It can only be a week of great caution that opens today, characterized by the race for the presidency of the United States, but also by the decisions on interest rates by a group of central banks, including the Fed and the BoE and by a key meeting of the Chinese authorities on the stimulus packages. Today the scene was stolen by movements of the Currencies, from the rise of the Petroleum and from the leap of the Seoul Stock Exchange.
Dollar falls after latest US polls
The dollar fell overnight after a new Iowa poll, Des Moines Register/Mediacom, showed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris ahead of Republican Donald Trump. The greenback fell 0,9% against the yen and 0,6% against the euro, while the trade-sensitive Australian dollar rebounded 0,8%. This poll has a strong track record and is considered a predictor of voting in undecided states. The average of opinion polls still shows the candidates neck and neck and it is possible that the result of the vote will be known a no-vote on Wednesday. There could also be legal challenges to the results that could drag on for weeks. The title of the Trump house, the Trump Media & Technology Group Corp, continues to lose ground: the latest price shows a drop of more than 13% to $30,56.
Central banks in action this week
In any case, the markets expect the Federal Reserve will continue on its path and cut rates at the end of the FOMC meeting on Thursday, regardless of the outcome, with futures implying a 98% chance of a 25 basis point cut, with an 80% chance of another quarter point in December, although that could easily change depending on who becomes president-elect.
This week is also the turn of the Bank of England expected to cut by a quarter of a point on Thursday, while the riksbank should ease by 50 basis points. The Norges Bank , Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are seen standing still this week.
Oil rises after OPEC+ production hike postponed again
Oil prices extended their gains on Monday, rising more than $1 following the OPEC+ weekend decision, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies, to want extend the cuts to oil production until the end of December, postponing so as expected increase output to cope with lower prices. Brent crude futures rose $1,18 a barrel, or 1,61%, to $74,28 a barrel early Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1,21 a barrel, or 1,74%, to $70,70. The organization had intended to begin a series of monthly production increases by adding 180.000 barrels a day starting in December, but will now keep supply at current levels throughout the month. OPEC+, which had already postponed the increase until October, outlined a timetable in June to gradually restore 2,2 million barrels a day of production in monthly installments, a level not reached in the past two years.
Asian stocks rise, Seoul stands out. Tokyo closed
The week starts in Asia Pacific with China stocks positive waiting for details on stimulus packages this week, while the financial market of Japan is closed. The CSI 300 of the price lists of Shanghai and Shenzhen is up 0,5%. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, China's top legislative body, meets in Beijing from 4 to 8 November and some analysts are betting on at least 2.000 billion yuan (280 billion dollars) of fiscal stimulus, to complement the monetary stimulus package presented at the end of September. “We expect the headline figures to be announced for the four main components indicated by the Ministry of Finance in mid-October, namely the restructuring of local government debt, the stabilization of the real estate market, the injection of bank capital and support for domestic demand,” the report reads. Bloomberg Intelligence signed by economists Chang Shu, David Qu and Eric Zhu.
More than 5.300 listed companies in China reported net profit growth in the third quarter of 2024, the Chinese agency reported on Friday evening. Xinhua, the 5.368 companies listed on China's stock exchanges that have released quarterly reports have recorded a total net profit of 1.520 trillion yuan (about 213,7 billion U.S. dollars), up 4,9 percent year on year. In the first nine months of the year, these companies invested 1.100 trillion yuan in research and development, up 3,9 percent year on year.
The stock market is highlighted Alone, KOSPI index +1,4%. South Korea's main opposition party, the Democratic Party, has welcomed the government's proposal to eliminate income tax from financial investments, its leader declared last night, Lee Jae-myung. Ecosystem's staff is ceo of nvidia, Jensen Huang, asked the South Korean manufacturer SK Hynix to move up the shipment of its next-generation high-bandwidth HBM4 memory chips by six months. Nvidia holds more than 80% of the global AI chip market.
European stocks seen opening cautiously higher. Eyes on Eni, Unieuro, Moncler
European stock markets are seen opening cautiously higher, based on indications from the Euro Stoxx 50 Dec 2024 Future which is trading up 0,22%.
RyanairThe low-cost carrier said on Tuesday that average fares fell 10% in the six months to September, leading to an 18% year-on-year decline in first-half profits, but that bookings in the current quarter appeared strong and weakness in ticket prices was easing. Ryanair’s first-half after-tax profit was 1,79 billion euros ($1,95 billion), just shy of the 1,8 billion euros in profit forecast by a company survey of analysts.
Eni announced that it has finalized the agreement for the sale to Hilcorp of 100% of the assets of Nikaitchuq and Oooguruk held in Alaska for a value of 1 billion dollars. The transaction, which has received approval from all competent authorities, a note reports, is in line with Eni's strategy focused on optimizing upstream activities through a rebalancing of its portfolio and the disposal of non-strategic assets. As part of Eni's financial structure to support its growth strategy, the note also recalls, the company is committed to achieving net portfolio revenues of 8 billion euros over the 2024-27 Plan.
Team, responding to some rumors reported by the press, specified that the company is evaluating the possibility of assigning an extraordinary incentive system between 3 and 18 months' salary, for a group of 350 people, up to a maximum of 20 million euros, which does not affect the guidelines provided to the market.
Unieuro. Reopening of the voluntary purchase and exchange takeover bid promoted by Fnac Darty on Unieuro which ends on November 8th. At the request of Consob, Morgan Stanley specified on Sunday that it had increased its stake in Unieuro through its funds above 10% (10,2%) (last October 23rd) almost doubling its position in the company, that it does not act in concert with third parties and that in the next 6 months it could acquire/dispose additional shares or financial instruments in Unieuro, “in particular in the context of facilitating customer-related activities and in line with our normal course of business. This could result in Morgan Stanley’s holdings exceeding/falling below the relevant threshold of 10%”.
Moncler. Miss Tweed, a specialist website on luxury and fashion, has reported “growing industry rumours” that Moncler may be considering making a bid for the British Burberry, listed on the London Stock Exchange, to create a giant specializing in outdoor clothing. Moncler said it does not comment on “unfounded rumors.”
