La Fed yesterday it didn't move on rates, as expected, but left the door open to reductions during the year after having revised the lowers its estimates for US GDP and to the rI raise the inflation ones. Wall Street closed moderately positive and US futures continued to rise after an interview with ceo of nvidia. But the index of the Magnificent Seven is at critical technical levels. Today it's the turn of Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank announce their decision on rates. In Asia, Tencent's sharp decline and Samsung's rise are to be noted, while Japan is closed for holidays. European stock markets are seen opening around parity. Eyes on Nexi, A2a
Wall Street up after Fed leaves window open for rate cut
Le US shares recorded a rise yesterday after the Federal Reserve left the benchmark interest rate unchanged, in the range of 4,25%-4,50%, but hinted that it would cut rates by half a percentage point by the end of the year. The next likely window for the Fed to lower rates will be May or later. The path for the years to come is also confirmed: 3,25-3,75% at the end of 2026, 3-3,25% at the end of 2027 and 3% in the medium term.
After the announcement, the Fed chairman Jerome Powell, answering the journalists, acknowledged that inflation is still high and that uncertainties persist related to the economic policy changes including huge tariffs on imports, but reassured that theeconomy remains strong and job market is solid.
The Fed board also revised downwards growth forecasts of the GDP for this year at 1,7% from 2,1% in December, for 2026 (1,8% against 2%) and for 2027 (1,8% against 1,9%). On the contrary, inflation PCE is expected to increase in 2025 (2,7% vs 2,5%) and 2026 (2,2% vs 2,1), but the forecast has been maintained at 2% for 2027. Furthermore, the unemployment rate is estimated to increase slightly this year to 4,4% (versus 4,3%), but the projection was held steady at 4,3% for both 2026 and 2027. The FOMC also decided to slow down to a maximum of 5 billion, from the previous 25 billion, the Treasuries only refunds (in concrete terms, the non-reinvested portion) while agency bonds and asset-backed securities remain at 35 billion.
A few hours after the rate announcement, Trump he wanted to intervene on the Fed policy, stating that the central bank he'd do better to cut rates “as US tariffs begin to impact the economy.”
Following the announcement, all three major US stock indexes rose until the close: the Dow Jones rose 0,92% to 41.964,63 points, the S&P 500 gained 1,08% to 5.675,29 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1,41% to 17.750,79. The'Index of the Magnificent Seven is still down -15% since the beginning of the year and has just highlighted a bearish signal on the chart to take into account: for the first time in three years the 50-day moving average (26.351) has violated the 100-day moving average (26.444) downwards, says Intermone.
During the night, the Wall Street futures have turned positive as a result of what the Financial Times on the colossal spending plans of Nvidia: the managing director Jensen Huang told the newspaper that the company has allocated hundreds of billions of dollars to buy chips and other electronic components made in the United States. “Overall, over the next four years, we will probably buy half a trillion dollars of electronics in total.” Huang denied rumors that he was part of a consortium of companies looking to invest in Intel. The CEO previously told a group of investors that concerns about the impact of DeepSeek were overblown.
Today it's the turn of the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank
With the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting now over, the spotlight is now on central banks across the Atlantic: the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank are all expected to announce their rate decisions today.
La BoE, center stage, is expected to keep rates unchanged as it monitors the economic impact of US President Donald Trump's wave of tariffs and the UK government's upcoming tax hike for employers. With inflation In the UK stubbornly stuck above its 2% target, the BoE has cut funding costs to a lesser extent compared to the ECB and the Fed since last summer, contributing to the country's slow growth rate.
Also the riksbank is expected to keep rates on hold today, while economists predict that the Swiss National Bank to cut its main policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point and will keep it there until at least 2026.
Trump and Zelensky Want to Work Together to End the War
Also the geopolitics continued to be the focus of investors' attention.
The Israeli military said it intercepted a missile launched from Yemen this morning, while the hostilities with the Houthis intensified. Trump he threatened to punish Iran for his alleged support for the Yemeni militant group.
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has pushed up the prices of Petroleum today, with Brent crude futures up 0,54% to $71,16 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0,54% to $67,52 a barrel. But gains were limited by the prospect of a return of Russian supplies on the market, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky He said it would be possible to quickly end energy attacks in the war with Russia. Trump and Zelensky agreed to work together to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, in what the White House described as a “fantastic” hour-long phone call.
