Today could be the day of rebound, after the slide that characterized yesterday across all markets. The Asian stock markets have already tried to recover from the lows and the European ones are expected to show positive signs.
Yesterday it was above all the words of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, come out as one cold shower on market expectations on rates. Powell noted that recent data shows a lack of further progress on the inflation front. Confidence about a sustainable decline in inflation towards the 2% target “will probably take more time,” the Fed chair added, stressing that it is “appropriate” to give monetary policy more time to work. Words that indicate the Fed will keep rates high longer in light of persistent inflation.
The future on the Eurostoxx50 marks a +0,08% like the US futures (+0,15% on the Dow Jones and +0,09% on the S&P500).
“It appears that stocks have lost some momentum so far in April, but the recent weakness is barely noticeable compared to even normal market declines. We wouldn't be surprised if investors used this recalibration of Fed rate expectations as an excuse to take a breather, but for us the fundamentals of the broader uptrend in equities remain intact,” underlined Antonio Tognoli of Cfo Sim.
Morgan Stanley's rise stands out on Wall Street, Tesla plummets
Yesterday the main US stock indexes closed with fractional changes. The Dow Jones it gained 0,17% to 37.799 points, while the S&P500 recorded a fractional decline of 0,21% to 5.051 points. A minus also for the Nasdaq (-0,12% to 15.865 points). Of note yesterday was the positive closing of Morgan Stanley with a +2,47% to 89,19 dollars: the financial giant ended the 1st quarter of 2024 with a profit per share that was significantly better than the analysts' consensus. UnitedHealth Group also did very well (+5,22% to $468,89), after the release of the quarterly results: the company closed the 1st quarter of 2024 with earnings per share of $6,91, significantly higher than consensus of analysts. A decidedly negative day instead Tesla (-2,71% to 157,11 dollars). The ten-year US T bond is trading sideways at 4,64% and futures on the Nasdaq have returned positive for 0,2%
Asia is trying to recover. Morgan Stanley cuts jobs in China
The markets in Asia they try to digest the words of the Fed governor. At 7 am Italian time Nikkei recovers from the lows and drops 0,55%, the Hang Seng is below parity, Shanghai jumps by 1,07% after China's GDP grew beyond expectations in the first quarter. Morgan Stanley plans to start cutting about 50 investment banking jobs in Asia-Pacific this week, at least 80% of them in Hong Kong and China, Bloomberg reported. These are the largest reductions in recent years for Morgan Stanley in China, its target market in Asia.
Il Australian government he committed himself to increase defense spending of more than 50 billion Australian dollars (32 billion US dollars) over the next decade. In the background, tensions with a China that is increasingly expanding into the waters of Southeast Asia. The government therefore plans greater spending for the surface fleet, long-range missile capacity and for the growth of the armed forces which will increase the budget of Defense from 2% to 2,4% of gross domestic product. Richard Marles, defense minister, described the commitment as one of the most important in recent decades.
Gold and oil remain in decline
The price of WTI is falling to 84,81 dollars per barrel (-0,64%) and that of Brent to 89,52 dollars per barrel (-0,56%). The price of gold also fell (-0,64% to 2.392 dollars per ounce) because the Fed's hawkish comments support the dollar. However, bullion prices remain close to recent peaks as lingering concerns about a war between Iran and Israel keep demand for safe haven assets active.
European stock markets seen starting on the rise
The first indications on European markets suggest an upward start. The future on the Eurostoxx50 marks a +0,08% like the US futures (+0,15% on the Dow Jones and +0,09% on the S&P500).
Il dollar remains on the rise against the euro, which is worth 1,061 (-0,06%). The BTP-Bund spread is at 144 points, with the yield on the 3,9-year BTP at XNUMX%.
Yesterday the main European stock exchanges closed under the sign of sales: the Euro Stoxx 50 index closed down by 1,5%, while on Piazza Affari the Ftse Mib index closed the session with an increase of 0,56% at 33.954,28 points. Sales also on the German Dax (-1,3%), on the French Cac40 (-1,4%) and on the Spanish Ibex35 (-1,5%).
What to follow today
In Milan, watch out for Mps, Stellantis, Ferrari, Iveco, Campari, Saes Getters and Brunello Cucinelli. Waiting today for IMF-World Bank meeting and European Council, as well as some macro data. Speeches by some ECB members are also scheduled (Cipollone's at 11am, De Cos's at 17pm and Schnabel's at 17pm), starting with that of the president, Christine Lagarde, at 45pm. The Fed's Beige Book will be published at 19pm and a speech by Loretta J. Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, is expected at 45pm.
This morning they will be published inflation data Eurozone final March (preliminary: +0,8% month-on-month, +2,4% year-on-year; consensus: +0,6% month-on-month, +2,4% year-on-year) and the core inflation (preliminary: +3,1% yoy; consensus: +3,1% yoy).
Monte dei Paschi di Siena Bank successfully concluded the placement of a Covered Bond issue with a 5-year maturity, intended for Italian and foreign institutional investors, for an amount of 750 million euros. A note reports this. This is the first issue of European Covered Bond (Premium) carried out by the Bank after the transposition of the European harmonization directive on covered bonds, which allows for further diversification of financing sources. Orders exceeded 2,3 billion euros, allowing the coupon to be set at the level of 3,5%, at a re-offer price of 99,919%.
The luxury giant lvmh reported a 3% increase in first-quarter sales, marking a slowdown as rising prices prompted more shoppers to hold off on spending thousands of dollars. The data reflects the comparison with the same period in 2023, when sales were boosted by the abolition of Covid-19 restrictions in mainland China, LVMH's key market. Concerns over the prolonged global slowdown that has hit the stocks of luxury companies over the last year have also had an impact. The group, which includes brands Louis Vuitton, Tiffany & Co. and Bulgari, said sales for the quarter ended in March rose 3% on an organic basis to 20,69 billion euros, in line with expectations of analysts.
On the Milanese price list, pay attention to stellantis after the shareholders approved at the meeting the compensation paid to the top management of the car manufacturer, including a package worth a maximum of 36,5 million euros for the CEO, Carlos Tavares. Furthermore, the group hopes to be able to start delivering the first cars from the joint venture with the Chinese Leapmotor by the end of this year. Today the shareholders of Ferrari e Iveco.
Enav, the company that manages civil air traffic in Italy, through its subsidiary IDS AirNav, an international leader in the supply of platforms for the management of aeronautical information, has been awarded a contract worth 720.000 euros with Fiji Airports LTD for the supply, installation, testing and commissioning of the CRONOS platform and the AMHS (Aeronautical Message Handling System), two advanced tools for the management and exchange of aeronautical information.
Saes prepares to leave the bag. Sgg Holding, the vehicle that controls the Milanese group with 30,1% of the shares, has made official its intention to launch a totalitarian takeover bid, aimed at delisting the securities - the 69,9% of capital which is currently public - from Piazza Affari. The unit consideration that will be offered is 26,3 euros, net of the super coupon of 12,5 euros that will be paid to members at the next budget meeting, valid for 2023. At the stock market close on Tuesday 16 April, the stock was worth 36,45 euros. The premium calculated on the closing date of Monday 15 April is 7,5%.
From Nora has sold the business Hyde Marine UVa Optimarin AS, a Norwegian company operating in the ballast water treatment sector. Piquadro it closed the 2023/2024 financial year on March 31 with revenues growing by 3,6% to 180,3 million. Remaining in the luxury sector, revenue data for the first quarter of 2024 is expected Brunello Cucinelli. Citi confirmed its buy rating and target price at 10,50 euros as well as opening a positive 90-day catalyst watch on the stock Campari.
