“The door is not only locked but the key has been thrown away. We don't think a cut in May is out of the question, but it stands to reason that the odds have narrowed substantially." Thus a report of Janus Henderson summarizes the markets' reaction to the data onUS inflation in January, which fell but not enough: 3,1% against the markets' expectations for a result below 3%. Hence the immediate revision of rate forecasts: no cutting before May or, perhaps, June.
Hence the immediate drop in Dow Jones and the rise in the yield of bond rebounded to 4,27% in the USA. The dollar obviously accentuated the gains, while the commodities lost, with the precious metals and the natural gas to trace the path, and the Petroleum against the trend, another factor that can fuel inflation.
But the cold shower didn't last long. The sentiment of the market, writes Reuters this morning, remains set upwards despite the probable postponement of rate cuts. “The high cost of money only serves to signal that the economy is in good condition, much more solid than a few months ago.” The news on the trend of US inflation has indeed cooled the euphoria of the last few sessions, but without particular stress: sales on shares, bonds, gold and Bitcoin, purchases of dollars, in the prospect of higher rates for longer.
Hong Kong reopens uphill
The reopening of the Stock Exchange contributes to confirming this reading Hong Kong after the Lunar New Year. The Hang Seng index is up 0,4%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises gains 0,6% on expectations of new interventions to support the restart of the Chinese economy. “There is still a need for a package of measures to address macro problems,” Si Fu, China portfolio strategist at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg Television. In his opinion, investors want "a long-term plan capable of addressing the problems of real estate and local government debt", as well as direct stimuli to revive consumption. Tokyo down modestly -0,7%; The dollar-yen cross is at its highest level since November at 150,2, from 150,8 tonight. Seoul Kospi -0,9%, S&P ASX200 -0,7%.
Wall Street rebounds, but Arm Holding leaves 20% on the ground
After yesterday's declines, worst session since the beginning of February, Wall Street is on the rise. The impression is that the market had been looking for a pretext to trigger profit-taking for some time and found it in the inflation data. S&P500 and Dow Jones -1,4%, Nasdaq Composite -1,8%, Nasdaq 100 -1,6%, FANG Plus -1,44%. Paradoxically, i big tech, which should have corrected a little more just due to the amazing performance accumulated so far, have defended themselves admirably, while the small caps of the Russell 2000 index have been penalized more (-4%).
Nvidia it lost 0,2% at the end, rebounding by more than +3% from the opening lows. It maintains an excellent +46% since the beginning of the year. Netflix it lost 0,6%. Losses around 1% for Broadcom, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Meta. Among other AI players, AMD even managed to close up 0,4%, while ARM Holding it lost -20%, after doubling in price in four sessions
In Europe the losses aligned around 1% for everyone. The MSCI World index (3.240) closed with a loss of 1,2%, retreating from the record peak of 3.294 points reached the day before. Let's remember that he has returned from 14 positive weeks out of 15 and a little rest is healthy.
US Bonds negative, BTP runs
Negative session for all US government bonds, with losses of around 1% for the ten-year Treasury, whose yield rose to 4,33% from 4,18%. It's the highest it's been in three months. Eurozone governments are less penalized. the price of the German 0,8-year Bund fell by 2,39% after the rise in the Zew index with the yield rising to 2,36% from 0,3%. Excellent performance for the 3,93-year BTP which even managed to close with a slightly higher price, +154%, and the yield remained more or less at yesterday morning's levels at XNUMX%. The spread is at XNUMX, at a two-year low.
Eurozone. Inevitably, the US CPI data dampened expectations about the ECB's rate easing. Futures now estimate 110 basis points in 2024 from 120 previously priced. Numerous speeches scheduled today for the Frankfurt bankers including those of the vice president de Guindos and the Italian councilor Cipollone. Yesterday, chief economist Lane reiterated that inflation is cooling, but any rate cuts will depend on incoming data.
Brent (82,70 USD) and WTI (77,80 USD). Price at yesterday morning's levels. U.S. oil inventories rose by 8,52 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 9, according to sources close to API. Much more than the 2,6 million expected by analysts interviewed by Reuters. The data tends to be "bearish". However, someone pointed out that the figure probably reflects the interruption of 435.000 barrels per day at the Whiting refinery. The official data from the EIA comes out this afternoon.
Lovaglio: “Mps can run again”. Saipem, work resumes in Australia
Mount Paschi. The CEO, Louis Lovaglio, says in an interview with Il Corriere della Sera that consolidation among banks “would be an important step in the direction of being more competitive. It is clear that MPS is capable, like other banks, of continuing to grow on its own, but I think that the consolidation process is inevitable and useful. It is only a matter of time". As for the performance of the stock on the stock market, Lovaglio believes that "there is still good room for growth in the stock market value".
nexi. The F2i fund presented an offer for the interbank network, the infrastructure approximately 208 thousand kilometers long which allows credit institutions, post offices, the Bank of Italy and other financial players to regulate the debit and credit relationships generated by the transactions of users. Terna. La Stampa writes that at the beginning of February the group's leaders met the Libyan Renewable Energy Authority in Rome to discuss a new energy interconnection between the two countries. The newspaper estimates that the investment for a maxi cable should be around 2 billion euros. Unicredit has agreed with the unions on the distribution of a productivity bonus of up to 2.200 euros for all 37.000 employees of the bank in Italy, says a Fabi note. The bonus agreement (Vap, added value per employee) refers to 2023 and is approximately 40% higher than that defined for the previous year. Tod's. L Catterton owned 13% of the luxury group's capital as of February 4,15, says a Tod's note. Saipem. The oil service said that the Australian regulator has given a favorable opinion on the resumption of operations with its Castorone pipe-laying vessel after the accident on January 30 in the Australian offshore which caused a stop to pipe-laying activities in the gas pipeline.
