La hope for a thaw in the relationships between United States and China offers support to the markets today, even if a certain amount seems to dominate skepticism about concrete results in the short term: last night US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer they announced that they will meet the Chinese economic czar next Saturday in Geneva He Lifeng for talks that could represent the first step toward resolving a trade war that is roiling the global economy. News of the meeting sent U.S. stock index futures higher, while Asian stocks also rose cautiously, benefiting from themonetary easing in China. Meanwhile, we await the end of the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve, which does not foresee any changes in economic policy, but markets will try to assess the sensitivity of policymakers to employment and inflation. Asian currencies have weakened after several sessions of gains against the US dollar. The escalation of geopolitical tensions is observed with concern: in Middle Eastin Ukraine e tra India and Pakistan. Oil and Bitcoin on the rise, the shots are taken profit taking on gold. Business Square focus on Generali, Leonardo and a flurry of quarterly accounts.
Evidence of agreements: Washington with Beijing and Canada. UK with India
Washington and Beijing are locked in a cat-and-mouse game over tariffs, with both sides showing no signs of backing down in a trade war that has roiled global markets and disrupted supply chains. The office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the Treasury said Greer and Bessent will travel together to Geneva as early as tomorrow and will also meet with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter to discuss trade negotiations between them. “My sense is that this will be a de-escalation,” Bessent told “The Ingraham Angle” on Fox News Channel after the announcement. After the US announcement, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed that China had agreed to meet with US envoys: "After carefully weighing global expectations, China's interests, and the demands of US industry and consumers, China has decided to resume contact with the US," the Chinese statement read. "I look forward to productive discussions as we work to rebalance the international economic system to better serve US interests," he said. Besent in a previous statement regarding a congressional hearing. He then added that the ones in Switzerland will only be initial discussions: “On Saturday and Sunday we will agree on what to talk about.”
The two sides are expected to discuss broader tariff reductions, two sources familiar with the planning told Reuters. The negotiating teams are also expected to discuss eliminating tariffs on specific products, U.S. de minimis policies and the U.S. export control list, the sources said.
Meanwhile yesterday Britain and India they concluded a free trade pact long-sought after U.S. tariff turmoil forced them to accelerate efforts to boost their trade in whiskey, cars and food products.
With regard to Canada, Donald Trump, told Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House that “We don’t have to sign agreements. We could sign 25 right now if we wanted to. We’ll sign some. But much more than that is we’re going to reduce the price that people have to pay to buy things in the United States.” It was the first meeting between the two leaders since Carney won a shock election on an anti-Trump platform. Carney rejected Trump’s calls to absorb Canada into the United States, saying “it’s not for sale, it’s not for sale, ever.”
Wall Street closes lower. Bonds do well
Following the announcement of a possible thaw in trade, futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by around 1%, while the session on Wall Street had closed in decline: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0,95% to 40.829,00, theS & P 500 fell 0,77% to 5.606,91, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 154,58 points, or 0,87 percent, to 17.689,66.
With regard to bonds, U.S. Treasury bond prices rose as an auction The 10-year benchmark's welcome move suggested that demand for U.S. Treasuries remained intact, also boosting other maturities along the curve. The yield on U.S. benchmark bonds at 10 years fell 3,5 basis points to 4,308% yesterday, from 4,343% on Monday evening, while the yield on fixed income bonds 30 years fell 1,8 basis points to 4,8112%. The yield on bonds 2 years old, which usually moves in line with Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, fell 4,6 basis points to 3,795%, from 3,841% late Monday.
Asia benefits from trade thaw and monetary easing in China
News of a possible thaw between Washington and Beijing has supported stock markets in Asia. On the Hong Kong stock exchange, the index Hang Seng earns 0,5%. CSI 300 of the price lists of Shanghai and Shenzhen +0,5%. On parity the stock of Taipei.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank of China (Pboc) announced a series of tonight new monetary policy measuresThe main one is the 0,5% cut in the compulsory reserve ratio of banks and financial companies: the measure translates into a liquidity injection long-term of about 1.000 billion yuan (140 billion US dollars). The second decision is the interest rate reduction benchmark of 0,1%. Governor Pan Gongsheng also cited a 0,25% cut in individual lending rates from the Housing Provident Fund, with the rate for five-year first-time home loans reduced from 5% to 2,85%.