International investors are also looking at Turkey after President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival was arrested in what the main opposition party called "a coup against our next president", hitting Turkish stocks hard and sending the lira tumbling as much as 14,5% against the dollar, before recovering some of its losses
China Down and Japan Closed for Holidays. Keep an Eye on Tencent and Samsung
Stocks in Asia are mixed, with China falling and Japan closed for holidays. The index Hang Seng of Hong Kong is at -1,7%, CSI 300 of the stock markets Shanghai and Shenzhen -0,8%. Tencent, listed in Hong Kong has lost up to -4% despite a solid fourth-quarter revenue increase. Profit rose more than expected thanks to strong online advertising results. Traders attributed the decline to the company’s talk of AI spending plans, which promised less than analysts had expected. Xin-Yao Ng of Aberdeen Investments said: “I think the company is solid, but it lacks a benchmark in AI, compared to Alibaba, which is going all out.” Samsung Electronics, the memory giant is in increase of almost 3% after signaling its commitment to strengthening its position in the high-bandwidth chip market. Jun Young-hyun, the head of the chip business, said Samsung plans to ship improved 3-layer HBM12E memory as early as the second quarter of this year and aims to produce ultra-advanced HBM4 chips in the second half. Jun acknowledged that Samsung's failure to secure an early lead in the HBM market has contributed to it losing ground to rival SK Hynix, but the mistakes of the past will not be repeated.
“There is a possibility that it is just profit taking after a massive rally. The market may have priced in all the positive news on DeepSeek and stimulus, and now it needs real economic improvement and corporate profits to move beyond that,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis.
Beijing today announced that it kept benchmark lending interest rates stable for the fifth consecutive month, in line with market expectations. yuan, which has been pressured by China's wide yield differentials with the United States, fell 0,06% to 7,2354 per dollar in the onshore market. Its offshore counterpart fell 0,1% to 7,2383 per dollar.
The Taiex stock exchange index Taipei closed up 1,90% on the back of a push from semiconductor companies. The Kospi Alone earn 0,4%.
The bag of the'India opened higher, BSE Sensex index +0,5%. Sydney's S&P ASX200 index closed in positive territory: +1,1%. Indonesia's stock market continues to rebound, after the collapse at the beginning of the week.
Yesterday evening the Bovespa index of the Sao Paulo stock exchange Brazil closed up 0,7%. The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Brazil, the Copom, raised the reference interest rate (Selic) by 100 basis points, from 13,25% to 14,25% per year.
Their hit another all-time high of $3.057,21 an ounce, buoyed by the prospect of further monetary easing by the Fed this year. The dollar weakened further, showing a decline of 0,18% against the yen, settling at 148,40, while the euro is not far from its five-month high of $1,0893. The GBP hit a four-month high of $1,3015 early in the session ahead of the BoE decision.
European stocks seen opening at parity. The EU takes stock of RearmEu
Stocks in Europe looked set to open around parity, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures down 0,07%. The FTSEMIB index on Piazza Affari is recovering from its 2007 highs set on Wednesday evening: FTSE futures are down 0,15%.
The two-day event that brings together the European leaders in Brussels to take stock of the program in particular RearmEU presented earlier this month by Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen. Brussels is expected to provide further details to understand how increase public spending to dedicate to defense. In case Italy, an increase from the current 1,5% of gross domestic product to the target of 3% would imply an additional 30-35 billion euros to be financed over four years. The EU Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja kallas – according to a document seen by Reuters – intends to propose to the EU summit an allocation of ammunition worth approximately 5 billion euros.
A2A. Today's Board of Directors meeting on the budget after the preliminary results published on February 20th. Conference call to follow (16,30:XNUMX p.m.).
Enel Bernstein raised the target from 8,10 to 8,30 euros.
Eni The Prato Public Prosecutor's Office has sent notices of investigation to seven employees of the group and two employees of the contractor Sergen for the explosion on December 9th at the Eni depot in Calenzano, on the outskirts of Florence, in which five people died.
Moncler Citi raised its target price from 63 to 71 euros.
nexi The US investment fund Tpg has reportedly presented an offer of around 850 million for the Digital Banking Solutions division, which includes the National Interbank Network and other infrastructures for institutional clients, Corriere della Sera writes, citing rumors. The fund would be willing to involve Cassa Depositi e Prestiti in the proposal to protect national interests, the newspaper adds.
Saipem Morgan Stanley has reduced its target price from 3,35 to 3,30 euros.
Snam It closed 2024 with record investments and significant growth in adjusted EBITDA and net profit, confirming its financial targets for 2025.
STM Maurizio Tamagnini has resigned from the supervisory board, of which he had been vice president since 2023, with immediate effect. The decision by Tamagnini, appointed by Cdp (which holds 27,5% of Stm), highlights the disappointment of the Mef regarding the management of CEO Jean Marc Chery.
Stellantis The process of selecting a new CEO is on schedule and an announcement will be made in the first half of this year, Chairman John Elkann said. Elkann also said 2025 will be another difficult year, but 2026 is expected to see increased production in Italy with 10 new product upgrades.
Brembo Deutsche Bank cuts rating to Hold, target at 10 euros.
From Nora Kepler-Cheuvreux cut Hold's rating.
