European stock markets close a session without a compass and specularly Wall Street moves weakly in the American morning, with investors at a standstill waiting for big news on the horizon: the US elections, with an increasingly uncertain outcome and the meeting of the Federal Reserve.
After several changes of direction Business Square reaches the finish line down 0,39%, Frankfurt loses 0,53%, so Paris -0,5% Amsterdam -0,47% and Madrid -0,33%; just rises London + 0,11%.
In New York the DJ moves in a more decisive downward direction, weighed down by Intel (-2,95%) which will soon have to give way to Nvidia (+2,29%) on the index. Caution permeates the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
US Elections and Fed Hold Investors Back
The major events of the week therefore suggest caution: tomorrow the presidential elections will be held in the United States and the polls show Democratic candidate Kamala Harris making a comeback, weighing down the dollar and encouraging purchases of T-Bond; The Federal Reserve meeting will end on Thursday, with the market united in believing that Jerome Powell will cut rates by 25 points basis, while the opinion prevails for a similar cut in the December meeting. In addition, the quarterly season is at its peak and in the US this week about one hundred companies of the S&P will publish their accounts.
In this context the Vix index of the CBOE, which measures expected market volatility, stands at 22,39, well above its 30-day moving average of 19,44, but still below the 34-41 range it was in on the eve of the 2020 election. In addition, Republican candidate Donald Trump is already talking about possible fraud, raising the question of an uncertain and delayed election outcome.
Dollar down; T-Bond yields fall
The dollar is trading lower today against major currencies. According to most observers, this movement is connected to Harris's rise in the polls, who now seems to be ahead of Trump. In particular, according to the latest survey by the Des Moines Register, the Democratic candidate (given at 47%) could wrest Iowa from her Republican rival (given at 44%), who had won this state in previous presidential contests. Theeuro appreciates by 0,55% and currently sees an exchange rate just below 1,09. The greenback weakens by a similar amount against the and in.
Also the GBP is recovering ground, while the BoE will also pronounce itself on monetary policy on Thursday, with investors expecting a 25 basis cut by the British central bank. In Europe, banks in Norway and Sweden will also make decisions on rates.
Among the raw materials the tune moves Petroleum, after OPEC+ announced over the weekend that it was postponing its planned December production increase by a month. Texas crude is trading around $70,90 a barrel, Brent at $74,40.
Piazza Affari: Diasorin and banks do well; Leonardo fears Trump
In Piazza Affari, banks are positive starting from Bper +1,33%. Big companies doing well Understanding +0,87% and Unicredit +0,36%. The latter has completed the acquisition of Alpha Bank Romania, which will be merged into its Romanian subsidiary, creating the third largest banking group in terms of assets in the country with a market share of 12%. Well Bpm bank + 0,76% Popular of Sondrio + 0,43% Mediobanca + 0,69%.
It is appreciated Diasorin, +0,89%, pending quarterly results to be published this week.
Closes the group of blue chips on the rise Enel + 0,27%.
Oil stocks, which were positive in the morning, slowed down despite the rise in crude oil prices Saipem It is colorless, despite Jefferies' price target increase.
At the bottom of the basket is Iveco -3,2%. Bad stm -3,06%, penalized by the double cut in the target price by HSBC and Morgan Stanley. Leonardo -2,47% nervously awaits the election outcome of the stars and stripes, like all defense stocks, which have seen cyclopean increases since the start of the Ukrainian war. The risk of a Trump victory is leading investors to be cautious today. Retreats Amplifon -2,74%.
Moncler loses 2,08%, while the press indiscretion of a possible interest in Burberry. The English company's stock, however, appeared euphoric in London (+6,03%).
Outside the main basket it is confirmed in money Basicnet (+5,62%), after the sale of 40% of K-Way. In an interview, the company's top management said they were aiming for a separate listing of K-Way.
Among the football titles, the most notable is Lazio +10,16%, before tonight's match against Cagliari. In case of victory, the team would conquer third place in the championship.
As a bit of Italy is waving in Paris, we would like to point out the good performance of Essilux (+3,13%) on the Cac 40, with the confirmation of the news, by the French press, that Meta to acquire 4-5% of eyewear group investing approximately 5 billion euros.
Spread stable, rates falling
The secondary market is also heading towards a calm end to the session, where the spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration appears stable at 128 basis points. Rates are slightly decreasing and the Italian bond is indicated at 3,66%.
