Le Pen wins in the first round, but does not break through and the possibilities of a caretaker government in Paris are rising: the prospect pleases European markets who, after the great fear of recent weeks, are today celebrating the electoral outcome with a rising session which also inaugurates the new semester.
Paris +1,09% and Milan +1,7%, these are the best places. On the other hand, they are those who have suffered the most, after the surprise call of early elections in France by President Emmanuel Macron. They close on the two price lists banks rally, while on the secondary the spreads.
The day also ends positively Madrid +1,05% and Frankfurt +0,33%, almost colorless Amsterdam (-0,09%). She's shy London (+0,04%), which in turn focuses on the electoral event at home. The British will also be called to vote on Thursday and, at the moment, the market is betting on Labor's victory.
Uncertain Wall Street
In this summer full of political confrontations and unexpected outcomes, Wall Street today it moves little far from parity (plates Dj e S & P 500, Nasdaq +0,29%), while they decrease the possibilities of Joe Biden withdrawing in the race for the White House, after the panic created in the Democratic camp by the face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump. The former president today also receives the partial immunity granted by the Supreme Court.
The US stock market is moving uncertainly after a series of worse-than-expected macro data and at the start of a choppy week, because Wall Street will be closed on Thursday for Independence Day. The eighth is however important in terms of the data taken into great account by the Federal Reserve, in particular those on employment.
There will be an opportunity to get some updates on monetary policy from Jerome Powell, as today kicks off Sintra, in Portugal, the traditional three days of central bank forumi organized by the ECB. The president of the European bank Christine Lagarde will speak in the evening and then tomorrow and Wednesday, while the president of the Fed, Powell, will speak the day after tomorrow.
Piazza Affari, banks to the rescue
In June, banks paid the highest price for the uncertainty triggered by the continental political framework and the sector lost around 5%, but today banking stocks close a session on the bounce.
The best of the day is Ps +6,71%, which remains the cornerstone of a wedding season. Furthermore, tomorrow the block on the sale of the residual stake held by the Mef in the Sienese institute, equal to 26,7%, expires.
Following i Bper + 5,83% Unicredit + 4,62% Bpm bank + 3,36% Understanding + 3,18% Mediobanca + 2,92% Popular of Sondrio +2,99%. The other components of the "top ten" of the day are also financial stocks: Post + 2,82% Generali + 2,75% Banca Mediolanum + 2,72%.
In other sectors it remained under observation telecom, +1,12%, on the day of the closing of the sale of NetCo to Kkr and which marks a new era for the former telephone monopolist.
Despite the desire for equities, they closed against the trend Prysmian -1,94% stm -1,76% Campari -1,59% Interpump -1,16%.
Outside the main basket it is in light Fincantieri +10,79%, dealing with a capital increase which will close on 11 July. Furthermore, the title celebrates the new order from the Italian Navy for a 500 million euro submarine and the promotion by some brokers.
Spiking spreads; Italian manufacturing improves in June, unique in the euro area
Also benefiting from the newfound propensity for risk is Italian paper, which finds its best support in a strong and cohesive Europe. The spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration it falls to 150 basis points.
Rates are rising, but this time it is above all the market that is under pressure Waist, which sees a yield of 2,6% versus 4,1%. btp.
The French paper also closes in green. The spread between Oat and Bund drops to 69 basis points (it had exceeded 80 points last week). The French decennial shows a rate of 3,29%.
In the orgy of political data, macroeconomic data are slightly in the background.
from Germany in any case the news arrives that inflation in June, according to preliminary estimates, is lower than expected: +2,2% on a trend basis (+0,1% cyclical) against estimates of 2,5%. Furthermore, at the end of the second quarter the German manufacturing sector suffered a new setback, although less abrupt than expected: the HCOB PMI index stood at 43,5 in June, down compared to the four-month high in May of 45,4 ,XNUMX, according to the definitive data.
Furthermore, last month in the Eurozone only Italy was saved from a worsening of the indices. The manufacturing PMI del Belpaese rose to 45,70 from 45,60 in May. The estimates stopped at 44,3.
Euro recovering, there is no peace for the yen
THEeuro raises its head today, after the outcome of the first round of French elections. The more "spendable" forces have had excellent results, but governability will have to be won in the second round and stalemate is a possible scenario, which could find an answer in a technical government according to many observers, a prospect not unwelcome to the markets. The single currency regains strength and is currently trading above 1,073 against the dollar. Also there GBP appears timidly positive, while it yen appears crushed by the weight of the greenback for an exchange rate of 161,60.
Among raw materials, progress is being made Petroleum: Brent +0,74%, 85,62 dollars a barrel; Wti +0,83%, 82,22 dollars a barrel.