The tone of the markets remains cautiously positive, but in a climate of alert and anticipation of the key date of April 2nd which will trigger the duties imposed by POTUS, as the President of the United States is called. In the last few hours, some hopes have grown among investors for a softening and flexibility of the tariffs, including some relief for some. Yesterday, Trump confirmed that they will not be the same for everyone but there will not be "too many exceptions". In the meantime, a second team of European negotiators and in the next few hours there should be meetings with the top of the US administration. But the fact that Trump has renamed that date “Liberation Day” raises the suspicion that he will want to surprise with some fireworks, as he did with the reciprocal duties on Venezuela yesterday.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the focus is on the Germany which, having brought home a historic vote that will allow it to release hundreds of billions of euros in defense and infrastructure spending financed by debt, is now grappling with the government formation and with Merz having to win over the skeptics conservative Germans. This morning the former president of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi stressed that Germany’s decision to increase defense spending was a “game changer,” but warned that there were risks in how it would be implemented.
At the moment the markets do not seem to be reacting to the developments in the peace negotiations in UkraineThe United States reached separate deals with Ukraine and Russia yesterday to suspend their attacks at sea and on energy targets, with Washington agreeing to push for the lifting of some sanctions against Moscow.
Draghi: Germany's move is a 'historic turning point'
The extent of the commitment of the Germany and constitutional changes which it entailed are among the reasons why the move marks a turning, Draghi told Joumanna Bercetche of Bloomberg Television during a debate at the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong today. What worries the former Italian prime minister is the way in which the European Commission manages the policy shift. “If it is not managed properly, what happens is that Germany will rearm but the others will not,” Draghi said.
The measures adopted by Germany, which cleared the final legislative hurdle last week, put an end to decades of German austerity and inaugurate a new period of deficit spending designed to boost Europe's biggest economy and modernise creaking infrastructure. German leaders were forced to act after Donald Trump backed away from US commitments to European security, laying bare the growing threat to the region from President Vladimir Putin's Russia.
The US president's actions have forced the hand of European policymakers, Draghi said, adding that one of the consequences was "essentially to tell us 'you have no more time.'" The message, according to Draghi, was that "either you proceed to defend yourself or you are defenseless”. “Now, being defenseless in this new climate is not very pleasant, because we have an enemy, which is Russia,” he said.
Wall Street little changed. Apple, Amazon and Tesla shine
Wall Street is substantially stable, closing the session at the levels of the day before with the Dow Jones stopping at 42.588 points; on the same line, the S&P-500 closes the day without particular shocks, stopping at 5.777 points. The Nasdaq 100 is slightly positive (+0,53%); as is the S&P 100 (+0,29%) in fractional progress.
Worth noting among the Wall Street giants were Walt Disney (+1,43%), Apple (+1,37%), JP Morgan (+1,24%) and Amazon (+1,21%). Among the best performers on the Nasdaq 100 were Trade Desk (+4,48%), Tesla Motors (+3,45%),
Asia, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs focus on China
Asia Pacific stocks are mostly up. Uncertainty dominates here too as we wait for clarity on Trump's trade policy. On the one hand, there is anticipation of softer measures, but on the other, they fear new targeted actions, as Trump did yesterday with the directive for secondary tariffs of 25% on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela.
The strategists of Morgan Stanley have again improved their outlook on the stocks of Chinese companies, for the second time in just over a month. “The MSCI China is finally on track,” they said, “and looks set to beat earnings forecasts for the first time after 13 consecutive quarterly losses,” Laura Wang and Jonathan Garner wrote in a note released tonight. “China deserves a valuation on par with the MSCI Emerging Markets, and the long-standing discount needs to be narrowed,” they added.
He thinks so too Goldman Sachs. Kinger Lau and Timothy Moe wrote in a note that “China is back” on investors’ radar and there is room for its rally to expand further. Strategists became even more bullish after meeting with investors in Asia, the United States and Europe. The MSCI China valuation discount to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has narrowed to 6% from around 15% at the start of this year.
