After filing a golden quarter, i European lists inaugurate the month of April under the banner of weakness, thanks today to the negative trend of Wall Street. Paradoxically, weighing on the mood of the markets is the fact that the US economy is bursting with health, as demonstrated by the latest macro data. There are fears that this offers the Fed the opportunity to delay reducing interest rates. There is even doubt about the overall extent of these cuts during the year, which the bankers themselves spoke about (75 basis). Even more so since theinflation slows down, but at a less intense pace than hoped and the Petroleum soars to five-month highs, in an increasingly heated geopolitical context: Brent and WTI futures currently see prices rise by around 1%. The money thus flows into safe haven assets such as gold e dollar. The gold future is moving at record levels around 2.282 dollars an ounce and spot gold is trading higher at 2262,1 dollars.
On the foreign exchange market theeuro it is now recovering slightly against the dollar, although moving below 1,08.
Europe in red; Tesla collapses in New York
Business Square closed its first session of the week, after the Easter holidays, down by 1,22%, to 34.325 basis points. The script is similar to Frankfurt -1,26% Paris -0,92% Madrid -0,88%. Losses are moderate to London -0,2%, while Amsterdam it is flat.
At the moment the declines are greater than 1% for the main Wall Street indices, with the Nasdaq ballasted by Tesla (-5,7%), after the publication of data on production and quarterly deliveries considered disappointing by investors. Raise your head instead Trump Media, +4%, returning from a drop of more than 20% in the previous session due to a net loss, for the former US president's company, of 58,2 million dollars in 2023. 2022, however, was closed with a net profit of 50,5 million.
Bonds lose share
Also suffering today is thebond on both sides of the Atlantic.
The odds of a rate cut in June by the Fed fell yesterday with the ISM data, on the manufacturing industry in March, which returned above the threshold of 50 (to 50,3) and therefore in the expansion zone, a condition that had not been seen for about a year and a half and against expectations at 48,3.
This triggered the biggest sell-off in US government bonds in several weeks. A trend that still continues today, with i Treasury who sell falling prices and rising rates. The 4,37-year bond shows a yield of over XNUMX%.
The data published today also suggests aAmerican economy more than solid: In February, factory orders in the United States increased more than expected and the number of job offers fell slightly, but was essentially in line with estimates.
Finally, the PCE inflation data, seen last Friday, was in line with expectations, but some analysts observed that the pace of the slowdown was less intense compared to the previous month.
In Europe the picture is less rosy. March inflation in Germany falls to 2,2% (data on the bloc should be released tomorrow), but manufacturing is struggling in the Euroland and activity is contracting at an even faster pace than in February, due to the continued decline of the question.
THEItaly shows data going against the trend: the Bel country's manufacturing PMI index returns to expansion (50,4) after a year of suffering, thanks to a slight growth in both orders and production; France (46,2) and Germany (41,9) however are marking time and weighing down the entire euro zone.
Spread at 140 basis points
Despite the recovery in manufacturing, the risk that the easing of monetary policy will move away (the Fed dictates the line globally) also weighs on Italian paper. The spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration, after having exceeded 140 basis points, it closes little changed at 139 points (+0,08%), but the rates are growing: the BTP is indicated at 3,78% and the Bund at +2,39%.
Piazza Affari, oil companies doing well; Cucinelli and Azimut go down
On the main price list of Business Square the scales today lean towards the sales side and they weigh above all on the plate Brunello cucinelli -3,96% and Azimuth -4,89%.
The shares of the king of cashmere suffer from the cut of the target price to 120 euros from 133 euros previously by ubs, while Azimut continues to retreat after the announcement of a plan to create a digital bank, to be listed on the stock exchange within 6-9 months.
Red is also lit for Diasorin -3,71% Interpump -3,61% and stellantis -3,28%.
At the top of the list are oil stocks, in tune with the trajectory of crude oil prices. Eni rises by 2,61, followed by Saipem + 1,86%.
In the automotive sector it returns to profit Iveco +1,92%, after recent gains.
Banks stand out with Popular of Sondrio +0,94% and Bpm bank +1,07%, while they are moderately negative Understanding -0,46% and Unicredit -0,07%. Heavier Monte paschi -1,59%.
In insurance Unipol, +1,21%, celebrates Consob's green light for the takeover bid on the subsidiary Unipolsai which will start on 8 April.
Among the utilities, some timid ideas on Terna + 0,34%.
