European markets they open uncertainly this morning, trying to metabolize on the one hand the defeat of Le Pen's right in France, on the other the victory of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which represents the populist wing of the New Popular Front and which for now excludes agreements with Macron's center: from which we deduce that a majority leading France now. Meanwhile, the contents flaunted by Mélenchon are worrying and risk causing the French public budget to slip: the leader of La France Insoumise immediately proposed the suspension of the Macron's pension reform which raises the retirement age from 60 to 64, the increase in the minimum wage and the price freeze. L'euro is falling against the dollar at the beginning, while futures indicate an open weak in the stock markets.
“The main risk that markets perceive is that a new government will introduce a series of less market-friendly fiscal and regulatory policies, including tax increases, an overhaul of pension reforms to raise the retirement age, higher minimum wages and a more generous indexation of salaries for public employees,” he underlines Antonio Tognoli by Cfo sim. “This would lead to higher business costs, less fiscal sustainability and higher interest rates, which would likely further weigh on local stock markets.”
Expectations for the next ones remain in the background Fed moves, with the Powells reporting to the Senate tomorrow and then to the House, while the data on US inflation is on the agenda next Friday. Furthermore, the quarterly very strong ones US banks.
Wall Street sets new records, job market still tonic. Expectations for rate cuts are growing
The main US stock indexes ended the last session of the week in positive territory, after the release of the data on employment slowed down in June but still quite toned. The data is carefully analyzed to understand the possible effects on monetary policy. After the report was released, the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut in September rose to 74% from 62% last week, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The Dow Jones rose by 0,17% to 39.576 points, while theS & P500 closed up 0,54% at 5.567 points, with the new historical maximum by 5.570 points. Plus sign also for the Nasdaq (+0,9% to 18.353 points, just below the new historical high of 18.366 points). The trend remained positive Tesla (+2,09% to 251,75 dollars), after the rally recorded in the previous sessions. Very good too Intel (+ 2,53%) and Apple (+ 2,16%). Ten-Year Treasury Notes to 4,29%, from 4,35% at the previous closing, due to the slowdown in employment in June.
In the USA, attention remains central to the presidential race. Joe Biden has restarted his electoral campaign and reiterates his desire to continue, but the number of Democratic members of Congress opposed to continuing is said to be increasing.
The crypto world is declining. Fears over the failed Mt. Gox
Bad day for Coinbase (-0,56% to $223,68), in the wake of the decline recorded by the main cryptocurrencies, in particular bitcoin. Bitcoin to 55.000 dollars, at the lowest level since February, -3,8%. Concerns are rising about possible sales by the creditors of the failed stock exchange Mt. Gox, once the largest in the world
Asian stock markets down, eyes on the Boj. Yen stronger
In Asia Pacific, the Nikkei index of Tokyo, closed down 0,32% at 40.780,70 points on Monday, but slightly up, close to the historical highsi, while the Topix it lost 0,58% to 2.867,51 points. In May, the Salaries base of Japanese workers have recorded the largest increase since 1993, it would therefore appear that the underlying wage trend may begin to support consumption and allow the Bank of Japan to raise i again rates of interest. Japan's current account surplus increases in May. According to the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF), a current account surplus of 2.849,9 billion yen was generated, up from the surplus of 2.050,5 billion in the previous month. Analysts' estimates were for a surplus to rise to 2.450 billion yen.
The bag of Taipei it is up 1,7%, a new record thanks to the push TSMC: +2,8%. The stock of the semiconductor manufacturing giant for third parties (including Apple and Nvidia) was promoted by Morgan Stanley. The stock market opened with a slight decline of India. On parity the KOSPI index of Alone.
In decline the bags of China. Hong Kong Hang Seng -1,3%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets -0,5%, weighed down by commercial concerns linked to the duties imposed by the EU and the USA. The focus is on the Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party which is expected to introduce further stimulus measures for the economy. Chinese trade and inflation data are expected over the weekend.
It is appreciated for the third consecutive session yen: the cross goes to 160,5.
Stock market today July 8st: what to follow
European stock markets should open lower, EuroStoxx50 index futures -0,34%. Before the markets opened, the euro fell slightly to 1,083, from 1,080 tonight. Keep an eye on the yield of the ten-year French OAT yields 3,21% and the Bund/OAT differential this morning is at 63 basis points. After Macron called the elections the French spread had lost around 30 bps.
On Friday the Ftse Mib in Milan closed down 0,3%, +2,5% for the week. The yield of the German Bund is at 2,55% and that of the BTP at 3,93%. The Italy-Germany spread is at 153 basis points. Petrolium. WTI at $83 a barrel. Brent at 86,5 dollars. Gold at 2.382 dollars an ounce, -0,4%.
Germans. Trade balance in May amounted to 24,9 billion euros, up compared to the previous 22,1 billion euros (the forecast was 19,9 billion euros).
Amplifon Friday marked the worst decline on the Milanese price list, leaving 6,49% on the ground at 31,12 euros, after having fluctuated between a minimum of 30,95 euros and a maximum of 33,1 euros. Some investment banks have revised downwards their financial estimates for the company for the 2nd quarter of 2024 and for the full year.
Saras. Consob has decided to resume examining the prospectus for the takeover bid promoted by Varas, a Vitol subsidiary, on the share capital of Saras. The deadline for examining the document has been set for July 12.
Avio. The ESA Council adopted a resolution on European launch services and the continuity of European access to space which lays the foundations for the marketing of the Vega launcher by Avio, its prime contractor.
Fineco Bank. Jefferies raises the rating to Buy. Pirelli HSBC raises its rating to Buy, target price at 6,40 euros. stellantis. Citi, lowering the target price from 22 to 19,50 euros (neutral rating).
