Taurus is still alive and well, despite everything. The week of rate hikes in Europe, accompanied by the possible stop in gas supplies and, above all, by the threat of a crisis in the dark in Italy, opens with Eurostoxx futures up by half a point (+0,5%). They also go up Wall Street futures: that of the S&P500 index is positive by 0,6%. The index Bloomberg Commodities, down for the past five weeks, is up 0,8% this morning. Movements of little significance for bonds, also because the financial market of Japan is closed today for holidays.
Try restarting the Chinese dragon (index CSi 300 +1,1%), debilitated by the long crisis of the banks triggered by the default of the real estate giants, so far averted only to the detriment of shareholders and owners. The sub-index of banks rebounds after nine sessions of decline, having lost almost eight percent last week. On Saturday, a newspaper close to the Beijing authorities wrote that the credit and insurance regulator has ordered banks and companies that have lent money to real estate developers to keep the credit taps open until the buildings and constructions are completed. come to an end, so you don't leave buyers homeless.
Chinese tech takes off. L'Hang Seng Tech is up by almost 3%: all thirty components of this index are up.
Il Kospi of Seoul is up 1,7%. The South Korean won it appreciates against the dollar: cross +0,8%.
In New Zealand, inflation has reached levels not seen for thirty-two years: +7,3% in the quarter ended in June.
Modest increases for the Petroleum: Wti +0,3%, at $98, and Brent at $102. L'euro trades at 1,009, +0,1%. Treasury Notes at ten years to 2,91%. The BTP it closed Friday night at 3,25%. spread widening to 212 basis points.
Dividends at Piazza Affari
A Business Square today the detachment of the second tranche of the Eni dividend: 0,19 euro which, added to the advance paid in January, is equivalent to a yield of 7,6%.
They pay the dividend too Iren e Gas Plus. The capital increase of Landi Renzo, owned by Tip, is under way.
ECB between rates and anti-spread shield
The week will be dominated by a series of high-tension matches to be played on the Rome-Frankfurt axis. The first, i.e. whether or not Mario Draghi (today in Algiers) will stay at Palazzo Chigi, is at the center of the thoughts of international operators, who for now have reacted yes with some fibrillation, but without causing the spread to soar, in the belief that the outcome of the government crisis is still open. However, the "extra time" (definition by Minister Giorgetti) will end before Thursday, when the ECB meeting who will decide the first rate hike in Europe after the long season of QE.
The focus will be on the spread shield promised by Christine Lagarde to combat the risk of fragmentation. The plan will provide ample flexibility in the reinvestment of maturing securities purchased with the anti-pandemic program, without a cap on purchases, to "have credibility in the eyes of the markets". Hopefully it is enough to announce it for it to take effect, without ever needing a use. But the credibility of the operation is also linked to the Roman events. The hawks ask themselves: what guarantees can Italy give, once again at the mercy of its problems?
Gas from Russia
In the middle of the week we will understand even if the Russia plans to reopen the gas cock, once North Stream maintenance is complete. As early as Wednesday, the EU Commission will reveal its energy emergency plan to overcome dependence on Moscow over time.
Fed to hike rates by 0,75%
Even beyond the European arena, attention remains focused on central banks. The bankers of the are silent Fed, in press silence before the summit of 26/27 July, but the latest indications are almost certain a rate hike of 75 points, while the hypothesis of a higher increase seems to be discarded: the hope of a drop in energy prices, a possible consequence of Joe Biden's mission in the Middle East, is decisive. To follow the statistics on home sales and consumer confidence (at 25-year lows).
The Bank of Japan dilemma
Spotlight also on the meeting of the Bank of Japan, the first after the assassination attempt on Shinzo Abe, the father of the sub-zero interest rate policy that only Tokyo continues to practice despite pressure from Washington. The Bank of Japan is likely to revise its inflation forecasts upwards for the year on Wednesday; the Japanese central bank probably won't raise short-term interest rates, but it could be forced to revise its yield range upwards.
US quarterly: BofA, Goldman, Tesla and Netflix are coming soon
The campaign of US quarterly. Today it's up to Bank of America e Goldman Sachs. Among the most anticipated numbers are those of Tesla and, above all, of Netflix, which announced the agreement with Microsoft for the launch of a low cost service: lower subscriptions, but the inclusion of advertising in the schedule.
