Le stock exchanges of Europe they opened the session with caution. The Ftse Mib of Milan yesterday started the week with a decline (-0,5%) and today at the start it is just above parity, held back by the collapse of Saipem (-8,6%).
Spreads at lowest since April 2022
In Milan the most positive note came from BTP/Bund spread ten-year bond, which fell yesterday to 149 basis points, below the threshold of 150 points for the first time since April 2022. If the trend towards recovering the credibility of the Italian system continues, perhaps with another "full" of BTP Valore, it cannot exclude revising the spread to around 100 basis points in September 202. Yesterday the vice president of the European Central Bank Luis de Guindos said on the radio that Frankfurt will cut rates sooner or later, given the recent and encouraging evolution of inflation in the euro zone" .
New records on Wall Street
With an extension in the last hour, the United States stock exchange closed yesterday on the rise. S&P500 +0,8% and sixth record of 2024. Record also for the Dow Jones +0,6%. Nasdaq +1,1. The decision of the contributed to favoring the market trend US Treasury to limit the amount of auctions for new Treasury securities to $760 billion. Janet Yellen has in fact revised the emissions requirement for the current quarter downwards to 760 billion dollars, approximately 55 less than the preliminary indication.
This also contributes to a soft eve waiting for Fed decisions which will be announced tomorrow at 20pm Italian time. Europe is also showing some good signs of momentum thanks to the strengthening of the scenario on the decline in rates. The EuroStoxx 50 Index (4.639) reached its highest level in the last 23 years; the confirmation at the end of the month of the break of the 4.600 area should open the doors to a further extension up to 5.500 points, the absolute tops of 2000. The Stoxx 600 index (485) has been at the top for two years.
Microsoft gives the charge to Wall Street: Musk launches Neuralink, Amazon gives up iRobot
The absolute protagonist of yesterday's session in New York was Microsoft +1,9% which brought its market cap to 3.045 billion dollars before the quarterly accounts which will be published this evening after the market is closed. The accounts of. will also be released in the evening Alphabet, AMD, Pfizer and General Motors.
Elon Musk announced that his startup Neuralink has installed its first brain implant in a human, with initial results demonstrating “promising neuron spike detection.” The company aims to build direct communication channels between the brain and computers that can, for example, treat neurological disorders.
Amazon has abandoned its planned $1,4 billion acquisition of iRobot, the maker of the Roomba robot vacuum cleaner, citing EU antitrust resistance. iRobot has announced a restructuring plan that also includes a 31% job cut.
The performance of Asian stock markets
Fortunately, Asia is not just Evergrande. The Nikkei rises Tokyo +0,3%. The dollar weakens higher yen to 147,3, while expectations of a forthcoming change in monetary policy in Japan begin to cool again. Stock markets are rising slightly South Korea (Kospi +0,3%) andAustralia: the S&P AX200 index closed with a gain of 0,3%, eighth session with a plus sign.
Dollar below 1,08, drop in rates less certain
Il dollar it dropped below 1,08 yesterday for the first time since mid-December. Markets quickly reduced the odds of a cut in March after a long run of macroeconomic data highlighted extraordinary resilience in the US economy. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability today is 48%, up from 89% a month ago. A prospect of higher US rates for longer bodes well for the greenback.
The winds of war push oil
Petroleum up 0,5% from -1,4%. The price reacts nervously to the evolving scenario in the Middle East. According to insiders, if the situation worsens to the point of a standoff between the United States and Iran or more severe sanctions, then oil could sustain a range of $80-100 a barrel for some time.
Washington has vowed to take “all necessary actions” to defend its troops after a deadly drone attack in Jordan by Iranian-backed militants. Iran has said it had nothing to do with the bombing.
Buyback in sight for Generali, Profumo for Intesa
Generali will propose at the next shareholders' meeting in April a 500 million share buyback plan euros to be launched by 2024. The group benefits from the introduction of the new accounting standards, with the Life business showing constant growth, with a more predictable trend. Thanks to the tariff increases and technical measures implemented in 2022 and 2023, which will continue into 2024, Generali expects the undiscounted Combined Ratio to remain below 96% during 2024.
Unicredit: according to rumors, the exposure to the Sigma Re crack should be in the order of six hundred million euros, about half the figure initially circulated in the newspapers. Part of the credit has attached collateral, so the value of the provisions could be of little importance.
Intesa Sanpaolo: Francesco Profumo announces his resignation as president of the Compagnia Sanpaolo Foundation, main shareholder of Intesa, starting from next February 22nd ahead of the expiry of the mandate set in April, when the mandate for the four-year period 2020-2023 will expire. According to press rumors, the president of the Compagnia Foundation is in pole position to succeed Gian Maria Gros-Pietro as president of Intesa Sanpaolo, when his role expires in April 2025.
Buzzi: Citi raises the target price to 32 euros.
stellantis: Stellantis Pro One commercial vehicle division is ready to start production of the new large fuel cell van.
Campari: Diageo presented lower-than-expected quarterly accounts.
Snam: the Olt offshore LNG terminal will be closed for a few months due to maintenance activities. Regasification operations will be suspended from the beginning of April until the end of October.