Tokyo Stock Exchange rises with index Nikkei at +0,8%. The yen weakens against the dollar and the cross returns above the 150 level, approximately the highs of the last three weeks. The yield rate on the ten-year government bond is instead close to the very long-term highs (2009). Governor of the Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will continue to raise rates of interest if the economy and prices perform in line with its projections.
The bag of Hong Kong recovers at the end, Hang Seng +0,5%. The CSI 300 index of the stock markets moves around parity Shanghai and Shenzhen and the Taiex index of Taipei.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, more simply known as Catl, he heads towards Listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, after the one on the Shenzhen stock exchanges: the global giant of e-car batteries has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to issue up to about 220 million shares, according to a statement. The Ningde, Fujian-based group could raise at least $5 billion from the public offering, which could be the largest since TikTok's Chinese rival Kuaishou raised $5,32 billion in early 2021. CATL is facing difficulties, analysts say, with 2024 revenues down. CATL counts Tesla, Volkswagen, Li Auto and NIO among its customers and has a 45% market share in China
CK is up +2,5% on the Hong Kong stock exchange Hutchison. The logistics and services holding company has decided to proceed with the sale of its operations in the two ports of Panama to a group of American investors led by BlackRock, Bloomberg writes this morning. The agency reports that the opposition of the Beijing authorities to the operation has not stopped the negotiations, which are currently well underway and not too far from the expected conclusion: April 2. The sale, if completed, will earn the company 19 billion dollars in cash.
Elsewhere, Asia Pacific stocks are rising South Korea and Singapore: Seoul's Kospi +1%, Straits Times Index +0,5%. Stock market bounces again today of Indonesia, Jakarta Composite Index +3
It settles down dollar after the appreciations of the last few days and the rush of stops BitcoinRaw materials moved little with the exception of copper: the reference future for the United States market is at prices never seen before in history.
European stock markets: Piazza Affari eyes on Prysmian and Tim
European stock markets set to open slightly rising, Eurostoxx 50 futures +0,1%.
Fabio Panetta, Governor of the Bank of Italy and member of the Governing Council of the ECB, wrote in a letter to the Financial Times that the European Central Bank must be pragmatic and data-oriented in setting interest rates.
Prysmian has approved the 2025-2028 Strategic Plan with a gross operating margin of between 2,95 and 3,15 billion euros at the end of the period. This compares with 1,93 billion in 2024. Total cash generation is expected to be “around 5 billion euros” after reaching a share of between 1,5 and 1,7 billion euros in the last year. The group, active in the production of electrical and TLC cables, expects average annual growth in earnings per share of between 15 and 19%. As for revenues, 55% will be generated by the supply of complete solutions, currently at 28%. In this way, the group continues to pursue its goal of going beyond the simple supply of products. The forecasts include the contribution of the acquisition announced yesterday of Channel which will be equal to 150 million euros in adjusted gross operating margin in 2028.
Team: Poste could increase its stake to 25% by paying only a small premium. Poste Italiane has what it takes to become Tim's industrial and financial partner, taking Vivendi's place as the telephone group's reference shareholder. This was stated by Undersecretary of the Treasury Federico Freni to those who asked him whether Poste could purchase Vivendi's stake in Tim. The press reports that Poste could purchase 15% of Tim from Vivendi with a small premium, to reach a stake of just under 25% from the current 10%.
Banco BPM The consultation agreement between pension funds and foundations, which represent 6,51% of the capital, renewed its committee today, confirming its consensus for the bank's standalone growth plan.
Pirelli. The board of directors meets today. The conflict between Sinochem and management continues.
Terna. It closes 2024 with a group net profit of 1.061,9 million euros, up 19,9% compared to the same period in 2023 on revenues up 15,5% to 3,680 billion. In the five-year plan to 2028, investments will rise to a total of 17,7 billion (+7%, equal to 1,2 billion more in the same time frame). Moody's and S&P have confirmed the rating, Baa2 and BBB+ respectively, with a stable outlook.
Banca Mediolanum. Deutsche Bank raises target from 13,1 to 16,9 euros and strengthens BUY.
Saipem. Moody's raises rating to Ba1 with positive outlook