In Japan, when returning from holidays, Tokyo stock exchange is little moved and the yen weakens after three consecutive sessions of appreciation against the dollar. South Korean stocks rise: Kospi index of Alone + 0,3%.
The worst conflict in the last two decades is being closely followed India and Pakistan. India has conducted targeted military strikes against Pakistan in recent hours, which said it had shot down five Indian jets in retaliation. In a statement late on Tuesday, the government in Delhi said it had given a “detailed and restrained response” that was “designed to be non-provocative in nature.” India said it had only targeted “known terrorist camps” and had not hit any Pakistani civilian, economic or military targets, a claim Pakistan disputes. Mumbai Stock Exchange is about equality. The Indian Rupee weakened slightly against the dollar.
European stock markets seen positively. At Piazza Affari focus on Leonardo, Generali and a flurry of data
Le European stock exchanges are expected to open slightly higher based on the +0,02% on the Eurostoxx50 future. During the day, the accounts of Banco Bpm, Bper Banca, Italgas, Tim, Ariston are expected. Also to be followed are the data of the Norwegian Novo Nordisk.
Germany. Industrial orders in Germany increased more than expected in March. According to the German National Statistical Office Destatis, orders increased by 3,6% on a monthly basis after a flat month in the previous month. Analysts had expected a rise of 1,4%. Compared to the same month of the previous year, orders rose by 3,8% after a previous -0,2%.
Leonardo has formalized the establishment of the new Aeronautics division that will be led by Stefano Bortoli as managing director. This was announced in a note. The operation "aims to strengthen the competitive positioning of Leonardo's aeronautical sector in both the military and civil sectors, in line with what is foreseen in the development path of Leonardo's industrial plan launched in March 2024".
Generali. Anticipation for the board of directors, which today will have on its agenda both the nomination of the six internal committees and an initial discussion on the takeover bid launched by Mediobanca on Banca Generali with underlying shares of the Lion (i.e. the 13% controlled by Piazzetta Cuccia). Intesa Sanpaolo. After the publication of the quarterly results yesterday, the CEO, Carlo Messina, said that he does not see value in participating in the current phase of banking M&A which is already particularly crowded.
Banca Popolare di Sondrio closed the first quarter with a net profit of 173,3 million euros, up 19,3% on the year, supported by the growth of the interest margin and commissions that more than offset the decline in trading and higher operating costs. The board of directors appointed Pierluigi Molla as president of the credit institution.
Finecobank closed the first quarter with revenues of 329,3 million, +0,7% year-on-year, thanks to the growth of Investing (+11,3%, favored by the volume effect and the greater contribution of Fineco Asset Management) and Brokerage (+21,7%, thanks to the expansion of the active investor base and the increase in market volumes), which offset the decline in the financial margin (-10,8%). Net profit increased by 11,7% to 164,2 million.
Lottomatica. Profit up to 94,747 million euros compared to 49,661 million in the same period of 2024. Revenues were 585,7 million in the first quarter (+33%) and adjusted EBITDA reached 220,5 million (+47%).
Mfe. The extraordinary general meeting on the takeover bid for ProSiebenSat.1 and the related capital increase is held in Amsterdam. The Czech investment group Ppf has not yet seen the offer and will decide on its course of action later.
Ferrari will begin rolling out its first fully electric car next October, in a three-phase process, the CEO said after the results were released.
Intesa Sanpaolo sees no value in participating in the current crowded banking M&A phase, CEO Carlo Messina said after the quarterly results were released. JP Morgan cuts target price, Deutsche Bank raises.
Italgas closes the first quarter with an EBITDA of 399,7 million euros, +22,7%.
