La Trump Avalanche has hit the markets with opposite effects on European and US stocks: the price lists continental they close in fall a very volatile session that started under good auspices, but which soon changed pace; Wall Streett flies and burns new highs, galvanized by a landslide victory in the presidential election of the Republican candidate who promises stability and leniency.
Fly the dollar e T-Bonds Collapse.
Square Business loses 1,54% and breaks the 34 basis point threshold due to sales in banks and utilities.
Madrid is the worst with a loss of 2,93%, penalized by the strong falls in banks.
Frankfurt loses 1,09%, Paris 0,51%, Amsterdam 0,83%. It seems indifferent London, -0,09%, on the eve of the BoE meeting which is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.
On the subject of central banks, tomorrow the spotlight will also be on Federal Reserve, which should in turn proceed with a 0,25% cut of the cost of money. In recent days, the market has been betting that the Fed will proceed with an identical move in December. Donald Trump's return to the White House has reduced the probability from 80% to 68,7% (according to the FedWatch Tool of the Cme Group) since his policy of tax cuts and duties could, according to experts, raise inflation.
Wall Street rallying, banks euphoric
Wall Street has started off at full speed and is continuing its euphoric run for the day. The VIX fear index for stock market volatility has fallen to its lowest level in over a month, returning below historical averages. They are running DJ, S&P 500, Nasdaq and the small and medium-sized index, Russell, gained 4,56%. “The market believes that a Trump presidency will unleash the ‘animal spirits’ and boost growth in the short term thanks to some corporate tax cuts and deregulation,” said Frédérique Carrier, head of investment strategy for RBC Wealth Management in the British Isles and Asia.
Among other things the Republican Party has majority in Senate and it is also ahead in the House and this homogeneity can make it easier for the president to carry out his policies.
Among the sectors that “win the election” is banking, with institutions and their stocks celebrating the prospect of less stringent regulations, tax cuts, rising inflation and likely higher interest rates. Goldman Sachs gains almost 13% and JP Morgan is close to +10% on the Dow Jones (+3,05%) that moves above 43.509 basis points.
They run i titles of the oil majors and of course he rejoices Tesla, up 13% after the strong role played by the owner Elon Musk in the election campaign in favor of Trump.
The actions of Trump Media & Technology they appreciate by 5,57%, but they have been running for many days betting on the election outcome.
The stock has more than tripled in value from its all-time lows in late September, and Trump's stake is worth about $4,8 billion.
Superstar dollar
The outcome of the presidential election gives wings to the dollar, which is in strong rise against major currencies. Theeuro loses almost 2%, for a change in the 1,072 area. The GBP gives up 1,25%. The greenback is also travelling strong against the yen, bringing the cross back above 154.
Benefiting from the new course at the White House, open to digital currencies, is the bitcoin, which has touched a new record over 75 thousand dollars. At the moment the advantage of the main cryptocurrency is 7%, $74.240.
Among the raw materialsgold suffers from the strengthening of the US currency and the newfound political stability in the US, showing a decline of around 2,5% for both the December contract and the spot. The latter shows a price of 2.673,52 dollars per ounce.
Il Petroleum moves in search of a precise direction and is currently trading timidly upwards. Texas crude is up 0,43% at $72,30 a barrel; Brent is up 0,17% at $75,66. The 47th US president has promised to increase oil extraction in the US, raising questions about the price of black gold, but supporting stocks in the sector while, even in the United States, renewable energy stocks are suffering.
Instead, the following are sinking: T Bonds, who see Trump's campaign promises as a risk to the public debt. Investors believe that tax cuts and other spending plans will increase the fiscal deficit and that a possible trade war with China and the European Union could increase inflation. Treasury prices are falling and rates are rising sharply: the 4,5-year is close to XNUMX%.
Piazza Affari, rises and falls after quarterly results and Trump
Square Business has been juggling quarterly results and US elections and shows a significant gap among blue chips.
The best big cap is Tenaris, +6,76%, exposed to the US and optimistic thinking about possible benefits coming from Trump's policies and the resumption of oil exploration.
Also on the podium of the Ftse Mib Diasorin, +5,57%, after the quarterly results above expectations shown yesterday and in the perspective of positive developments in the sector in the United States.
Leonardo +3,48%, puts fears of a possible peace in Ukraine behind it and instead focuses on Trump's demand for an increase in defense spending up to 2% of each country's GDP to maintain the support of NATO allies. In addition, the Italian government is in negotiations with Enel (-2,61%), Ansaldo Nucleare and Leonardo as potential partners of a state-owned company that will build advanced nuclear reactors in the country.
The spectre of American tariffs does not scare stellantis +1,75% or cucinelli, +1,11% although cars and luxury will have something to worry about, although this prospect has already been paid for recently by the stocks in these sectors.
The most penalised stocks are the banking ones, starting from Unicredit -5,31%, despite the accounts, Followed by Ps -3,28% Banco bpm -3,04% Understanding -3,12%.
Male Inwit, -5,25%, the day after the quarterly results that the telecommunications infrastructure company closed with revenues of 260,3 million, down 0,7% (consensus at 262,1 million, an EBITDA of 237,2 million (-1,5%, consensus at 240,9 million) and a net debt of 4,581 million (consensus at 4,595 million).
The effect of new, potential tariffs is being felt on Campari -4,78%.
Among the utilities, those that have focused on renewables are suffering the most: Getting very -3,95%.
Spread widening sharply
The day was clearly unfavorable to Italian paper. The 3,73-year BTP sees a yield rising to XNUMX% and the spread with the Bund of the same duration it soars to 133 basis points.
