THEinflation in October Slows more than expected in the euro area and particularly in Italian, offering a starting point optimism ai markets of the block, which today closed on the rise, savoring the end of the tightening by the ECB. The monetary policy conducted so far weighs on economic growth, as demonstrated by the third quarter GDP, but this is the price of ten consecutive rate increases, even if Eurotower left rates unchanged last week. Overseas Wall Street it moves weak a few hours after the opening, waiting for the Fed to make its decision tomorrow and give a glimpse of its future moves, while China has sounded a new alarm bell with the unexpected contraction in manufacturing activity in the month that ends today .
Piazza Affari queen in Europe
At the end of the Halloween session Business Square it is queen in Europe, with an increase of 1,47%, which allows it to recover part of this month's losses and return to close to 28 thousand basis points (27.741).
They favor the result Amplifon +4,97% and stellantis, +3,29%, the latter after better-than-expected quarterly results.
The banks archive a purchasing session, with Bper effervescent, +3,68%, followed Understanding + 2,29% Ps +2,16% and Bpm bank + 2,12%.
Prysmian, +2,8%, celebrates the new order of 900 million in the USA.
Among utilities it is particularly notable Hera + 2,8%.
In healthcare it is appreciated Diasorin + 2,95%.
The declines, among the blue chips, are today limited to four stocks: Iveco -1,17% Erg -1,11% Tenaris -0,7% Terna -0,36%.
In the rest of the continent: Frankfurt + 0,62% Paris + 0,87% Amsterdam + 0,59% Madrid + 0,06%.
Outside the eurozone London it lost 0,1%, with energy stocks depressed by the decline in BP (4,58%) after third-quarter profits were lower than analysts' expectations.
Spread stable, rates also falling on primary
The positive effects of the macroeconomic data are also reflected on the bond market, with the spread between the Italian and German ten-year bonds which close not far from the day before at 189 basis points (-0,58%), with rates falling: 4,69% is the yield on the BTP; 2,8% is that of the Bund.
I rates come down also on the packaging, as seen in the morning auctions: the Treasury issued the third tranche of the 5-year BTp for 2,5 billion and the yield fell by 29 cents to 4,12%. The fifth tranche of the 10-year BTp for a yield down 17 cents compared to last month's auction, to 4,76%. The 01-year off-the-run BTp expiring 06/2027/3,84 shows a yield of XNUMX%.
The Treasury also placed the ninth tranche of the CcTeu expiring 15/10/2028, achieving a gross yield of 5,16%.
Energy prices are falling and inflation is slowing in the euro area
i go down energy prices andinflation slows down in the euro zone in October, according to Eurostat's flash estimate: +2,9% from +4,3% in September. According to Istat, in Italy the slowdown is even more marked: 1,8% this month, compared to +5,3% in September. The drastic decline is largely due to the trend in the prices of energy goods, which has seen a marked deceleration trend due to the statistical effect deriving from the comparison with October 2022, when strong price increases were recorded. A contribution to the downsizing is also due to the dynamics of food prices (from +7,7% to +5%).
The negative side of the coin is theGDP trend. In the third quarter there was one in the single currency area decrease by 0,1% compared to the previous quarter, while compared to the same period in 2022, GDP increased by 0,1%.
'SItaly has zero growth in the third quarter, compared to the second. Istat confirms that the growth achieved for the whole of 2023 remains at +0,7% as already in the second quarter.
Prometeia agrees, whose WEIP index, which measures the Italian economy in real time, also shows a worsening in the month of October. Faced with consumption crushed by inflation and investments blocked by uncertainty, Prometeia predicts that the weakness in demand "will continue for the autumn months and beyond".
The dollar strengthens, the yen plunges after the BoJ
On the foreign exchange market the dollar is getting stronger and theeuro trades down for an exchange rate below 1,06.
The most suffering currency is lo yen, which reached a 15-year low against the single currency and one-year lows against the dollar. The decisions of the Japanese Central Bank are weighing on the Japanese currency, which has chosen to leave the short-term interest rate unchanged at -0,1%, while that of the yields on ten-year bonds has been set at around 0%. However, the upper limit of the control range of the yield curve was brought to around 1%. Reuters writes that “the Bank of Japan's cautious decision towards the end of years of monetary stimulus did not assuage some investors who had expected a broader move.”
Il Petroleum it is flat, in an ambiguous picture, after China showed that the PMI for manufacturing activity fell in October to 49,5 from 50,2 and against expectations of confirmation at the previous level. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 50,6, from 51,7 in September and below the expected 50,8, as activity in the services and construction sectors slowed.
At the moment the Brent future (January 2024) trades around 86,39 dollars per barrel, while the WTI (December 2023) prices 82,38 dollars per barrel.
Prices are falling with conviction gas in Amsterdam, -9,3%, 48,100 kWh.