After roaring Monday of Italian banks (+2% the sector index, at the highest since 2016) the markets' attention shifts again to the USA. Today (at 14pm Italian time) the highly anticipated data on'inflation which, according to forecasts, should confirm the decline (-0,3%) but not in the core index, the most followed by the Fed. And the experts are divided. Everyone or almost everyone agrees on the central bank's decision not to move in December, but it is clear rift between doves and hawks on the future: UBS expects four cuts in 2024, starting in March. Morgan Stanley moves the start of the end of the squeeze to June. On the contrary, Goldman Sachs believes that the Fed will not move through 2024. Behind this debate emerges the fear of not participating in the end-of-year party. Despite the alarm on public finances launched by Moody's (but contested by Janet Yellen) there is one great desire to purchase: Wall Street Journal signals that these are very hot days for purchases of call options on the S&P500: back to levels not seen since February.
Italian banks +42% since the beginning of the year
Caution is a must a few hours after the release of the US data. The stock exchanges of Europe they opened slightly higher.
Index yesterday FtseMib closed up 1,5% at 28.925 points, the highest since the end of September, thanks to the formidable push of the banking sector. The sector's performance, driven by the excellent results of the quarter, was +42% since the beginning of the year, equal to almost four times the Eurostoxx Banks index (+12%) and over eight times the +5,0% recorded by the Stoxx 600 index.
The race was led on Monday Unicredit +3,2%, the most traded stock on Piazza Affari at the highest since 2016 but the day's Oscar falls to Mount Paschi +7,5% awarded by Deutsche Bank. But there are many stocks at multi-year highs: Banco Bpm, Bper, Popolare Sondrio. The race continues today with the banks leading the opening Ftse Mib at +0,42% over 29 thousand points.
In parallel, it was an adjustment session for the bond market, the first of the week awaiting US and European macro data. Waist German stable at 2,71%. BTP ten-year to 4,56%. spread 184, at a two-month low.
Hearings on the maneuver, today it's Giorgetti's turn
Changes to contribution rates and Irpef may result an increase in disposable family income of 1,5% for three out of four families. This was said by Andrea Brandolini, deputy head of the Economics and Statistics department Bank of Italy. But alarm about the debt also emerged in the parliamentary hearing. Today at the hearing the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti and the Parliamentary Budget Office will be heard.
For Italy, the key event remains Friday evening when the Moody's verdict which currently rates Italy Baa3, with a negative outlook. According to Intermonte, an increase in the estimates to "stable" would bring the spread to 160/170 points. In the event of a downgrade, the spread would rise to 250 points.
Many the interventions by central bankers on the agenda. For the ECB we highlight Lane and Villeroy (today), Knot and Lagarde on Thursday and also on Friday, together with the hawks Holzmann and Nagel.
Xi – Biden: the first agreement concerns Fentanyl
The wait for the meeting between Xi Jingping and Joe Biden tomorrow in San Francisco. No major developments are expected in the relationship between the two superpowers, but there could be an agreement ban the importation of Fentanyl in the USA. An important novelty for the mentality of the Chinese who still today experience the importation of opium into China in the nineteenth century as an affront, symbol of the colonial season.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that according to officials at the APEC summit in San Francisco, the impact of the conflict on the global economy is limited.
The Yen under fire, the Government takes the field
Weak Wall Street the S&P500 (-0,1%, 4.411) remained just above the first resistance at 4.400 points, as did the Nasdaq (-0,2%, 13.767) remained above its resistance at 13.618 points.
THEMSCI World index it closed slightly higher, confirming the holding of the key threshold at 2.900 points, a two-month high.
To report the decline of the yen (151,70). The dollar rose to its highest level in more than a year against the Japanese yen yesterday at 151,91, before sharply reversing course on strong trading growth ($3,45 billion in options expiring this week). However, the markets are very attentive to potential intervention by Tokyo to support the Yen which is in serious difficulty due to the ultra-accommodative policy which contrasts with the philosophy of all the other central banks.
The stock markets of Japan and South Korea stand out this morning in Asia Pacific, the Nikkei of Tokyo gains 0,6%, the Kospi of Seoul 1,2%.
24 hours after the meeting in California between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, China's stock markets are little moved, Hang Seng -0,1% CSI300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen price lists unchanged.
Oil: OPEC sees recovery
Petroleum WTI at 78,5 dollars a barrel, Brent at 83 dollars. Crude oil is in its fourth consecutive session of growth. According to OPEC, market fundamentals are strong: crude oil imports from China increased last month and the US economy is recovering. In the report released yesterday, the cartel states that the drop in prices is largely due to the strong bearish bets of market operators.
Hamas has lost control of the Strip with its militiamen "fleeing" to the south, while Israeli troops have taken the Parliament in Gaza City and the hospitals have now become a battlefield. A scenario of total conflict in which US President Joe Biden has launched yet another appeal for moderation, asking Israel for "less invasive actions" against Al Shifa, while the UN has warned that "within 48 hours" humanitarian operations will cease due to lack of fuel.
Ferrari is also hiring early retirements for Stellantis in the USA
Ferrari will hire 250 people within the first semester next year. In reverse stellantis launched a voluntary early retirement plan in the US for 6.400 employees.
Jefferies has lowered the target price of the three asset management companies: Fineco, Banca Mediolanum, Banca Generali.
Other titles in the spotlight:
- Banca Popolare di Sondrio: Dbrs Morningstar confirmed the ratings while improving the trend to 'positive' from 'stable.
- Prysmian: Morgan Stanley limits the target price to 43 euros.
- Getting very closed the first nine months of 2023 with an adjusted consolidated EBITDA of 365 million euros, down compared to the 390 million in the first nine months of 2022. In a note, the company announces that it has revised the group results expected at the end of the year. In detail, the expected range for the gross operating margin has been revised slightly upwards, now between 490 and 520 million (previously 480-520 million) while the "indication on investments, expected between 500 and 600 million euros" is confirmed and the net financial debt, between 1.400 and 1.500 million, unchanged despite the disbursements foreseen for the buyback program"
- Team: Consob asked Merlyn Advisor, promoter of an alternative plan to the sale of the network together with former manager Stefano Siragusa, to clarify the press statements relating to the direct and indirect position held in the telephone group. Vivendi's lawyers are working to file a legal challenge in a Milan court against the board's decision to sell the group's fixed-line assets later this week or next, two other sources familiar with the matter said.
- Lottomatica: Edoardo Mercadante, through the Parvus Europe fund, holds long positions equal to 5,117% of the betting company.
