The service sector goes into contraction in Euroland; the OECD cuts its forecasts for Italy, France and Germany; Paris is in a serious political crisis and Berlin will soon go to elections, yet the markets continue to grind out gains despite this or, in part, precisely because of this. The hope in fact is that the ECB put your hand on your heart at this month's meeting and cut rates again, even if Christine Lagard, at the European Parliament, today he reiterated: we will decide next week, “we do not commit ourselves in advance to a particular rate path”, even if “growth is weak” in the short term.
So even today the Bags of the region close a session in progress and Frankfurt (+1,1%) updates its highs to 20.255 basis points, while Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel calls on the German government to soften its strict spending rules, warning that Europe's largest economy faces a "complicated" and "weak" outlook.
Business Square file in gains at the end, but still rises by 0,75% and finds the 34 thousand basis points (34.083), thanks first of all to Campari +4,32%, with the market toasting the Appointment of new CEO, Simon Hunt starting from next January 15th in place of Matteo Fantacchiotti, who left for personal reasons last September 18th. Investors also remain focused on the banking sector and have bought up shares today Ps, +2,58%, following the news, which emerged yesterday, that Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone has risen above 5% of the capitalThe entrepreneur had already purchased 3,6% during the last placement of the Mef on November 13.
Paris marks +0,66%, with Madrid +0,53% and Amsterdam +0,19%. On the other hand, there is a slight decrease London -0,27%.
Wall Street Positive Despite Shocking Murder of UnitedHealth CEO
The Wall Street is buoyant (DJ +0,5%, S&P 500 +0,4%, Nasdaq +0,97%) and the indexes are moving upwards at the end of the morning after the records of the day before, even though Brian Thompson, CEO of United health and the killer is still on the run. The title of the American insurance giant appreciates by 0,57%. The macro picture on the other hand favors a soft approach by the Fed and investors seem confident waiting for Jerome Powell to speak this evening.
Sharp contraction in services in the euro area; single currency slightly up
The macro page today was rich and highlighted an increasingly “poor” Eurozone. The PMI index of the sector in November fell below 50 points, the line below which there is a contraction: 49,5 points against 51,6 in October and below the forecast of 49,2. The composite PMI index that also takes manufacturing into account thus goes to 48,3 points, against the previous 50. The sector, supported by the long wave of the Olympics, went down in France last month: 46,9 from 49,2 in October.
The single currency area also received a cold shower from theOECD, which has lowered its growth forecasts for Italy, Germany and France. The country's GDP is expected to grow by 0,5% in 2024 and 0,9% in 2025, down from the previous Interim Economic Outlook published in September, which was +0,8% and +1,1%. Paris and Berlin are expected to post growth of 0,9% and 0,7% respectively next year, down 0,3 points from the September forecast.
In the US the highly anticipated job data today reached the second stage, slightly disappointing. According to the monthly report compiled by ADP, an agency that prepares payrolls, 146.000 jobs were created in November compared to the previous month, while the forecast was for 163.000 jobs. The figure for October was revised from 233.000 to 184.000. As a result, according to the FedWatch of the CME Group, there is now a 76% chance (against 72,9% yesterday) that the Fed will decide on a 25 basis point cut at the meeting scheduled for two weeks.
US service sector activity remained expanding in November, albeit slightly below estimates (56,1 versus expectations of 57).
In this context theeuro tmakes another small recovery against the dollar and is trading up about 0,2%, just above 1,05.
Piazza Affari, banks in the crosshairs and attention to the Berlusconi galaxy
The banking sector remains in the spotlight on Piazza Affari, in the prospect of new aggregations. It is confirmed in money People of Sondrio, of 2,54%, which could find its natural bride in Bper +0,28%, with the shareholder of both banks, Unipol +2,35%, which remains in the spotlight. Among the big names, it shines Understanding + 1,36%.
Well luxury today with Moncler +2,22%, while managed savings are in the spotlight with Finecobank +2,036% and Banca Mediolanum +1,72%. Also in the top ten of the day Telecom +1,79%. The oil sector is also buoyant today Saipem, +1,68%, while falling back Tenaris -0,22% and utilities are weak.
stellantis recovers a further 1,31%, after a surge in the morning when the news spread, later denied, that Apple manager Luca Maestri would replace CEO Carlo Tavares.
Outside the main basket, former stocks closed a brilliant session Mediaset (Mfe A +2,65% and Mfe B +2,51%), on the hypothesis of a forthcoming Opa on ProsiebenSat.1 (+12,46% in Frankfurt). According to press leaks, the Berlusconi family company has given Unicredit the mandate to lead a pool of banks to receive financing of almost 3,4 billion euros. At the moment Mfe, the main shareholder of ProSiebenSat1, holds a stake of 28,87%.
Spreads down
The session is largely positive on the secondary market, where the spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration falls to 116 basis points. Yields also fall, to 3,21% and 2,05% respectively.
The expectation of a dovish ECB is also favoring a slight recovery in French paper, which sees the spread at 84 basis points and a 2,89-year OAT rate at XNUMX%.
