stellantis on Tuesday 3rd at Piazza Affari got away with a small rebound: +1,6% to 11,93 euros, with the stock remaining at two-year lows and having lost almost 45% since the beginning of the year. Minister Urso is open to Elkann, who however will not go to Parliament for now. John Elkann intends to nominate Luca Master, Apple's outgoing CFO as the Italian-French automaker's new CEO, according to reports Corriere della SeraThe carmaker denied in a statement press rumors about the amount of severance pay that would be paid to Carlos Tavares, who suddenly resigned from his position as CEO on Sunday.
Leonardo . Italy is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine in a renewed show of support for Kiev by Giorgia Meloni's government, two sources familiar with the matter said.
Campari Deutsche Bank cuts to Hold. This morning the company announced that Simon Hunt will be its new CEO.
