The markets are holding their breath as they await what is considered the most important macroeconomic indication of the week, namely the data relating tooccupation and the creation of new jobs able to determine the size and speed of the next rate cuts in the world’s largest economy. Analysts expect 165.000 new jobs to be added and the unemployment rate to fall to 4,2%. However, risks are now tilted to the downside.
Yesterday the Adp data on private sector employees only recorded the weakest positive change since January 2021, but historically the correlation between the two data is very low, so all hypotheses are open. Especially since yesterday the activity of service companies confirmed itself at the lively levels of the previous month.
Influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams will speak after the jobs data, giving the market a near-immediate reaction.
ING analysts say that even if wages come in line with expectations, markets could still reduce the possibility of a 50bp cut. In contrast, JP Morgan expects US employment data to disappoint, paving the way for a 50bp cut.
Tesla shines on Wall Street with its assisted driving
Last night on Wall Street the Nasdaq closed up 0,3% while the S&P0,3 fell 500%. Worth noting on the stock market, Tesla which soars 3,49% after the electric car maker announced that it will go ahead as planned with the launch of its Full Self-Driving assisted driving service in Europe and China. Also in the auto sector, sales are growing in the United States for the brand Ford 13,4% to 182.985 units. In particular, sales of electric vehicles increased by 28,9% to 8.944 units and hybrids by 49,8% to 16.394 units, but internal combustion vehicles still accounted for 86% of total vehicles sold. Ford sold over 103 trucks, of which 70.701 (+11,7%) were from the famous F-Series pickup series.
Of note in the chip sector, the company's quarterly results were released tonight. Broadcom. The Silicon Valley company beats analysts' estimates for revenue from infrastructure solutions in the final quarter of its fiscal year, but disappoints in the semiconductor area and misses the forecast for total revenue for the current quarter. The stock has lost 6% in the after-hours trading on Wall Street.
Asian stocks weak ahead of US data, Hong Kong closed due to super typhoon
Even in Asia there is a climate of anticipation for US data, while the stock market Hong Kong is closed for the arrival of a super typhoon on the area. At the stock exchange Tokyo il Nikkei lost 0,72%, closing at 36.391,47 points, accumulating a -5,5% in the week, while the yen continues to appreciate. Dollar-yen cross at 143. At these levels, the week closes with a 2,2% drop in the dollar. This morning the data on Real spending of Japanese households July's index fell by 1,7% on a monthly basis, down from the previous +0,1% (the forecast was -0,2%). The TAIEX index of Taipei earns 1% thanks to the push of its heavyweight Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, +2%. CSI 300 of the price lists of Shanghai and Shenzhen -0,3%, -2,2% per week.
Reuters reports that Guotai Junan Securities plans to acquire rival Haitong Securities in a stock swap, the companies said late on Monday. The merger of the two state-owned brokerage firms in China aims to create an industry leader with $230 billion in assets, part of Beijing's drive to consolidate the $1,7 trillion industry amid challenging markets.
Bloomberg reports that even the White House intends to impose export controls to China technologies considered critical: the rules specifically concern quantum computers and their components, advanced chip manufacturing tools, a cutting-edge semiconductor technology called “gate all-around,” and various components and software related to metals and metal alloys, including quantum computing and semiconductors. The United States would thus align itself with countries that seek to counter the progress of countries considered adversaries. The case is still in the spotlight Nippon Steel (-2,67%) after the United States said it was ready to block the purchase of US Steel by the Japanese giant due to national security concerns. One of the candidates to become the next prime minister of Japan said today that the news was "disturbing".
European stocks: what to watch today. German manufacturing down
European stock markets should open weakly (-0,37% the future on the Eurostoxx50) awaiting the US employment data, but also concerned by the falling data this morning relating to German productionThis morning industrial production in Germany in July showed a year-on-year decline of 5,3%, down from the previous -3,92%. On a monthly basis, the decline is 2,4%. In the period from May 2024 to July 2024, production was 2,7% lower than in the previous three months. After the revision of the provisional results, in June 2024 production increased by 1,7% compared to May 2024 (provisional figure: +1,4%). Also in Germany this morning, the trade balance in July was equal to 16,8 billion euros, down from the previous 20,4 billion euros (the forecast was 21 billion euros).
Italgas will resort to a capital increase from about a billion of euros to contribute to the financing of theacquisition of 2i Rete Gas, for which it should present a binding offer in the coming weeks. Il Sole 24 Ore wrote this, underlining that Cdp Reti, which has 25,99% of the company, will participate in the increase pro quota with 260 million. According to the newspaper, a definitive figure for the acquisition of the gas distribution operator has not yet been reached because an agreement has not been reached on the premium that will have to be applied to Rab (4,9 billion), but it will still be higher than 5 billion. Italgas has already said that it will resort to a bridging loan guaranteed by JP Morgan to be refinanced through equity, debt or “equity like” instruments.
mef. In the period January-July 2024, the tax revenues assessed on the basis of the legal competence criterion increased by 6,2% compared to the same period in 2023, amounting to 328.365 million euros, with an increase of 19.201 million. This was communicated by the Ministry of Economy and Finance. In particular, for direct taxes there was an increase of 14.024 million while for indirect taxes there was an increase of 5.177 million.
Banca Sella has placed a Covered Bond for institutional investors for an amount of 400 million with maturity in January 2029. The bond was issued at a price of 99,79 with an annual coupon of 3%.
stellantis will invest 385 million dollars in the Argentine plant in Córdoba for the five-year period 2025-2030, with the aim of developing a new family of vehicles, new components and a new engine in the country.
Bpm bank has reached an agreement with the confederal unions regarding a reduction in staff. The exits should be financed by capital gains realized from the sale of assets.
Digital Value has signed a letter with Intesa Sanpaolo and Mps that commits the banks to grant a medium-long term loan of 90 million euros in total for the acquisition of Italtel.
On the agenda today
The 50th edition of The European House – Ambrosetti Forum 'The Scenario of Today and Tomorrow for Competitive Strategies' opens in Cernobbio (Co). The works end on September 8th. Germany: Industrial production; Trade balance – France: Industrial production – Italy: Istat – retail trade – Eurozone: GDP; Employment.
