While the markets are trying to digest the victory of Donald Trump at the White House, whose certainty came faster than expected, today will be the central banks dominate the scene: the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Swedish Riksbank and the Norwegian central bank will all announce their rate decisions. But the spotlight will also be on the Government crisis that is being consumed in Germany, split on the budget issue after yesterday's ousting of Finance Minister Lindner. Meanwhile, the China, to prevent the increase in duties promised by Trump, has begun to quickly sell off its commercial stocks to international markets, but above all in Russia. Wall Street closes at new records, yields rise US Treasuries and the dollar.
Central Banks in Action: Fed, BoE, Riksbank, Norges Bank. Schnabel Speaks
The most closely watched today will be the Federal Reserve, which is expected to decide on a quarter-point rate cut. But investors will be curious to hear what Chairman Jerome Powell will say about the risks of higher inflation from Trump's proposed tariffs and immigration policies.
Also the BoE is poised to cut by a quarter point, but markets are once again looking for clues as to the extent to which policymakers expect the government's new budget to fuel price pressures. Most analysts expect the riksbank will cut the titles by half a point, while the Norges Bank should remain on hold.
Even many officials of the European Central Bank are operational today, including the monetary policy hawk Isabel Schnabel, which in recent statements has argued against rushing further rate cuts.
Wall Street hits new records, Treasury yields and dollar rise
Euphoric session yesterday for wall street, that reaches new records after Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections, with the Dow Jones which shows a 3,57% jump at the close. Along the same lines, theS&P-500, which reaches 5.929 points (+2,53%). The Nasdaq 100 (+2,74%) and the S&P 100 (+2,63%). The index is doing best of all Russell 2000 (+5,84%), which tracks 2000 small-cap US stocks, which are expected to benefit from the Republican candidate's conquest of the White House. But a strong movement in response to Trump is also visible on Treasury yields and on dollar. Ecosystem's staff is greenback runs against major currencies.
Among raw material, the prices of Petroleum rise only slightly after the sell-off triggered by the US election. Risks to oil supplies from a Trump presidency and the hurricane approaching the Gulf region outweighed the strengthening dollar and rising US inventories. Brent crude futures rose 0,15% to $75,03 a barrel. The price Of their fell 0,18% to $2.671 an ounce, extending the previous session's sharp losses (-3%) on the back of the dollar and risk assets rally and profit-taking, after hitting a new all-time high in the run-up to the election.
China rushes to dump stockpiles amid fears of tariffs
Caution prevails in Tokyo, with the Nikkei 225 which ends the session with a drop of 0,25%, while, on the contrary, a leap of Shenzhen, which continues the day at 2,37%, and of Shanghai, up 2,55%. Investors are looking to further stimulus measures in China.
Worth noting are Chinese exports which grew at the fastest pace in two years in October, as businesses poured in stocks in the main export markets in anticipation of further tariffs by the United States and XNUMX-XNUMX business days.
With Donald Trump elected as the next US president, his pre-election promise to impose tariffs on Chinese imports of more than 60% is likely to spur a shift in stocks. There is nervousness about Trump's tariff threat among Chinese businessmen and officials, with about $500 billion of annual shipments at stake, as trade tensions have escalated with the EU, which received $466 billion of Chinese goods last year. Customs data released today showed that outbound shipments from China rose 12,7% year-on-year last month, beating the 5,2% increase forecast in a Reuters poll of economists and a 2,4% rise in September. cheap imports fell 2,3%, compared with expectations for a 1,5% decline, turning negative for the first time in four months.
Chinese exports in particular towards Russia rose 24,4% in October from a year earlier, the fastest pace since November last year, Chinese customs data showed Thursday, as Beijing confirmed strong ties with Moscow. The increase was higher than the 15,7% increase in September. However, China's imports from Russia fell 4,3% last month from a year earlier, down from a 9,2% decline in September, as payment problems disrupted trade transactions.
Germany: Political crisis after Finance Minister's exit yesterday
The German political situation is expected to become clearer today, after Friedrich Merz, leader of the opposition conservatives, holds a press conference to respond to the chancellor's call for support. Olaf Scholz for the approval of the budget and the increase in military spending. This comes a day after Scholz fired the Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), following long-standing disputes over the budget, causing the collapse of the coalition of a three-party government (the so-called traffic light) and preparing the ground for early elections early next year. Political uncertainty in Europe's largest economy could not come at a worse time for the Union, which could find itself with 10% tariffs on European goods if Trump wins. Germany, whose main export market is the United States, would be particularly vulnerable, especially since Trump has proposed much higher taxes on cars. There will be a vote of confidence on January 15.
Today's data shows that the decrease is more than expected industrial production German industrial production in September 2024. According to the German statistical office Destatis, industrial production showed a monthly decrease of 2,5%, after +2,6% in August. Analysts' estimates were for a decline of -1,1%.
European stock markets: eyes on Banco Bpm and its takeover bid for Anima
European stock markets are expected to rise at the start of the session on the basis of a +0,46% in the future on the Eurostoxx50
Snam, an energy infrastructure company listed on Euronext Milan, closed the first nine months of 2024 with total revenues of 2.651 million euros (-7,4% compared to the first nine months of 2023). Regulated revenues are growing, driven by the gas infrastructure business
Iveco Group confirmed its full-year guidance after closing the third quarter with lower revenues and profitability, but noted that improved pricing and diligent cost management offset the expected impact on volumes in some of the businesses we operate in. Specifically, consolidated revenues fell to €3,446 billion from €3,710 billion in the third quarter of 2023, while net revenues from industrial activities fell to €3,355 billion from €3,623 billion, with improved pricing partially offsetting lower volumes in the Truck and Powertrain divisions. Adjusted net profit rose €10 million from the third quarter to €106 million.
BPER Banca closed the first nine months of 2024 with a Net income ordinary consolidated amounting to 1.110,6 million euros, up 2,2% compared to the same period of the previous year, after having expensed 109,6 million euros in the first half relating to contributions to systemic funds. It also updated the guidance for the 2024 financial year regarding the CET1 ratio, bringing it to approximately 15% compared to the indications shown at the presentation of the Industrial Plan (over 14,5%). Profit for the third quarter of 2024 alone is equal to 412,9 million euros (+6,3% q/q). core revenue rose by 5,0% in the 9 months, while the interest margin grew by 6,0%, thanks to the contribution of volumes and the trend in interest rates. Net commissions rose by 3,5. The quality of the credit was confirmed also in the first nine months of this year, in particular the NPE ratio, which stands at 2,8% gross (1,3% net), positions the group among the best in class of the Italian banking system.
Tenaris, an Italian giant in the supply of pipes and services for oil and gas exploration and production, reported net sales in the third quarter of 2024 of $2,92 billion (-12% on the second quarter of 2 and -2024 on the third quarter of 10), influenced by lower prices in the Americas and lower demand in the United States, Mexico and Saudi Arabia, as well as lower shipments of line pipes in Argentina. The board approved a follow-on share repurchase program of $3 million.
Bpm bank. THE'OPA on Anima announced yesterday “can be considered friendly” and the bank has “good relations with the other shareholders” of the asset manager, but it did not speak to anyone before the announcement to the market, the CEO of Banco BPM said, Joseph Chestnut, in the call with the financial community that followed the publication of the 9-month results. “We will be in contact with them, we want to consolidate the market to have a unique industrial proposal, and we will be happy if the current shareholders remain, but the offer is for everyone”.
